Ridge83 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:50 pm I think that the rest of the world would absorb the initial hit. The world currency would change from the U.S. Dollar as a standard to the Euro if a crypto currency fails to take hold. The Chinese Yuan would have a more difficult time considering the amount of U.S. debt that China owns,and who's to say that they wouldn't attempt to collect? Also Keep in mind that China does have a large volunteer force inside the UN.

Fallacy 3. National debt is NOTHING like personal debt. Personal debt uses collateral assets that a debtor is legally entitled to seize upon default.

IN NO LEGAL SYSTEM does national debt entitle a debtor to collateral assets. National debt is predicated on the ability and willingness of a country to turn taxable income into interest repayment, and it is repaid over centuries. The UK is still paying debt on the Napoleonic wars. Debt is just a guaranteed revenue stream. US national debt is based on the sovereign currency of the US, to wit, the dollar. The US Treasury can print money on demand.

We owe more money to Japan than to China - and they have a much stronger historical record of expeditionary warfare - but even then we only owe China $1 trillion. We could pay that off tomorrow with a single platinum coin if we wanted. There would be inflationary consequences, but the debt is not the economic time bomb that the right wing wants you to believe it is. There's a reason they keep expanding the debt whenever they have power. The corporate right own a good portion of it themselves, and it's a guaranteed revenue stream diverting money from public goods and services into their bank accounts.

The paranoia about national debt is NOT about the economy. It is part of a strategy to eliminate public goods and services to make workers more dependent on corporations and therefore more compliant. Neoliberal feudalism depends on a working class of serfs.

sikacz wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:39 am

chgowiz wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:24 am

sikacz wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:30 am I could see another depression. I could see an upsurge in violence as unemployed people run out of resources and nothing to fall back on. The wealth and power is controlled by a few, that won’t easily change.

Out of everything discussed, I see this far more likely.

TBH, I don't see a massive collapse happening suddenly. I see crumbles. Like a dam or dike slowly falling away. We'll adjust to the moment, not realizing the huge shift until later on in history class.

I think SHTF scenarios are mostly fantasy, more likely that climate change starts to occupy everyone's attention in the next decade, making these political games seem like window dressing to the real problems that will cause real crumbling and change.

Agree. I think we are seeing some breakdown violence in our major cities. Pandemics are a stress and unemployment/underemployment is higher than numbers suggest.

Yup. Add in a dash of Covid to help the climate disaster chaos along the way. I see no way out of a slow, grinding global collapse at this point. We don't have the resources to rebuild (adapt) to climate change--we can't even handle the current shipping port issues. What do we do when those are inundated by the oceans much of the time?

The wildcard is what geopolitical instability comes out of it. The UN is a toothless puppy without US military backing. I see UN involvement on US soil as about the last thing that will happen. But the US will almost certainly fuck with other countries. It's what we do.

Breakdown in violence is happening right now are the roving bands of looter/shoplifters. People are going to start hitting homes, possibly rich homes and arming themselves better than with just clubs. They just hit a gun store so will government put the NG on guard? Hard to stop it when 80 people randomly just show up.
I remember when I was a kid during riots the NG started shooting looters on the streets.

featureless wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:48 am

sikacz wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:39 am

chgowiz wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 10:24 am

sikacz wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:30 am I could see another depression. I could see an upsurge in violence as unemployed people run out of resources and nothing to fall back on. The wealth and power is controlled by a few, that won’t easily change.

Out of everything discussed, I see this far more likely.

TBH, I don't see a massive collapse happening suddenly. I see crumbles. Like a dam or dike slowly falling away. We'll adjust to the moment, not realizing the huge shift until later on in history class.

I think SHTF scenarios are mostly fantasy, more likely that climate change starts to occupy everyone's attention in the next decade, making these political games seem like window dressing to the real problems that will cause real crumbling and change.

Agree. I think we are seeing some breakdown violence in our major cities. Pandemics are a stress and unemployment/underemployment is higher than numbers suggest.

Yup. Add in a dash of Covid to help the climate disaster chaos along the way. I see no way out of a slow, grinding global collapse at this point. We don't have the resources to rebuild (adapt) to climate change--we can't even handle the current shipping port issues. What do we do when those are inundated by the oceans much of the time?

The wildcard is what geopolitical instability comes out of it. The UN is a toothless puppy without US military backing. I see UN involvement on US soil as about the last thing that will happen. But the US will almost certainly fuck with other countries. It's what we do.

As it relates to climate change, we are in the beginning stages of a solar minimum that isn't supposed to end until the 2050's , and historically that has had major influence on weather patterns and agriculture.

Look at the history of financial crises since the 1920s. Each instance has been less disruptive than the last.

Look at the recent history of major social breakdowns comparing the period of mid-1960s through late-1970s to the recent social breakdowns and again those today is far less disruptive than the former. Remember The Cities are Burning Summer when literally hundreds of US cities saw major riots and burnings.

