2024 Presidential Polling

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We're about 16 months from the 2024 General Election. Trump, in spite of his indictments is the leading Republican candidate and Biden is leading the two Democratic alternatives.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7548.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -8171.html


Right now the polling of Trump v Biden in the 2024 General Election is within the margin of error, it's a tossup who will win.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7383.html

The generic poll on who Americans want running Congress is also a tossup.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7969.html

Democrats have the most senators up for reelection in 2024 - 19 and 3 Independents who caucus with Democrats. Joe Manchin if he runs in WV and Jon Tester of MT are the two most vulnerable, also Kyrten Sinema who is now an Independent. Doesn't look like any vulnerable Republican senate seats at this time.

Joe Manchin has been toying with running a 3rd party campaign in 2024, if he decides to not to run for reelection.
Democrats are mounting a coordinated mission to kill a third-party presidential bid — and it’s coming soon to Capitol Hill. Officials from the progressive group MoveOn and centrist group Third Way are planning to brief Senate Democratic chiefs of staff on July 27, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO. It’s part of an effort to educate Democrats about the risk that a third-party bid funded by the well-heeled group No Labels could pose to President Joe Biden — particularly if centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) runs for president rather than reelection.
The alliance between the party’s leading centrists and prominent liberals to publicly squash a third-party effort demonstrates how seriously Democrats fear that a spoiler candidate could tip the election to Donald Trump or another Republican candidate. If next year’s presidential ballot is as close as 2016 or 2020 were, Democrats worry that Trump-weary voters could defect from Biden to an alternative candidate — and just a few thousand of those defections could be decisive in the Electoral College. Liz Cattaneo, a spokesperson for MoveOn, said that the group is “working with a broad range of Democratic organizations to stop No Labels from running a third-party presidential ticket.” She added that her organization is “committed to accountability for No Labels and to preventing right-wing extremists from winning back” the White House. No Labels is unbowed. Ryan Clancy, the group’s chief strategist, said that “it shouldn’t surprise anyone … that voters are more open to an independent than ever before. It’s why our polling shows an independent ticket has a viable path” to winning.
Manchin has argued that there’s little harm in his entertaining a third-party bid, and he’s refused to rule one out even as his colleagues try to talk him out of it. Both Democrats and Republicans are “being driven by business extremes” and catering to the “far right and far left,” he said in an interview on the topic last month. Briefing top Hill Democrats about No Labels is a clear move to get the party on the same page in opposition to the group’s work. And all these dynamics could make the difference between the Senate majority and minority come 2025: If Manchin runs for the White House instead of reelection in West Virginia, Democrats could end up losing both his Senate seat and the presidential race. A Manchin aide said that if his schedule permits, the senator’s chief of staff will attend the July 27 meeting. Manchin is the candidate most frequently mentioned as a potential recruit for No Labels, which is eyeing a budget as high as $70 million for its third-party initiative. But there’s also some private talk about former Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan or even Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona leading an alternative slate, though Hogan says he won’t run for president and Sinema generally stays away from such speculation.

Any of those three candidates on a presidential ballot could influence a close contest for the Electoral College next fall. Dritan Nesho, No Labels’ chief pollster, said that polling “shows an overwhelming opening for a third-party ticket before names are even announced and any campaign communicating the vision and issue positions is run.” Detractors counter that the group is wildly overstating its chances. “What we are trying to make clear to the people around No Labels, especially people thinking about running on their ticket, is that that is a preposterous pipe dream. And they can have an impact, but it isn’t by winning,” Bennett said. “They can have an impact by spoiling.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/0 ... n-00105183
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Democrats are mounting a coordinated mission to kill a third-party presidential bid — and it’s coming soon to Capitol Hill. Officials from the progressive group MoveOn and centrist group Third Way are planning to brief Senate Democratic chiefs of staff on July 27, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO. It’s part of an effort to educate Democrats about the risk that a third-party bid funded by the well-heeled group No Labels could pose to President Joe Biden — particularly if centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) runs for president rather than reelection.
Good, you won't see the terrorist party wanting a third party (or anyone else here) , well unless they want the democrats to lose the senate and POTUS that is. Omf
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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featureless wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 2:58 pm I wish Kennedy wasn't nuts. Sure wish I had someone to vote for.
Yup, RFK, Jr is really nutty with extremist views on more than just vaccines. Watching Biden at Windsor Castle to meet with the King and he looks and moves like a tired old man. About 30:38 mins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-JkulF-Bdk

