The polls across all seven swing states — and the models using those polls to try to predict a winner — are about as close as they could possibly be. This election holds two very different futures for the country. But the polls going into Election Day don't even provide the merest hunch of whether former President Trump or Vice President Harris will win. Breaking it down: Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" has a virtual coinflip: Trump with a 50.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, Harris with a 49.2% chance, and a 0.4% chance of a 269-269 result that would throw the election to the House of Representatives. FiveThirtyEight's model has a similar result, with Trump winning 53% of their simulations and Harris 47%. The Economist's model is at precisely 50/50, thanks to some late momentum for Harris.

The models generally agree that out of the seven swing states: Trump is narrowly favored in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Harris is very slightly favored in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania and Nevada are incredibly close — and Pennsylvania is likely to swing the election one way or the other. The models are largely based on the same polls, so it's not a huge surprise that they have such similar results. The results also might not be quite as close as the polls suggest — if they are even slightly skewed toward one candidate or the other, a 50/50 race could turn into an Electoral College rout.

The betting markets have also been narrowing after weeks of favoring Trump. Kalshi shows Trump with a 54% chance vs. 46% for Harris, PredictIt shows a coinflip, while Polymarket gives Trump a 56% chance of victory. There are reasons to take the prediction markets with a grain of salt, including the disproportionately large wagers that tilt the odds one way or another, Axios' Brady Dale and Nathan Bomey report.

highdesert wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 1:45 pm
Relax, we have no control over the result. It's an election not the end of the world.

CDFingers wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 3:33 pm Buy plenty of beer, because beer will get you through times of no decision better than no decision will get you through times of no beer.

CDF

jc57 wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 3:58 pm Beer sounds like just the right thing. Or maybe whiskey. Or both!

CDFingers wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 4:08 pm Here is Belle laying out how TOS will declare victory before all the votes are counted, and what others may do.

[youtu_be]https://youtu.be/Lj_dgsWl7vk?si=tPmMC3Gfs0_ayX2H[/youtu_be]

CDF

tailgunner wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 6:55 pm

CDFingers wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 4:08 pm Here is Belle laying out how TOS will declare victory before all the votes are counted, and what others may do.

[youtu_be]https://youtu.be/Lj_dgsWl7vk?si=tPmMC3Gfs0_ayX2H[/youtu_be]

CDF

Ok, what happened to the real Beau?
He looks much better!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSTIZ4hY_lY

CDFingers wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 7:40 pm

tailgunner wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 6:55 pm

CDFingers wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 4:08 pm Here is Belle laying out how TOS will declare victory before all the votes are counted, and what others may do.

[youtu_be]https://youtu.be/Lj_dgsWl7vk?si=tPmMC3Gfs0_ayX2H[/youtu_be]

CDF

Ok, what happened to the real Beau?
He looks much better!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSTIZ4hY_lY

Beau apparently got tired, so Belle is there. I think the same writers and all work behind the scenes. She's a little sparkier than Beau. Belle does give better screen than Beau, yes.

CDF

tailgunner wrote: Mon Nov 04, 2024 6:44 pm
ONE BOURBON, ONE SCOTCH AND ONE BEER.

That's what I always order

The results of a poll depend on the opinions of the voters and the decisions of pollsters. Decisions about how to weight polls to match the expected composition of the electorate can move the results of a poll up to 8 points. This is true even if pollsters are making perfectly reasonable decisions on how to weight their survey data, as survey researchers have been forced to consider new methods and ideas for weighting and addressing falling response rates following polling misses in 2016 and 2020.

But the fact that so many polls are reporting the exact same margins and results raises a troubling possibility: that some pollsters are making adjustments in such similar ways that those choices are causing the results to bunch together, creating a potential illusion of certainty — or that some pollsters are even looking to others’ results to guide their own (i.e., “herding”). If so, the artificial similarity of polls may be creating a false impression that may not play out on Election Day. We could well be in for a very close election. But there’s also a significant chance one candidate or the other could sweep every swing state and win the presidency somewhat comfortably, at least compared to the evenly balanced picture in the polls.