Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

52
Even if Russia invades, we still have a LOT of diplomatic options on the table. We have a lot of ways to punish the oligarchs and leadership of Russia without ever pulling a gun. Obama nearly collapsed the Ruble after the first invasion, and we still have all those cards, and then some.
Military force should always be the absolute last straw.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

53
The Biden administration is preparing a Huawei type US export rule just for Russia.
The Biden administration is readying a U.S. export rule used against Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei (HWT.UL) that could curb Russia's access to global electronics supplies if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade Ukraine.

While it is unclear how the rule could impact Russia, the restrictions hobbled Huawei's smartphone business. Last month, the company said it expected 2021 revenue to have declined nearly 30% and predicted continued challenges this year.

WHAT IS THE RESTRICTION?

The Foreign Direct Product Rule, as it is called, may be adapted to halt Russia’s ability to import smartphones, key aircraft and automobile components, Reuters reported last month.

The administration is considering restricting chips and products with integrated circuits bound for Russia, a senior official said, imposing its authority over items made abroad if they are designed with U.S. software or technology, or produced using U.S. equipment.

WHAT EXPORTS TO RUSSIA COULD BE IMPACTED?

The restrictions could apply to critical industrial sectors like artificial intelligence, maritime, defense, and civil aviation, the official said, and could also be imposed more broadly, to include consumer electronics.

The scope of the rule against Russia has not been set but White House National Security Council officials have warned executives from the Semiconductor Industry Association, a chip lobbying group, of possible unprecedented actions, as Reuters reported last week.

It is unclear whether the rule could have the kind of devastating effect on Russia that it has had on Huawei.

"A strict imposition of the Foreign Direct Product rule would significantly affect trade and output in Russia, though it’s hard to say by how much," said Jeffrey Schott, an expert on international trade policy and economic sanctions at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

HOW DID IT IMPACT HUAWEI?

The Foreign Direct Product Rule now restricts both U.S. and non-U.S. companies from shipping items to Huawei that are the direct product of U.S. technology or software. Such shipments can only be made with a U.S. license.

The rule was added to the curbs on Huawei after the telecommunications equipment maker was placed on an export control blacklist known as the "entity list" in 2019 and it did not stop the global flow of chips to the company.

The initial listing affected U.S.-made goods and some limited items made abroad with U.S. technology but did not block overseas shipments to Huawei from companies such as Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker.

So in 2020, the United States added the Foreign Direct Product Rule to expand its authority to stop shipments of foreign-produced items to Huawei. Companies like TSMC that use U.S. chipmaking equipment are required to obtain U.S. licenses before supplying Huawei and licenses for sophisticated chips are denied.
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-exp ... 022-01-24/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

54
We could have invited Russia into NATO while Russia had a semi Democratic beginning of a government under Boris Yeltsin. But then with the later power being seized by Putin that hope was dashed. Putin is not a Communist but just an out and out dictator with no ideology but power for himself.
Build a wall? That sure hasn't worked in the past. Look at the Iron Curtain or TOT/Abbott's border wall in Texas.
I don't see him attacking NATO forces that would lead to a greater conflict that is not good for ether side.
If he really wants to take the Ukraine back into Russian control and does send troops, what do we do. The history of attacking Russia is not good. Napoleon couldn't win Hitler did win. and even further back others have tried and lost. As for not being a super power. Lets see what makes a Super Power, not counting comic books TV or movies and politician's dreams. Lots of Nuclear weapons, Able to deliver those weapons to possible opponents around the world. Large military force, A functioning military industry. Able to defend self against invading military forces. Seems they could definitely fill the role of superpower. In the proxy wars we are running neck and neck with wins and losses.