Forget any absurdity of foreign invasion; those are simply stupid.

But there is a real threat and it's from that segment of our own population that place SOURCE over content, BELIEF over evidence and FANTASY over reality.

Even there the most likely outcome is the imposition of an Authoritative Government that changes us to a one-party Fascist State with the tacit approval of a significant percentage of the population and complete approval of all financial interests.

People who think someone is going to try to invade the US clearly don't understand logistics. The US is militarily un-conquerable from an external source. You don't beat Russia in Russia, China in China, and you can't beat the US in the US. Such talk is ignorant nonsense.

If it's true war gaming, then the scenarios have to be plausible along with the assumptions. I too have seen similar ones on other boards.

sig230 wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:29 am But there is a real threat and it's from that segment of our own population that place SOURCE over content, BELIEF over evidence and FANTASY over reality.

Even there the most likely outcome is the imposition of an Authoritative Government that changes us to a one-party Fascist State with the tacit approval of a significant percentage of the population and complete approval of all financial interests.

Yeah, that's my point and why I think Russia is the much more dangerous foe...for now.

China is trying to do the same things Russia is doin, but even with all their successes, they absolutely pale in comparison to the successes Russia is having.

No one is going to take the US down externally, but we have two large foes, and many "friends" who would like to see us tear ourselves apart internally. I have NEVER been afraid of external threats. My whole life I have only feared US politicians. They are my only threat.

Any military stuff would remain local. I don't see a Taiwan thing.

One neat aspect of fiat currency is you get to say what it's worth and how much of it exists. This is challenged by crypto. Gnarly times.

CDFingers

CDFingers wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:43 pm Any military stuff would remain local. I don't see a Taiwan thing.

One neat aspect of fiat currency is you get to say what it's worth and how much of it exists. This is challenged by crypto. Gnarly times.

CDFingers

Crypto works on the rarity principle (there's a better technical term for that, but I'm drawing a blank at the moment). The advantage is, the value isn't subject to manipulation by a central bank...well, not easily. It works just like the Gold Standard for the most part, there's even mining of "new" currency.

But things like the Gold standard are a train wreck for a national currency. We dumped the Gold Standard because we had 3 failures in just 20 years prior to WW2. Since moving to a Fiat currency, we have never experienced a currency failure.

I don’t see the point of this “wargaming” speculation. Smacks of intellectual masturbation on matters of non-personal scale. There is nothing in the way of your improvement or ability for self-gain by this sort of mental noise. There is no possibility to prepare oneself for any such scenario of foreign invasion or economic devastation. So why do intelligent people engage in random speculation? Is this a college dorm room?

Bisbee wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:02 pm I don’t see the point of this “wargaming” speculation. Smacks of intellectual masturbation on matters of non-personal scale. There is nothing in the way of your improvement or ability for self-gain by this sort of mental noise. There is no possibility to prepare oneself for any such scenario of foreign invasion or economic devastation. So why do intelligent people engage in random speculation? Is this a college dorm room?

Chuunibyou.

sig230 wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:12 pm

Bisbee wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:02 pm I don’t see the point of this “wargaming” speculation. Smacks of intellectual masturbation on matters of non-personal scale. There is nothing in the way of your improvement or ability for self-gain by this sort of mental noise. There is no possibility to prepare oneself for any such scenario of foreign invasion or economic devastation. So why do intelligent people engage in random speculation? Is this a college dorm room?

Chuunibyou.

As opposed to the typical "Herp-Durp them wright-ringerz gon' get us DERP!"

Bisbee wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 5:02 pm I don’t see the point of this “wargaming” speculation. Smacks of intellectual masturbation on matters of non-personal scale. There is nothing in the way of your improvement or ability for self-gain by this sort of mental noise. There is no possibility to prepare oneself for any such scenario of foreign invasion or economic devastation. So why do intelligent people engage in random speculation? Is this a college dorm room?

I agree there’s not much point to speculate over something we as individuals have little control over. We do have some ability to choose who we want to lead us. Hopefully that person puts the people’s interest ahead of corporations, national rivalries and other petty issues that have lead to disasters in the past. Other than the obvious, the pandemic and employment, we don’t really need to speculate further. Those are already pressing issues and they are real.

There are so many treats were as individuals and small communities (neighborhood homeowners associations; etc.) we can make preparations and offer solutions.

Not in any true order but:

extended power outages WILL become increasingly a fact of life. We can look at ways to maintain power for the most essential services such as food refrigeration and cooking, temperature control spaces, adequate medicines in-house. If we have a Home Owners Association and clubhouse would it be possible to get a portable generator that would at a minimum allow those neighbors without heat or cooling a place of refuge.

extended water supply outages. Keep a supply of distilled water available. I have a stock of gallon water that I rotate, the oldest gets used and replaced with a newer bottle. I also have a liner I can put in the tub and fill the tub for non-consumption uses.

