The Liberal Gun Club Forum

Bisbee wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:00 pm A fast mutation like this which evades current vaccine efficacy can do much more than make Covid vaccination into an annual ritual. It can quite literally stretch his pandemic into a decades long affair and take the world’s economy down with it.

featureless wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:11 pm

Bisbee wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:00 pm A fast mutation like this which evades current vaccine efficacy can do much more than make Covid vaccination into an annual ritual. It can quite literally stretch his pandemic into a decades long affair and take the world’s economy down with it.

Why, yes. Yes, it could.

Eyes should be on the South Africa variant, at the moment. As with most things pandemic-related, the US is doing a shit job of screening for variants. We really have no idea what's out there roaming the streets.

It's also being reported that the Fuckhead administration didn't have a vaccine distribution plan. Biden's team will be essentially starting from scratch.

“We have been informed today that, in addition to spreading more quickly, it also now appears that there is some evidence that the new variant—the variant that was first identified in London and the South East—may be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” said Mr. Johnson.

Bisbee wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:53 pm Jeezuz Kryst! A coronavirus that’s more virulent and deadlier.
Sure, why not... We all need a reason to find Ghad.

Public Health England, Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the University of Exeter have each been trying to assess how deadly the new variant is. Their evidence has been assessed by scientists on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag). The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, described the data so far as "not yet strong". He said: "I want to stress that there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility."

Previous work suggests the new variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster than others, and there are hints it is about 30% more deadly.

highdesert wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:01 pm Yes, BoJo said that the UK variant may be more contagious than originally thought, but the UK government's science adviser urges caution. The CDC estimated that the UK variant will be the predominate strain in the US by March.

Public Health England, Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the University of Exeter have each been trying to assess how deadly the new variant is. Their evidence has been assessed by scientists on the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag). The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, described the data so far as "not yet strong". He said: "I want to stress that there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility."

Previous work suggests the new variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster than others, and there are hints it is about 30% more deadly.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55768627

Fauci seemed optimistic that the next vaccine Johnson & Johnson by their subsidiary Janssen Pharma would apply for approval in the next few weeks. Then Oxford University/AstraZeneca which is already approved in the UK and India and then Novavax.

Five people were killed by a fire that erupted at the sprawling complex of the Serum Institute of India, one of the world's biggest vaccine-making facilities which is currently producing millions of doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.

The fire broke out Thursday afternoon in a building still under construction on the 100-acre site in the southwest city of Pune. It was brought under control by Thursday evening, but at least two of the top floors of the five-story building were gutted.

Earlier in the day Adar Poonawalla, the Serum Institute's CEO and son of its chairman, said production of the coronavirus vaccine, produced in India under the brand name Covishield, would not be affected by the fire. He later noted that an unspecified quantity of other vaccines, including for tuberculosis and Rotavirus disease, were destroyed in the blaze.

YankeeTarheel wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:10 am Reading today that over 19 million vaccinations have been made but most of the states are running out of vaccine. 39 million doses produced, 19 million in arms, SOMEHOW 20 million cannot be accounted for...Is it just the usual Trumpian bureaucratic nightmare, or, being the crook and thug he is, it's on the black market?

YankeeTarheel wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:10 am Reading today that over 19 million vaccinations have been made but most of the states are running out of vaccine. 39 million doses produced, 19 million in arms, SOMEHOW 20 million cannot be accounted for...Is it just the usual Trumpian bureaucratic nightmare, or, being the crook and thug he is, it's on the black market?

Pfizer is counting extra coronavirus vaccine it uses to top off each of its vials toward its commitment to deliver 200 million shots for the U.S. pandemic response — even though there aren't enough syringes capable of squeezing out the extra fluid.

The Trump administration Food and Drug Administration on Jan. 6 approved a Pfizer request to update its vaccine label to clarify that six doses, instead of five, can be drawn from each vial. The new label came several weeks after the agency said pharmacists could administer any surplus they could successfully extract from the vials.