As for the Ukraine region, that has been in and out of Russian control for centuries. Well back into the days of the Tsars. Just like the other region that Russia took from the Ukraine, the Crimea.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

55
What could impact Russia is a block of their computer systems onto the internet. But that could become a tit for tat fight since they have very good hackers that are under government support. You really think that Huawei isn't getting what it wants from Taiwan's TSMC. The Chinese look at the restrictions as Otto Berman did handling the New York Mob Money. ""Nothing personal, it's just business.."
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

56
TrueTexan wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:08 pm We could have invited Russia into NATO while Russia had a semi Democratic beginning of a government under Boris Yeltsin. But then with the later power being seized by Putin that hope was dashed. Putin is not a Communist but just an out and out dictator with no ideology but power for himself.
Build a wall? That sure hasn't worked in the past. Look at the Iron Curtain or TOT/Abbott's border wall in Texas.
I don't see him attacking NATO forces that would lead to a greater conflict that is not good for ether side.
If he really wants to take the Ukraine back into Russian control and does send troops, what do we do. The history of attacking Russia is not good. Napoleon couldn't win Hitler did win. and even further back others have tried and lost. As for not being a super power. Lets see what makes a Super Power, not counting comic books TV or movies and politician's dreams. Lots of Nuclear weapons, Able to deliver those weapons to possible opponents around the world. Large military force, A functioning military industry. Able to defend self against invading military forces. Seems they could definitely fill the role of superpower. In the proxy wars we are running neck and neck with wins and losses.

As for the Ukraine region, that has been in and out of Russian control for centuries. Well back into the days of the Tsars. Just like the other region that Russia took from the Ukraine, the Crimea.
Agree. Not looking forward to cyber wars. Having the Texas energy grid go plonk is not a good thing especially in the winter months. Or denial of service for gas stations. Those type of attacks now seem like test runs in hindsight.
Image
Image

"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

58
I don't see that anyone is really being reasonable.

Ukraine is a trigger for Russia, so deny them entry into NATO. Just change the fucking rules. NATO is supposed to be all about deterrence, but the Europeans are using it as a lever against Russia, and its getting old with Putin.
And here's the thing...Ukraine doesn't even meet the requirements to join NATO, so why is this a thing right now?

This whole situation is a supremely dumb ass reason for a war. If we end up with a war, then I won't be voting for Biden again that's for God damn sure.
Biden's leadership should be to pressure NATO into doing the right thing. Don't be a slave to a rule created decades ago during the Cold War. The world doesn't hinge in Ukraine...so why are we acting like it does?

So Putin is being unreasonable because NATO membership isn't even on the table at this point in time.
NATO are being fucking idiots because they're stuck in a cold war dogmatic existential crisis over something they can EASILY change.
Biden is being unreasonable because he's backing NATO's dumb ass play.

Meanwhile, the only one's who are being even remotely reasonable is Germany, and NATO is pissed at them.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

60
featureless wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:07 pm The damage from an all out cyber war would be tremendous. Even daily jobs are so very dependent on the internet working, especially so during these Covid times. Any additional disruption to supply chains would cause real problems.
Thank you, I just made that connection myself. A cyber attack on utilities or other critical infrastructure may start off seemingly innocuous but can have catastrophic cascading effects on our fragile economy and sense of social order right now. And it is the softest target Putin has for the United States. He simply won’t have the foresight (or restraint) to understand how cyberattacks will ricochet onto his own country’s economy if the US economy is badly damaged; ie the price of oil.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

61
Bisbee wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 12:03 pm <facepalm>
Well fuck, lets just let Putin have Ukraine then. See how that goes. Then he will be empowered to do what ever else he wants, lke all the baltic states and maybe Poland and Finland as well.

Uh your all forgetting Russia's economy sucks right now. He would get pummeled by our cyber attacks as well. I don't think he'll go there. Especially since all NATO countries are united on this.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

62
This isn't 1938, Putin isn't Hitler, Biden isn't Chamberlain... And Putin has nukes! Seriously, let me say it again; PUTIN HAS THE LARGEST NUCLEAR ARSENAL IN THE WORLD!! I can't possibly stress that enough.
Russia has always been believers in the use of small tactical nukes in a European general war; they have never abandoned that doctrine. Why would you want to bluff them?

War has to be the last option, so don't bluff your way into a war. There is no room for bluffs when you're talking about a shooting war with a nuclear power.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

63
FrontSight wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:57 pm This isn't 1938, Putin isn't Hitler, Biden isn't Chamberlain... And Putin has nukes! Seriously, let me say it again; PUTIN HAS THE LARGEST NUCLEAR ARSENAL IN THE WORLD!! I can't possibly stress that enough.
Russia has always been believers in the use of small tactical nukes in a European general war; they have never abandoned that doctrine. Why would you want to bluff them?

