"How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Donald Trump has vowed to begin enacting the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history on Day 1 of his presidency, with one aide saying enforcement will begin “the moment that President Trump puts his hand on that Bible and takes the oath of office” on Monday. But just how large that operation is and how swiftly it can be carried out will be determined, in part, by whether the administration can clear a number of hurdles, immigration experts said. Those include pushback from some cities and local law enforcement agencies, a budget and staffing shortfall for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, lawsuits from advocacy and civil rights groups, and questions about the cooperation of countries needed to increase removal numbers. There are currently an estimated 11 million people in the United States who lack legal status. “I do not think that it will be possible to deport the entire unauthorized immigrant population,” Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst with the U.S. Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute, told NBC News. Trump’s first administration removed unauthorized immigrants nearly 1.2 million times, according to data from the Department of Homeland Security. The Obama administration removed unauthorized immigrants 2.9 million times in his first term and 1.9 million in his second. The figures can include people who were deported more than once. “The first Trump administration didn’t reach those levels partly because of decreased cooperation with local and state law enforcement, due to in many cases sanctuary policies and laws,” Bush-Joseph said. “This time around, we have many sheriffs and local law enforcement departments on record saying either that they are willing to support the mass deportation plans or that they will not.”

She said she will be watching for a potential “growing divide between red and blue states and localities.” Democratic city and state leaders across the country have already promised to oppose Trump’s plans, and in some cases have passed ordinances intended to shield undocumented immigrants from his efforts to deport them. Meanwhile, Texas has flexed its own law enforcement power at the border and positioned itself to be a key player in Trump’s immigration agenda as other conservative states have passed anti-sanctuary policies. During the last decade, about 70% to 75% of arrests by ICE in the interior of the United States were handed over from other law enforcement agencies, including local and state jails as well as federal prison, according to the Immigrant Legal Resource Center. As Trump’s second administration unfolds, there could be efforts by some places to fully maintain their sanctuary status, while others could cooperate in cases deemed to be higher priority, such as those who have criminal backgrounds or are deemed national security threats, said Andrea Flores, the vice president of immigration policy and campaigns at FWD.us, which describes itself as a bipartisan organization that advocates for immigration reform. “But cities will continue to be a front-line defense because they’ve had to provide a patchwork of protections for their population,” said Flores, an immigration policy adviser to the Biden and Obama administrations. Trump told NBC News last month that his administration would first focus on deporting criminals and then expand its operations.

The Trump administration’s ability to enact that plan at the pace and scale he seeks could also be hindered by legal action from civil rights and immigrant advocacy groups. Another potential major obstacle is the $230 million ICE budget shortfall, even before the costs associated with mass deportations, two U.S. officials familiar with the figure exclusively told NBC News in December. “ICE is already operating at a shortfall. Unless and until Congress provides a large amount of additional funding for the enforcement aspects of the mass deportation plans, it could really take time to ramp up,” Bush-Joseph said. Negotiations on spending will begin in January, when Republicans have control of the White House and the Senate and narrow control of the House, but it remains unclear when and how Congress will agree to funding. Trump’s mass deportation policy could cost more than an estimated $88 billion, according to the American Immigration Council, an immigration research and immigrant advocacy group. Trump previously told NBC News that there was “no price tag” when it came to his mass deportation plan. Negotiations on spending will begin in January, when Republicans have control of the White House and the Senate and narrow control of the House, but it remains unclear when and how Congress will agree to funding.

“The fact is that even when Trump came in with his tough talk, he didn’t dramatically increase deportations,” Su said of Trump’s first term. “Part of that was resources, part of that was funding.” “The Biden administration made a really concerted push in negotiating with other countries to get more to accept their nationals back,” she said. “That includes a historic agreement with Mexico to take back third-country nationals, but in return for the establishment of lawful pathways, such as humanitarian parole processes.” Trump has threatened to use tariffs to try to compel countries to take their nationals back, and “it’s not clear what other countries would seek in return for or in exchange for accepting their own nationals or third-country nationals” during his administration, she said. Trump’s mass deportation policy could cost more than an estimated $88 billion, according to the American Immigration Council, an immigration research and immigrant advocacy group. Trump previously told NBC News that there was “no price tag” when it came to his mass deportation plan.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/qu ... rcna188064