If he backs out Harris and Newsom will battle to make the first announcement of their candidacy. Others on the Democratic side could be JD Pritzker of IL, Roy Cooper of NC, Gretchen Whitmer of MI and others. Each party has painted the other one as extremists and we only have two choices, there are no viable 3rd party candidates. We don't have to worry in blue CA, the Democratic nominee will get 54 electoral votes even if we don't check the president box.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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If TOS doesn't get the Repug nomination, he will run on a Turd party independent ticket. That also hangs on the chance he doesn't wind up behind bars on the Federal level. What happens if he gets the Repug nomination and is convicted of his charges?
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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highdesert wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 3:55 pm
featureless wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 2:58 pm I wish Kennedy wasn't nuts. Sure wish I had someone to vote for.
Yup, RFK, Jr is really nutty with extremist views on more than just vaccines. Watching Biden at Windsor Castle to meet with the King and he looks and moves like a tired old man. About 30:38 mins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-JkulF-Bdk

If he backs out Harris and Newsom will battle to make the first announcement of their candidacy. Others on the Democratic side could be JD Pritzker of IL, Roy Cooper of NC, Gretchen Whitmer of MI and others. Each party has painted the other one as extremists and we only have two choices, there are no viable 3rd party candidates. We don't have to worry in blue CA, the Democratic nominee will get 54 electoral votes even if we don't check the president box.
Since this is a gun forum, I’m going to say it, why can’t we have a non anti gun democrat.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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featureless wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 5:02 pm
CDFingers wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 4:41 pm Joe is in danger because old. God forbid they draft Newsom. We'd like to keep him.

CDFingers
:sick: better here than the Whitehouse, I suppose.
Well, he's sure got the buzzwords and the excellent record so far. From today's paper:
The governor, expected to be a future White House contestant, touted the 2023-2024 budget for the fiscal year that began this month as a model of Democratic financial stewardship, noting it built reserves and closed a nearly $32 billion shortfall.

“We’ve proven a paradigm: You don’t have to be profligate to be progressive,” Newsom said.
https://www.chicoer.com/2023/07/10/news ... an-energy/

It's hard to find fault with his "Democratic financial stewardship," facts being stubborn and all.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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TrueTexan wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 5:28 pm If TOS doesn't get the Repug nomination, he will run on a Turd party independent ticket. That also hangs on the chance he doesn't wind up behind bars on the Federal level. What happens if he gets the Repug nomination and is convicted of his charges?
Yep, Trump has hinted that if he isn't the Republican nominee that he will independently run for president, which would split Republicans. And if Manchin runs as the No Labels Party candidate that would split Democrats. Most Independents lean, but given two candidates they have a choice and would likely vote for the more centrist candidate.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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The Club for Growth is a wealthy Republican PAC which didn't support Trump in 2016 but did in 2022. They announced that they would not support him in 2024.
An outside group with ties to the conservative Club for Growth has formed in an effort to stop former President Donald Trump from winning the nomination. The group, Win it Back PAC, filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday. A person familiar with the group said its aim is to target Trump, who maintains a substantial lead over his Republican primary rivals in early state and national polling. It is not clear how much money Win it Back PAC is planning to spend. The filing appears to show a link to the influential Club for Growth, which over the last year has come out aggressively against the former president. The outfit’s designated agent is the Club for Growth’s president, David McIntosh.

Win it Back PAC’s treasurer, Adam Rozansky, has the same role with the Club for Growth. A Club for Growth representative declined to comment. While some Club for Growth officials are involved with the new political action committee, the Club for Growth itself is not expected to attack Trump in the primary. McIntosh, a former member of Congress from Indiana, came out firmly against Trump earlier this year, telling reporters that “the party should be open to another candidate.” The organization did not invite Trump to a donor retreat it held in Palm Beach, Fla., this spring, though it did invite other candidates seeking the GOP nomination.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/0 ... p-00105057

They started running this ad yesterday.






"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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YankeeTarheel wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 1:35 pm
CDFingers wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 1:12 pm Kennedy is a tabloid candidate. >ptui<

CDFingers
He's a batshit crazy POS and his father and mother would be ashamed of him
Voting for ruling families just goes against my principles even if they were not crazy. I simply can’t believe we are so limited on candidates. It’s either the same elite politicians running over and over or some elite families trying to continue a legacy.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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sikacz wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 6:39 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 1:35 pm
CDFingers wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 1:12 pm Kennedy is a tabloid candidate. >ptui<

CDFingers
He's a batshit crazy POS and his father and mother would be ashamed of him
Voting for ruling families just goes against my principles even if they were not crazy. I simply can’t believe we are so limited on candidates. It’s either the same elite politicians running over and over or some elite families trying to continue a legacy.
We have Legacy Colleges and Universities, we also have legacy political families. Whose sons and daughters went to the legacy colleges and universities. At least in Britain they put a title to the families that are the ruling class and a permanent seat in the upper house of parliament (House of Lords).
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Highdesert linked RCP polling averages, but it's worth remembering that RCP is a right-wing house that was never-Trump until December 2016, then switched sides so fast it made your head spin. They didn't do well in 2020 because of a heavy reliance on bad pollsters who told them what they wanted to hear. Sean Trende is an excellent though, and worth reading in the sense of "know thy enemy."