War has to be the last option, so don't bluff your way into a war. There is no room for bluffs when you're talking about a shooting war with a nuclear power.
It's not like we're sending them (troops) in to attack. It's a defensive posture dude.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

65
We, including NATO countries in the WE, really didn't do anything about Russia taking the Crimea from the Ukraine except apply a few diplomatic sanctions against some Russian government officials to prevent them from traveling to the US and Canada. And Russia did the same to some of our government people at that time. It was a case of sending diplomatic nasty notes to each other. mIt was basically the same thing we did back in the 1920 when Lenin annexed the Ukraine again to Russia.

Russia wants control of both the Ukraine and the Crimea because who controls those areas controls the Black Sea and the all weather ports to Russia.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

67
featureless wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:40 am
sikacz wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:34 am Reminder, the US (NATO) and EU made no such moves to invite Russia. Instead NATO immediately started to take in and welcome former east block countries to join. This escalation is all on NATO and the USA. The only “superpower” indeed. I hope we’re all proud of that boast now.
Yep. Sort of reminds me of a reversed Cuban missile crisis (not that I was born yet). It seems we'd have done better to try to work inclusive of Russia rather than attempting territorial gains at their boarder. But, Putin is also an asshole, so there's that at play as well.
The list of the US creating problems for itself is near infinite.

Castro. US refused to even meet with him when he came hat in hand to the US.
Same with Ho.
Same with Mao.

Instead, we topple democratically elected governments to install our selected tyrant du jour all over the Caribbean, South and Central America, Southeast Asia, Middle East...
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

68
TrueTexan wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:23 pm We, including NATO countries in the WE, really didn't do anything about Russia taking the Crimea from the Ukraine except apply a few diplomatic sanctions against some Russian government officials to prevent them from traveling to the US and Canada. And Russia did the same to some of our government people at that time. It was a case of sending diplomatic nasty notes to each other. mIt was basically the same thing we did back in the 1920 when Lenin annexed the Ukraine again to Russia.

Russia wants control of both the Ukraine and the Crimea because who controls those areas controls the Black Sea and the all weather ports to Russia.
Uh, we did a whole lot more than that.

We prevented oligarchs from doing business, putting a LOT of pressure on Putin from his "supporters"
And Obama convinced Opec to ramp up production, and crush the Russian economy as the price of oil plunged.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

69
TrueTexan wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:08 pm As for the Ukraine region, that has been in and out of Russian control for centuries. Well back into the days of the Tsars. Just like the other region that Russia took from the Ukraine, the Crimea.
The notion that Ukraine is not a country in its own right, but a historical part of Russia, appears to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many in the Russian leadership. Already long before the Ukraine crisis, at an April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Vladimir Putin reportedly claimed that “Ukraine is not even a state! What is Ukraine? A part of its territory is [in] Eastern Europe, but a[nother] part, a considerable one, was a gift from us!” In his March 18, 2014 speech marking the annexation of Crimea, Putin declared that Russians and Ukrainians “are one people. Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Rus’ is our common source and we cannot live without each other.” Since then, Putin has repeated similar claims on many occasions. As recently as February 2020, he once again stated in an interview that Ukrainians and Russians “are one and the same people”, and he insinuated that Ukrainian national identity had emerged as a product of foreign interference. Similarly, Russia’s then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told a perplexed apparatchik in April 2016 that there has been “no state” in Ukraine, neither before nor after the 2014 crisis.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2020/07/0 ... n-history/

Ukraine is an independent country and we've always supported the right of self determination by people around the world. Ukrainian territory was fought over just like Poland and the Balkans and during WWII Poland was divided by Hitler and Stalin. That's one of the problems in the Middle East, western countries divided up the Ottoman Empire and we living with their map drawing.

The reason for NATO was to protect Europe from any further Soviet/Russian incursion. NATO has military plans and secrets and the US, UK and France have nuclear weapons in different locations in Europe, why would we admit Russia and then give her that information? Russia's window of democracy was short lived and then Yeltsin the drunk appointed Putin as his successor.

I agree, Obama could have done more over Russia's occupation of the Crimea.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

71
TrueTexan wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:23 pm We, including NATO countries in the WE, really didn't do anything about Russia taking the Crimea from the Ukraine except apply a few diplomatic sanctions against some Russian government officials to prevent them from traveling to the US and Canada. And Russia did the same to some of our government people at that time. It was a case of sending diplomatic nasty notes to each other. mIt was basically the same thing we did back in the 1920 when Lenin annexed the Ukraine again to Russia.

