The Liberal Gun Club Forum

The Democratic Senate Majority Could Hinge On California’s Governor Recall

Next week, California voters will start receiving mail-in ballots, which will give them the opportunity to decide whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) two years into his first term.

The recall election, which will take place on Sept. 14, asks voters two questions: whether Newsom should be recalled, and who should replace him. If a majority of voters say yes to the first question, the challenger who receives the most votes in the second question will finish Newsom’s term in office. This could result in a bizarre and undemocratic scenario in which the current governor is replaced by a challenger who receives fewer votes than he does — perhaps far fewer.

Much of the media coverage of the recall election frames the race as an issue that is distinctly Californian — the result of the state’s peculiar system, which can catapult an unknown Republican into office in a state where just 24% of registered voters identify as Republican.

But the outcome of California’s recall election could also cost the Democratic caucus its razor-thin Senate majority, with profound consequences for voting rights, the Supreme Court and the basic functioning of the federal government.

The governor gets to appoint a replacement to the Senate if there is an unexpected vacancy, and California’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, is the chamber’s oldest senator, at 88.

If her seat were to suddenly go to a Republican, it would upend a very fragile Democratic majority. The Senate currently has 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. In the event of a tie vote, Vice President Kamala Harris breaks the tie, giving the Democrats a functional majority. Although the filibuster requires 60 votes to pass legislation in many circumstances, a simple majority is enough to confirm judicial nominations to lifetime positions and must-pass government funding legislation.

Of the more than 40 people running to replace Newsom, there is no serious Democratic contender. None of the Republicans in the race have publicly indicated that they would appoint a Democratic senator if given the opportunity to fill the position.

Although many voters remain undecided, a late July poll from the U.C. Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found that conservative talk radio host Larry Elder is the early front-runner, with 18% of likely voters reporting they’d choose him. Elder, a Trump supporter, has promoted an anti-vaccine doctor, touted the endorsement of an accused Capitol rioter, opposes California’s current vaccine mandate for state employees, and wants to abolish the minimum wage.

Feinstein will be 91 at the completion of her term. During her 29 years in the Senate, she has gone up against the NRA to pass a (now-expired) assault weapons ban and uncovered details of the CIA’s torture program. When she was up for reelection in 2018, she defeated the candidate who ran to her left by eight points.

But during a congressional hearing last November, Feinstein had asked Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey a lengthy question about election-related disinformation that he had answered and she had replied to — when moments later, she repeated her initial question almost word for word, seemingly unaware they had just discussed it.

The following month, The New Yorker’s Jane Mayer reported that people “familiar with Feinstein’s situation” said her short-term memory has deteriorated to the point where she was accusing staff of failing to brief her on topics just after they had done so. “They describe Feinstein as forgetting what she has said and getting upset when she can’t keep up,” Mayer continued.

According to Mayer, then-Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) was so concerned about Feinstein’s ability to manage high-stakes hearings, he had trusted aides “embed” in the Judiciary Committee to keep watch during confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, two of President Donald Trump’s nominees for the Supreme Court.

Schumer had hoped Feinstein would step down on her own and has had “several serious and painful talks” with her, Mayer reported. But “Feinstein seemed to forget about the conversations soon after they talked, so Schumer had to confront her again,” she wrote.

Representatives for EDD said it is still working to get all mail to a document management center each day, initiate quality controls, track appeal decisions and complete updates to the call center system.

The agency brought in thousands of mostly temporary workers to help answer phones and eliminated an initial backlog of 1.5 million claims facing delays.

But problems have persisted. As of July 31, there was a backlog of 216,000 claims that had not been approved within 21 days. The week ending on that date saw the EDD receive 3.4 million calls — it was able to answer only 248,000 of them.

And 14% of new claims still require some manual processing.

The nonprofit Center for Workers’ Rights gets an average of 40 calls a day from people still needing help with their unemployment claims, Executive Director Daniela Urban said.

“New claimants are still facing long waits,” she said, adding that people whose claims are wrongly rejected by EDD have not been able to get swift action on their appeals.