Money and manpower, key items in any deportation plan. This won't happen as quickly as some predicted.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Leaders of several sanctuary cities where officials had prominently rejected Donald Trump’s first-term immigration policies are shifting their tone as he prepares to take office again and carry out his mass deportation plans. Some local officials have softened on how closely they want their cities to be identified with the “sanctuary city” label and have pledged to work with federal immigration authorities. But others have doubled down on their cities being sanctuaries for undocumented immigrants and reject any notion that they’d cooperate with a Trump administration seeking to deport millions of them. In Philadelphia, Mayor Cherelle Parker and District Attorney Larry Krasner, both Democrats, seem to have shied away from some of the rhetoric celebrating the city as a sanctuary — as well as the oppositional approach city officials took in the past. Asked whether he still considered Philadelphia a sanctuary city, Krasner did not directly answer. “Sanctuary city can mean a lot of things, and so that whole discussion can get confusing and maybe generate more heat than light,” he said in an interview with NBC News. Sanctuary city is not an official term. Rather, it refers to a city, county or municipality that has enacted laws that either explicitly or effectively prevent or limit local officials from cooperating with federal immigration authorities as part of a broader effort to make undocumented immigrants feel safe. Parker, the mayor, was asked during an interview last week with NBC10 in Philadelphia if she considered Philly a sanctuary city. She danced around the question, replying, “I believe that in America, our diversity is by far our greatest strength.” “We’re a city made up of neighborhoods, and I too believe that our diversity is our greatest strength,” she said.

“As Mayor Parker made abundantly clear after the November election, the Parker Administration remains laser-focused on the agenda that Philadelphians elected her to implement: making Philadelphia a safer, cleaner, greener City, with access to economic opportunity for all,” the spokesperson, Joe Grace, said in an email to NBC News. Grace added that the city’s 2016 executive order on ICE detainers remains in place. In 2016, Jim Kenney, then the mayor of Philadelphia, signed an executive order barring the city from honoring some ICE detainers (a detainer is a request that local officials hold an immigrant who is due to be released from custody for an additional 48 hours to allow ICE to take them into its custody). In New York City, a shift on immigration policy has been underway for several years. Democratic Mayor Eric Adams, who met with Trump in Florida on Friday, has indicated his interest in working with the incoming administration, including on immigration issues. New York has struggled to cope with a surge in migrant arrivals in recent years — a “crisis” that would “destroy” the city, Adams said in 2023. Adams repeatedly criticized the Biden administration on the issue, saying it hadn’t done enough to help New York and other cities. He also met with incoming border czar Tom Homan in December. While Adams continues to call New York a sanctuary city, he has signaled a desire to change the city’s laws in a way that would allow city officials to cooperate with federal immigration and law enforcement officials to deport undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Last month, he said migrants accused of crimes should not necessarily receive due process. His broader approach is a stark contrast from that of his predecessor, Bill de Blasio, who was New York City’s mayor during Trump’s first term.

Meanwhile, leaders in other big sanctuary cities have maintained an aggressively oppositional posture to the incoming Trump administration on immigration issues. In the weeks following Trump’s victory in November, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, a Democrat, said the city “will not bend or break” on its sanctuary laws. He told The Washington Post in November that “there will not be any cooperation” with ICE deportations. And last week, the Chicago City Council voted down a proposal that would have eased laws barring city officials from cooperating with federal immigration authorities who are targeting individuals involved in certain violent and drug-related crimes.
Denver Mayor Mike Johnston, a Democrat, has been even more outspoken on preserving his city’s sanctuary laws during the second Trump administration. “We won’t change that, because those are one of our core values,” Johnston told Colorado news website Denverite in November. “We’re not going to sell out those values to anyone. We’re not going to be bullied into changing them.” In that interview, Johnston also raised the idea that Denver police, as well as Denver citizens, could band together to prevent federal immigration authorities from deporting undocumented immigrants. It’s like the Tiananmen Square moment with the rose and the gun, right?” he said. “If Donald Trump tries to break the law and abuse his power, he will get no help from us,” the statement said, adding that the mayor is “considering a number of options to strengthen protections for all our residents.” “Denver is proud to be a welcoming city, and we will do everything in our power to protect those who live here,” the statement continued.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigr ... rcna188122
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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To bring the entire population of undocumented people to heel, all's need be done is to scare people pretty deeply by deporting a slug of folks. All the undocs will either flee or chill, making no problem and working for peanuts. Even citizens of diminished capacity will fear the Big Man and will make no waves. We have seen this playbook before. Do not obey in advance. Think and resist cleanly.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eye Jack

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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He'll do some roundups starting day one, but to move a large number of people Trump needs billions from Congress and personnel, which takes time to hire and train. Republicans have a 4 vote majority in the Senate and a 4 vote majority in the House right now, not large majorities. Democrats selectively forget that Obama did deportations during his two terms. In 2022 approximately 11 million unauthorized people were living in the US, 40% of those were people who overstayed their tourist, student, business or other visas. Every country in the world would deport people who overstay their visas.
https://www.abc15.com/news/state/the-im ... king-about
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Pronus wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:32 am Some want to throw away people already here, others believe tossing them into the trash before they can be born is the way to go. Human life, cheap from beginning to end.
Sorry...who believes in throwing people in the trash before they can be born? Is this an attempt to say that people who want to allow women a choice in whether or not they should give birth, are people who want to throw people in the trash?
My Avatar, "The Eagles Nest". The Southern states are cracked, rotten; the eagle says "Annihilation to traitors." A response to the confederate flag and the Gadsden flag waivers.

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Here's a guy who instructs ChatGPT to predict, based on digesting all the available information, about the expected results of many orange Day One Exec Orders. Most interesting. The juiciest stuff takes the first ten minutes.