Nate Silver did better than RCP did in 2020, but he's adrift at the moment. Sam Wang at http://election.princeton.edu/ has essentially automated his poll aggregation, which did fine in 2020 but isn't really the focus of his site anymore. Despite theoretical advantages, his preference for medians over averages hasn't proven to be more predictive of outcomes. Even the original poll averaging site https://electoral-vote.com/ hasn't gotten their horse race metrics running yet for 2024. Simple poll aggregators remain susceptible to systemic polling biases, as we saw in 2016.

That leaves us with modeling. We all remember Nate Silver for his poll aggregation site at 538, but rabid political followers might remember his start as Poblano forecasting the 2008 Democratic primary between Obama and Clinton. With limited polling data to work with, he relied heavily on demographic models of the statewide electorate for each primary, with excellent results. He's still a grade-A asshole, but the approach has held up - demographics are highly predictive of electoral preferences.

In 2022, I found Split Ticket to be one of the better resources out there. https://split-ticket.org/
Initial Presidential ratings here - https://split-ticket.org/2023/06/02/our ... l-ratings/
Senate 2024 here - https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our ... e-ratings/
House - https://split-ticket.org/house-2024-ratings/

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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There are polling aggregators that average polls and there are political forecasters who make predictions sometimes based on polling, sometimes based on historical voting patterns. And there are sites that mix in news, opinion and other topics. RCP's news/opinion area has articles from both sides of the political spectrum, I only look at the polling aggregator. 538 does forecasting on politics, but also did it on sports. RCP and 538 don't list all the same pollsters so I tend to look at both. Right now I'm leery of 538 under the new management since Nate Silver left and the RCP format is easier to read. RCP and 538 have prediction models, 538s model was off in 2020 and I haven't found RCPs predictions that accurate.

The pundits I look at for their predictions have been around a long time, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA), the Cook Political Report and Inside Election, the three have been making mostly accurate predictions for a very long time and they are non-partisan. All you have to do is listen to Dave Wasserman of Cook for 5 minutes, he has an encyclopedic knowledge of all US House districts and past elections. Anyone can build a site and make political predictions and some are blatantly partisan. I don't know that much about Split Ticket, time will tell how accurate it is.

I don't follow Sam Wang regularly, I do remember him eating a bug after predicting that Hillary would win in 2016. He's at Princeton teaching computer science.

538 polling aggregator:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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Depending on the bias and agenda of pollsters, I’m suspicious of their value. At times it’s easy to see and think polls drive election results. For that reason it’s extremely important to question a pollster’s bias and leaning. Elections should be be free of king makers and media which pollsters have become a part of should stick to neutrally reporting information with as little bias as possible. That’s not likely in a corporate controlled media world. It’s pretty much a lost cause to think of the press as the fourth leg of our democracy.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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RFK, Jr who is polling at 14.4% among Democrats for the presidential nomination is out with more strange statements.
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dished out wild COVID-19 conspiracy theories this week during a press event at an Upper East Side restaurant, claiming the bug was a genetically engineered bioweapon that may have been “ethnically targeted” to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.

Kennedy floated the idea during a question-and-answer portion of raucous booze and fart-filled dinner at Tony’s Di Napoli on East 63d Street. “COVID-19. There is an argument that it is ethnically targeted. COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately,” Kennedy said. “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.” “We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact,” Kennedy hedged.

In between bites of linguini and clam sauce, Kennedy, 69, warned of more dire biological weapons in the pipeline with a “50% infection fatality rate” that would make COVID-19 “look like a walk in the park.” “We do know that the Chinese are spending hundreds of millions of dollars developing ethnic bioweapons and we are developing ethnic bioweapons,” he claimed. “They’re collecting Russian DNA. They’re collecting Chinese DNA so we can target people by race.”
Jewish organizations blasted Kennedy for his remarks.
https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-sa ... pare-jews/

Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. praised former President Trump on Friday, saying the leading GOP candidate is “probably the most successful debater in this country since Lincoln-Douglas.” Then-candidate Abraham Lincoln’s presidential debates with Sen. Stephen Douglas (D-Ill.) in 1858 are believed to have delivered Lincoln the presidency and been the first presidential debates.
“[Trump] has his own technique that people like, and it is like going to a prize fight and you need practice. And that usually happens during a primary, and asking [Biden] not to debate during the primary is like asking a prize fighter to practice for his big bout by sitting on the couch and eating Chick-fil-A,” he added. Biden’s team has shrugged off requests from Kennedy and other opponents to debate the president.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... e-lincoln/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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