That means Pfizer is delivering fewer vials of vaccine as new, more-contagious coronavirus variants have experts clamoring to increase the pace of vaccinations and some states complain they've run out of shots. The New York Times first reported the change.

“We will fulfill our supply commitments in line with our existing agreements — which are based on delivery of doses, not vials,” Amy Rose, a Pfizer spokesperson, wrote in an email Friday evening.

While drugmakers typically top off vials with extra vaccine to safeguard against spillage and waste, pharmacists administering the first Covid shots discovered there was enough in each vial for an entire extra shot — if they used the right syringes.

The FDA told POLITICO that before it made the label change at Pfizer’s request, it considered the availability of low-dead volume syringes — the type needed to extract the extra dose — and changes already made by the World Health Organization and European Medicines Agency to allow using the extra fluid.

But without enough specialized syringes, Pfizer's decision likely means that the U.S. will have fewer usable doses than it was counting on.

The Centers for Disease Control alarmed some state officials Thursday when the agency indicated it would start counting Pfizer’s vaccine vials as holding six doses, according to an email from the agency obtained by POLITICO. The CDC said it would increase the number of syringes it's shipping with the vaccine, but that they may not be the "low-dead-volume" variety capable of extracting the extra doses.

Bisbee wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:22 pm Oh, and the missing 20 million doses? IF the manufacturers show they were paid for and shipped, then we will know that they were skimmed off like cream from the top. We need to have an official investigation on the matter much like of the Capitol Riot. And then we will have a criminal case on hand for the US Government, find the perps and prosecute.

YankeeTarheel wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:35 pm

Bisbee wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:22 pm Oh, and the missing 20 million doses? IF the manufacturers show they were paid for and shipped, then we will know that they were skimmed off like cream from the top. We need to have an official investigation on the matter much like of the Capitol Riot. And then we will have a criminal case on hand for the US Government, find the perps and prosecute.

And Javaka just bought a $30+ million dollar mansion in Florida....

California scientists have discovered a homegrown coronavirus strain that appears to be propagating faster than any other variant on the loose in the Golden State.

Two independent research groups said they stumbled upon the new strain while looking for signs that a highly transmissible variant from the United Kingdom had established itself here. Instead, they found a new branch of the virus’ family tree — one whose sudden rise and distinctive mutations have made it a prime suspect in California’s vicious holiday surge.

As they pored over genetic sequencing data in late December and early January, the two teams saw evidence of the new strain’s prolific spread leap off their spreadsheets. Though focused on different regions of the state, they uncovered trends that were both remarkably similar and deeply worrying.

Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.

In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.

“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at UC San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”

The new strain, which scientists have dubbed B.1.426, bears five mutations in its genetic code. One of them, known as L452R, alters the virus’ spike protein, the tool it uses to infiltrate human cells and turn them into virus-making factories. Over multiple generations, even a small improvement in this ability will help a virus propagate more easily through a population, driving up infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Spotty surveillance efforts that use genetic sequencing to track changes in the virus had detected a single instance of B.1.426 in California way back in July. As far as scientists can tell, it lay low for the next three months. Then it got busy. The team at Cedars-Sinai collected 192 viral samples from patients at the medical center between Nov. 22 and Dec. 28. At 11 p.m. on New Year’s Eve, they uploaded those samples to their genetic sequencer, which began to spit out the data over the first weekend of the new year. The strain’s sudden prominence elicited both wonder and sorrow.

All thoughts quickly turned to the state’s calamitous COVID-19 surge — a run-up in illness and death that stressed hospitals to their limit, killed more than 18,000 Californians and doubled the state’s total death toll in the space of less than three months.

Had they found the culprit? The preliminary evidence seemed damning. It was certainly found at the scene of the crime. Flummoxed health officials working to contain the outbreak had hypothesized that they were up against a new coronavirus strain with enhanced transmission capabilities. But there were several other suspects to consider as well, including chilly weather, restaurant dining, holiday gatherings and a growing disregard for public health measures. To clarify B.1.426’s role in the surge, investigators will need to determine just how much devastation it is capable of producing. That inquiry will focus on its transmissibility as well as its ability to circumvent the tools — including masks, drugs and vaccines — that can be used to bring the pandemic under control. For now, both sets of researchers doubt they have found a lone actor. But they may have caught an accomplice.