“We’re at over a 100-day delay in getting those hearings,” Urban said.

Some jobless Californians say the EDD‘s failures have left them on the brink financially. It has affected how they view the recall election, they said.

The EDD has also faced criticism for not doing enough to stop fraud. The agency determined at least $11 billion in benefits were paid on fraudulent claims, many in the names of state prison inmates, including convicted killers on death row. An additional $19 billion in benefits have been identified as suspicious and are under investigation.

State Auditor Elaine Howle issued two reports in January that blamed insufficient planning by state officials for the agency‘s lack of preparedness with regard to the pandemic workload and said California officials failed for months to heed warnings of widespread claims fraud.

Half a year later, the auditor’s office says only five of her 26 recommendations have been fully implemented.

In response to the problem, the EDD began late last year to check unemployment claims against the personal information of prison inmates, something 35 other states had already been doing. It also hired a firm to verify the identity of claimants by methods including video calls.

senorgrand wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:56 pm Newsom made a political calculation that he didn't need democratic gun owner votes when he passed the ammunition ballot measure. I decided to oblige him and vote yes on the recall. Plus, still pretty pissed about his fundraising during the lockdown. The Greens need to get their shit together, because I'm sick of one party rule.

featureless wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 3:03 pm

senorgrand wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 2:56 pm Newsom made a political calculation that he didn't need democratic gun owner votes when he passed the ammunition ballot measure. I decided to oblige him and vote yes on the recall. Plus, still pretty pissed about his fundraising during the lockdown. The Greens need to get their shit together, because I'm sick of one party rule.

I'll be doing the same when my ballot arrives.

Just to be clear, it's not an easy decision and the risk of a republican replacement is very real. But I'm done voting for strategic Dem control. Biden was the last one. Politics in this country are broken, largely by big money but also because politicians rely on party votes, regardless of who they truly are. If we continue to just check the party box, we will continue to have shit leadership.

senorgrand wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:24 pm Highdesert- I think that lawsuit is shit, since the recall rules have been in place for like a century.

Editorial: Wake up, California! Removing Gavin Newsom would be a disaster

Removing Newsom and replacing him with an untested and unprepared alternative who wouldn’t represent the values of most Californians would be a disaster. It would doom the state to months of political and bureaucratic dysfunction and economic uncertainty. And for what purpose?

senorgrand wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:24 pm Highdesert- I think that lawsuit is shit, since the recall rules have been in place for like a century.

featureless wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:07 pm

senorgrand wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:24 pm Highdesert- I think that lawsuit is shit, since the recall rules have been in place for like a century.

Seems pretty Trumpian, doesn't it?

Regardless of whether or how you will vote in the recall election, do you think California should change the law to make the process of recalling a governor easier? Leave the law alone? Change the law to make the process of recalling a governor more difficult? Or change the law to eliminate the ability to recall a governor?

senorgrand wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:25 pm DiFi holds a lot of power and don't expect much from the powers that be regarding her incompetence or fragility. Also, media outside CA don't know shit about CA politics.

Bisbee wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:17 pm
Don’t do it.

Last year at this time, Kevin Paffrath was focused on his YouTube channel, where his half-million-plus followers could tune in for daily commentary on housing, stocks and stimulus checks. It earned him nearly $10 million over the last 12 months.

Now, the 29-year-old former real estate broker is following Gov. Gavin Newsom around his home state. It’s the best way he can think of to draw attention to his unlikely effort to replace Newsom in the upcoming recall election on Sept. 14.

Paffrath is a registered Democrat and self-declared centrist who voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. While he’s highly critical of Newsom and says he’s been a “failed leader,” Paffrath is equally concerned that the Democratic Party has no emergency plan.

Should more than half of California voters support the recall on their ballots, the next governor would be whichever of the 46 successor candidates gets the most votes, making it much easier for an outsider to win. Paffrath is one of the nine candidates listed as a Democrat, but party leaders are urging a “No” vote to the recall effort and saying voters should skip the second question asking who should be governor if the recall succeeds.