Have a supply of alternate source to replace non-functioning stoves and lights. Have lots of battery LED lights and propane/bottle gas stoves.

Deal first with the crises we KNOW are very likely before some imagined foreign invasion.

Chuunibyou (中二病), or "Middle-school 2nd Year Syndrome", is a colloquial and rather derisive term in Japan which describes a person at the age of fourteen would either act like a know-it-all adult, or thinks they have special powers no one else has. Some would even go as far as being obnoxious, arrogant, and often look down on adults or older people. This way of thinking or acting is mostly seen in teenagers during adolescence, however there are people who still act like this even after reaching the adulthood.

Chuunibyou uses the word "病" for "syndrome" or "disease"　but it does not actually relate to any medical condition or mental disorder

Though no one here is in danger of imagining they hold special knowledge or powers of understanding in world affairs, over speculation is also the basis of 4chan boasts and Q-adherents who string-together mental noise to pump their ego.

Bisbee wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:44 pm

Chuunibyou (中二病), or "Middle-school 2nd Year Syndrome", is a colloquial and rather derisive term in Japan which describes a person at the age of fourteen would either act like a know-it-all adult, or thinks they have special powers no one else has. Some would even go as far as being obnoxious, arrogant, and often look down on adults or older people. This way of thinking or acting is mostly seen in teenagers during adolescence, however there are people who still act like this even after reaching the adulthood.

Chuunibyou uses the word "病" for "syndrome" or "disease"　but it does not actually relate to any medical condition or mental disorder

Though no one here is in danger of imagining they hold special knowledge or powers of understanding in world affairs, over speculation is also the basis of 4chan boasts and Q-adherents who string-together mental noise to pump their ego.

I made this as a thread for thought experiments.

Does anyone believe the world can’t get along without humans?

Same story, different toys. I think we’re smart enough to not sail over the edge.

As we have effectively inoculated ourselves from natural evolution, it’s our mistake to make.

This reminds me of the two movies, "Red Dawn (1984)" and the remake "Red Dawn (2012)" about the invasion of the US by the Soviets in the first film and the Chinese in the second film. The wingers and their bros love those movies.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087985/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1234719/?ref_=fn_al_tt_2

South Park did a spoof on it called "Gray Dawn" about seniors.

Wolveriiiiines!"

CDFingers

Ridge83 wrote: Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:42 am

Bisbee wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:44 pm

Chuunibyou (中二病), or "Middle-school 2nd Year Syndrome", is a colloquial and rather derisive term in Japan which describes a person at the age of fourteen would either act like a know-it-all adult, or thinks they have special powers no one else has. Some would even go as far as being obnoxious, arrogant, and often look down on adults or older people. This way of thinking or acting is mostly seen in teenagers during adolescence, however there are people who still act like this even after reaching the adulthood.

Chuunibyou uses the word "病" for "syndrome" or "disease"　but it does not actually relate to any medical condition or mental disorder

Though no one here is in danger of imagining they hold special knowledge or powers of understanding in world affairs, over speculation is also the basis of 4chan boasts and Q-adherents who string-together mental noise to pump their ego.

I made this as a thread for thought experiments.

And the grown-up military peeps play these - what if - scenarios all the time. It's called strategy.

"Plans are nothing. Planning is everything." --Ike.

CDFingers

You're boring me, Ridge.

The “blue helmets are going to invade” trope is a right wing fantasy. It’s the type of fiction that doomer porn writers like James Wesley Rawles & Kenneth Royce write about. The US funds the UN.

Why would Putin invade us when he is getting us to rip ourselves apart with a tiny investment in propaganda from RT & troll farms? He’s got bought and sold whores like Bannon doing his biding here. Putin is a grand strategy master. He had taken a weak poker hand and played it masterfully. Russia is not even in the worlds top ten countries by GDP. Putin knows exactly where to push and exactly when to back off. The Tangerine Palpatine was an absolute gift to him.

Xi is a master at consolidating his power in China through propaganda, repression, suppression of information & has the patience to play the long game. China however is not a paper Tiger. The are the worlds second largest economy & have a huge industrial capacity and a fearsome nuclear arsenal. Though the United States has an expeditionary focused military, and the very real military strength of PACOM largely guards us from an expansionist Xi, we could not got go and kick his door down in the South China littorals. We have around 30 amphibious ships where we had 1000s in WWII to bring the war to Japans overseas possessions, not even Japan itself.

The biggest threat to the United States - is the United States.

Remember when Bannon was arrested (in 2020 - not the 2021 arrest) for a $25M grift “tWe Build The Wall” and then trump
Pardoned him? I’m sure it just adds to his crediblity in Q circles that the “deep state” is after him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think Ridge got bored and wandered off when nobody bought into the reactionary propaganda links from YouTube.