[youtu_be]https://youtu.be/kNqBSL57wrA?si=szPu47JfYhZG_Vti[/youtu_be]

tl;dr: it's not pretty.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eye Jack

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Denvertaco07 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:38 pm
Pronus wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:32 am Some want to throw away people already here, others believe tossing them into the trash before they can be born is the way to go. Human life, cheap from beginning to end.
Sorry...who believes in throwing people in the trash before they can be born? Is this an attempt to say that people who want to allow women a choice in whether or not they should give birth, are people who want to throw people in the trash?
I said what I said. My opinion. Don't like or agree, that's up to you. I don't believe in an immortal soul, injected at conception, but do know that people have been charged with murder when an unborn human has it's life taken against the will and wishes of the mother.

https://homicidecenter.org/wp-content/u ... micide.pdf

https://studentbriefs.law.gwu.edu/clb/2 ... -autonomy/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unborn_Vi ... olence_Act

Cake and eat it too. It is not so simple as some would have it. Messy. Had your mother chose to evict you prematurely, I guess someone else would have made a similar remark. Had my mother done so, and so, and so and...

I think about this often, and have no answer. You don't know me, nor I you. If you have an answer that is compassionate to all parties involved, share.

This is going off OP. I apologize. Forgive me Mod, for I have sinned.

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Pronus wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2025 8:03 am
Denvertaco07 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 9:38 pm
Pronus wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 8:32 am Some want to throw away people already here, others believe tossing them into the trash before they can be born is the way to go. Human life, cheap from beginning to end.
Sorry...who believes in throwing people in the trash before they can be born? Is this an attempt to say that people who want to allow women a choice in whether or not they should give birth, are people who want to throw people in the trash?
I said what I said. My opinion. Don't like or agree, that's up to you. I don't believe in an immortal soul, injected at conception, but do know that people have been charged with murder when an unborn human has it's life taken against the will and wishes of the mother.

https://homicidecenter.org/wp-content/u ... micide.pdf

https://studentbriefs.law.gwu.edu/clb/2 ... -autonomy/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unborn_Vi ... olence_Act

Cake and eat it too. It is not so simple as some would have it. Messy. Had your mother chose to evict you prematurely, I guess someone else would have made a similar remark. Had my mother done so, and so, and so and...

I think about this often, and have no answer. You don't know me, nor I you. If you have an answer that is compassionate to all parties involved, share.

This is going off OP. I apologize. Forgive me Mod, for I have sinned.
This has never been a Groupthink forum, we got into a bitter disagreement over Israel and Hamas earlier this year. Being liberal doesn't mean we conform to the platform of the Democratic or any other political party or wings of a party. Biden and other Democrats have said they were personally opposed to abortion, but don't want to make their personal views the law of the land.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: "How quickly Trump will be able to carry out his mass deportation plan depends on these factors"

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Deportation raids that were set to begin in at least one sanctuary city the day after President Trump’s inauguration are on hold for now after an effort to keep the element of surprise, multiple law enforcement sources told The Post. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in Chicago were told to stand down and that the operations were called off for now, sources said. The Post previously reported that ICE was planning a “big f–king operation” starting Tuesday in multiple sanctuary cities, including New York City. Incoming border czar Tom Homan told Fox News Sunday that ICE was considering rescheduling the raids to maintain the element of surprise against illegal migrants who pose “public safety threats and national security threats.”

“We’re not reconsidering any operations, there was a leak in Chicago so we’re looking at that leak and finding out how’s that affect officer safety concerns. Chicago’s not off the table, but we’re reconsidering when and how we do it,” said Homan. “When those bad guys have a heads up that we’re hitting you at this time this day, it raises officer safety concerns,” he added. The Wall Street Journal broke the news of the raids on Friday, reporting that as many as 200 ICE officers were set to deploy for the Windy City operation alone. ICE officers have since received a warning not to disclose information about upcoming raids, sources said. The agency was previously pausing arrests in certain offices to make room in detention centers for the targets of the Chicago raids, said one source. “We aren’t arresting anyone and bringing them into custody, making room for what may happen next week,” said the source.

Homan vowed to supporters at an event in Chicago in December that the incoming admin would first target the Windy City. “Chicago’s in trouble because your mayor sucks and your governor sucks,” the former acting ICE chief said. Homan signaled Friday on Fox News that ICE raids are on the table in several cities after Inauguration Day. “It’s going to be a big raid all across the country,” the incoming border czar told Fox News host Jesse Watters. “Chicago is just one of many places. We’ve got 24 [ICE] field offices across the country. On Tuesday, ICE is finally going to go out and do their job. We’re going to take the handcuffs off ICE and let them go arrest criminal aliens. That’s what’s going to happen.”
https://nypost.com/2025/01/20/us-news/i ... uguration/

They talked big, but there are a lot of moving parts involved and it won't happen overnight. Trump is meeting with the Republican leaders of the House and Senate today, we'll see what happens on the immigration front.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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