“It was mind-blowing to us that they didn’t put at least somebody in, so that way, worst case, they had a hail mary,” Paffrath said in an interview on Friday over a coffee, after attending a Newsom press event in San Francisco.

In an early August poll by Survey USA, Paffrath had the most votes in the field of replacements, with 27%. The next six candidates are all Republicans, including conservative talk show host Larry Elder and reality TV star and former Olympic athlete Caitlyn Jenner.

“We think in the last two weeks of this campaign if the recall looks more and more likely, the Democratic party will be forced to pick a Hail Mary back-up candidate,” Paffrath said. “Given that we’re No. 1 in the polls, we hope that’s us.”

Democrats are right to be nervous.

A poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, and the Los Angeles Times in late July showed 51% of registered voters opposed the recall, with 36% in favor. But among likely voters, the gap favoring Newsom’s retention narrowed to three percentage points.

The anti-recall movement has raised about $51 million, almost eight times as much as the side trying to oust Newsom. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has contributed $3 million in support of the governor.

Donors can contribute an unlimited amount for or against the recall, but only up to $32,400 in support of any specific replacement candidate. Paffrath said he’s raised close to $400,000 and has put in about $200,000 of his own money. The average donation is $70, he said.

“We don’t have the war chest that Newsom does, so we have to do everything in our power with grassroots and social media,” Paffrath said.

For example, Paffrath paid his brother-in-law, an app developer, to build his “Meet Kevin” app. And he’s trying to get in front of the media as much as possible. Most of his ad spending is via text message to let voters know there’s a Democratic alternative.

On Friday, Paffrath hung out outside Manny’s restaurant in San Francisco as Newsom spoke inside to the press. Dressed in a navy suit with a purple tie, Paffrath made himself easy to spot for reporters. He said he’s careful not to be disruptive at the events.

“We have to combat, this ‘Oh yeah he’s a YouTuber, he’s a prankster,’” Paffrath said. “We stand there very respectfully and reporters recognize us. They talk to us.”

From San Francisco, he’s following Newsom to Los Angeles and San Diego, and possibly beyond.

Paffrath, who lives with his wife and two young sons in Ventura, about 70 miles from Los Angeles, has made addressing the homeless issue his top agenda item. His proposal is to build new emergency facilities and lease commercial and office buildings, including many that have been vacated during the pandemic, to set up mass spaces with cots and small rooms, supported by staffing from the National Guard.

His aim is to get all of California’s 160,000 homeless people off the streets in 60 days at an eventual cost of $10 per person per day, covering food, medical support and bathrooms.

Paffrath has equally ambitious — some may say outlandish — goals for new types of “future” schools, a system of underground tunnels to alleviate traffic problems and the building of Las Vegas-style casinos as part of a plan to fully legalize gambling.

He also recognizes the existential threat posed by fires and droughts. He advocates spending on controlled burns and a pipeline from the Mississippi River to double water flow to the Colorado River. When it comes to solar plants, he wants to incentivize companies to stay in California rather than going elsewhere.

“I’m tired of hearing about Tesla building solar panels in New York and Nevada,” he said. “Those should be in California.”

Paffrath’s fans are used to hearing him opine on such matters. He now has almost 150,000 Twitter followers and 1.7 million on YouTube. Regular topics include interest rates, the crypto economy and politics.

Paffrath got his start in real estate a little over a decade ago by teaching people how to invest in the market. He became a broker and started buying property, then took his teaching experience and market knowledge to YouTube. By 2018 was making enough money — a couple thousand dollars a day — to let his broker license expire and to get out of sales.

At the coffee shop on Friday, he pulled out his phone and navigated to his YouTube earnings dashboard. Over the past year, the page showed, his ad revenue on the site topped $3.5 million. Affiliate revenue and money he makes from courses on building wealth brought in an additional $6 million or so, he said.

But his focus now is on politics. Paffrath said he’ll run in 2022 even the recall is unsuccessful or if another replacement candidate wins. That’s as far out as he’s projecting.

“I don’t want to be a career politician,” he said. “I want to fix California.”