Russia wants control of both the Ukraine and the Crimea because who controls those areas controls the Black Sea and the all weather ports to Russia.
Yes, so see we ( Obama ) did nothing about Crimea. And in fact dragged our feet sending weapons. And now, Putin wants more. No, Putin wantsd all of it. He thinks his posturing is going to just let him walk in if we ( NATO ) does nothing like before.
You can only sanction so much before it's useless.

GASP!!
Last edited by tonguengroover on Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing,”

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

72
sikacz wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:06 pm So the only reason for NATO is Soviet (Russian) containment. I believe y’all have proven Russia’s concerns as valid.
:yes:

And yes, we fucked up the response on Crimea. It was a demonstration that the US is not much more than a paper tiger. We've been outlasted in Afghanistan. Our manufacturing is a fucking shambles. We've pissed away any moral authority we might have once had. We elected fucking Trump. We've fucked over and abandoned allies. Really, what's Putin got to lose? His primary global opposition has lost its collective marbles.

Yeah, we've got a hell of a military but shit for leadership, shit for support and shit for sustainable effort. We are very much a nation in decline. I guess we'll see. Just hope this isn't the beginning of old WWIII.

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

73
highdesert wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:44 pm
TrueTexan wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:08 pm As for the Ukraine region, that has been in and out of Russian control for centuries. Well back into the days of the Tsars. Just like the other region that Russia took from the Ukraine, the Crimea.
The notion that Ukraine is not a country in its own right, but a historical part of Russia, appears to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many in the Russian leadership. Already long before the Ukraine crisis, at an April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, Vladimir Putin reportedly claimed that “Ukraine is not even a state! What is Ukraine? A part of its territory is [in] Eastern Europe, but a[nother] part, a considerable one, was a gift from us!” In his March 18, 2014 speech marking the annexation of Crimea, Putin declared that Russians and Ukrainians “are one people. Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Rus’ is our common source and we cannot live without each other.” Since then, Putin has repeated similar claims on many occasions. As recently as February 2020, he once again stated in an interview that Ukrainians and Russians “are one and the same people”, and he insinuated that Ukrainian national identity had emerged as a product of foreign interference. Similarly, Russia’s then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev told a perplexed apparatchik in April 2016 that there has been “no state” in Ukraine, neither before nor after the 2014 crisis.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2020/07/0 ... n-history/

Ukraine is an independent country and we've always supported the right of self determination by people around the world. Ukrainian territory was fought over just like Poland and the Balkans and during WWII Poland was divided by Hitler and Stalin. That's one of the problems in the Middle East, western countries divided up the Ottoman Empire and we living with their map drawing.

The reason for NATO was to protect Europe from any further Soviet/Russian incursion. NATO has military plans and secrets and the US, UK and France have nuclear weapons in different locations in Europe, why would we admit Russia and then give her that information? Russia's window of democracy was short lived and then Yeltsin the drunk appointed Putin as his successor.

I agree, Obama could have done more over Russia's occupation of the Crimea.
The Ukraine is a independent country but wasn’t always that way. Would we support the independence of say Normandy, Scotland, or of various German states that were at one time independent countries. Would you support an independent Texas Republic. We were an independent recognized country at one time. We could be a nuclear power since the Pantex plant is in Texas. “ Pantex is the primary United States nuclear weapons assembly and disassembly facility that aims to maintain the safety, security and reliability of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile.[1][2] The facility is located on a 16,000-acre (25 sq mi; 65 km2) site 17 miles (27 km) northeast of Amarillo, in Carson County, Texas in the Panhandle of Texas”

I bet we could make a deal with Vladimir.He would be happy to send some troops over to secure the border. :sarcasm:
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Biden says Russia will invade Ukraine.

75
tonguengroover wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:43 pm So Biden just said we have no intention of sending troops , NATO or otherwise into Ukraine.
There, the flip flopper just gave Ukraine to Putin. Y'all should be delighted.
Not delighted in the least if Putin continues his expansion, especially not with the loss of lives on the side of those being brought into the bear's fold. But I'm fairly sure there's fuckall we can do about it short of starting a war. You sure we want to go there? I'm not.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 3 guests