https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/qu ... rcna188064Donald Trump has vowed to begin enacting the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history on Day 1 of his presidency, with one aide saying enforcement will begin “the moment that President Trump puts his hand on that Bible and takes the oath of office” on Monday. But just how large that operation is and how swiftly it can be carried out will be determined, in part, by whether the administration can clear a number of hurdles, immigration experts said. Those include pushback from some cities and local law enforcement agencies, a budget and staffing shortfall for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, lawsuits from advocacy and civil rights groups, and questions about the cooperation of countries needed to increase removal numbers. There are currently an estimated 11 million people in the United States who lack legal status. “I do not think that it will be possible to deport the entire unauthorized immigrant population,” Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst with the U.S. Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute, told NBC News. Trump’s first administration removed unauthorized immigrants nearly 1.2 million times, according to data from the Department of Homeland Security. The Obama administration removed unauthorized immigrants 2.9 million times in his first term and 1.9 million in his second. The figures can include people who were deported more than once. “The first Trump administration didn’t reach those levels partly because of decreased cooperation with local and state law enforcement, due to in many cases sanctuary policies and laws,” Bush-Joseph said. “This time around, we have many sheriffs and local law enforcement departments on record saying either that they are willing to support the mass deportation plans or that they will not.”
She said she will be watching for a potential “growing divide between red and blue states and localities.” Democratic city and state leaders across the country have already promised to oppose Trump’s plans, and in some cases have passed ordinances intended to shield undocumented immigrants from his efforts to deport them. Meanwhile, Texas has flexed its own law enforcement power at the border and positioned itself to be a key player in Trump’s immigration agenda as other conservative states have passed anti-sanctuary policies. During the last decade, about 70% to 75% of arrests by ICE in the interior of the United States were handed over from other law enforcement agencies, including local and state jails as well as federal prison, according to the Immigrant Legal Resource Center. As Trump’s second administration unfolds, there could be efforts by some places to fully maintain their sanctuary status, while others could cooperate in cases deemed to be higher priority, such as those who have criminal backgrounds or are deemed national security threats, said Andrea Flores, the vice president of immigration policy and campaigns at FWD.us, which describes itself as a bipartisan organization that advocates for immigration reform. “But cities will continue to be a front-line defense because they’ve had to provide a patchwork of protections for their population,” said Flores, an immigration policy adviser to the Biden and Obama administrations. Trump told NBC News last month that his administration would first focus on deporting criminals and then expand its operations.
The Trump administration’s ability to enact that plan at the pace and scale he seeks could also be hindered by legal action from civil rights and immigrant advocacy groups. Another potential major obstacle is the $230 million ICE budget shortfall, even before the costs associated with mass deportations, two U.S. officials familiar with the figure exclusively told NBC News in December. “ICE is already operating at a shortfall. Unless and until Congress provides a large amount of additional funding for the enforcement aspects of the mass deportation plans, it could really take time to ramp up,” Bush-Joseph said. Negotiations on spending will begin in January, when Republicans have control of the White House and the Senate and narrow control of the House, but it remains unclear when and how Congress will agree to funding. Trump’s mass deportation policy could cost more than an estimated $88 billion, according to the American Immigration Council, an immigration research and immigrant advocacy group. Trump previously told NBC News that there was “no price tag” when it came to his mass deportation plan. Negotiations on spending will begin in January, when Republicans have control of the White House and the Senate and narrow control of the House, but it remains unclear when and how Congress will agree to funding.
“The fact is that even when Trump came in with his tough talk, he didn’t dramatically increase deportations,” Su said of Trump’s first term. “Part of that was resources, part of that was funding.” “The Biden administration made a really concerted push in negotiating with other countries to get more to accept their nationals back,” she said. “That includes a historic agreement with Mexico to take back third-country nationals, but in return for the establishment of lawful pathways, such as humanitarian parole processes.” Trump has threatened to use tariffs to try to compel countries to take their nationals back, and “it’s not clear what other countries would seek in return for or in exchange for accepting their own nationals or third-country nationals” during his administration, she said. Trump’s mass deportation policy could cost more than an estimated $88 billion, according to the American Immigration Council, an immigration research and immigrant advocacy group. Trump previously told NBC News that there was “no price tag” when it came to his mass deportation plan.
Money and manpower, key items in any deportation plan. This won't happen as quickly as some predicted.