In addition, the strain’s sudden prominence among viral samples in Northern California could be due in part to its role in an unusually large outbreak at Kaiser Permanente San Jose Medical Center that infected at least 77 staffers and 15 patients, and resulted in one employee death. Officials are investigating whether an infected but asymptomatic employee was able to spread the virus widely with the help of a battery-powered fan that was part of an inflatable Christmas tree costume. “It seemed to spread quite fast,” said Dr. Sara Cody, the health officer for Santa Clara County, where the hospital is located. “We are trying to understand whether the features of that outbreak are because of this variant — does this variant of the virus behave in some different way — or does it have to do with other factors that were present at the hospital?”

In Southern California, where the timelines of the surge and B.1.426’s emergence seem better aligned, researchers are more inclined to blame the virus.

Scientists in Chiu’s lab have already begun cultivating armies of the new strain, derived from four patients recently infected with it. Creating large batches under controlled conditions is a first step in testing whether the any of its mutations enhance its ability to latch onto, invade and hijack human cells. Those early efforts have raised cause for concern. “It grows pretty robustly,” Chiu said.

Adding to his concern are the findings of other researchers at Howard University who engineered and tested a version of the coronavirus with the L452R mutation, which rose to prominence in a strain that surfaced in Denmark in March. The Howard team found that the mutation helps the virus attach more firmly to human cells, potentially enhancing its transmission.

In Chiu’s lab, as well as at Cedars-Sinai, scientists will put the new strain through its paces to look for signs that B.1.426’s mutations have enhanced its performance. Other experiments will explore whether the antibodies generated by the immune systems of people who have been infected by or vaccinated against the coronavirus will recognize this new strain.

Some damning evidence has already come to light. State health officials reported this week that a patient in Monterey County who had tested positive for an infection in April and recovered has now been infected with B.1.426.

That suggests that the new strain may be able to hide its presence from antibodies created after exposure to other versions of the virus — a phenomenon known as “immune escape.” If that’s the case, it might undermine the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and antibody-based treatments.

“The takeaway is that this is a variant that’s becoming more prevalent and we need to lean in and understand more about it,” Cody said.

sikacz wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:45 am We’re heading for continuous cycle of failure.

The city-run venue [Dodger Stadium] had been the biggest COVID testing site in the U.S., administering more than 1 million tests in its nearly eight months of operation — and over 10,000 a day during the recent surge. Its redeployment to the cause of vaccination, Newsom declared, provides “an extraordinary world-class site for a world-class logistics operation.”

That effort came with a trade-off: When the city of Los Angeles ended COVID tests at Dodger Stadium and closed another testing site to help staff the new vaccination center, it removed, at least temporarily, about one-third of all government-run testing in Los Angeles County — the nation’s largest county, with a population of 10 million, and one of the biggest COVID hot spots.

Sites operated by the city, county or state account for just over one-third of all COVID tests in L.A. County, said Dr. Clemens Hong, who heads the county’s testing operations. Diminished testing capacity could lead to longer waits for appointments, which means infected people could potentially expose others for a longer time before learning they have the virus.

But with COVID caseloads still high despite their recent decline from peak levels, and mutant strains of the virus threatening to fuel new outbreaks, some senior public health officials say testing remains an equally vital part of the effort to contain — and ultimately suppress — the pandemic.

And it could become even more important in the coming months, as the inoculation campaign gains steam, since the tests could prove a valuable tool for assessing how well the vaccines are working.

San Bernardino County health officials are committed to maintaining testing at current volumes even as they ramp up vaccinations, said Corwin Porter, the director of public health. But he conceded that doing both at the same time “is a struggle” because “we don’t have enough vaccine and we don’t have enough staff.”

The county is holding hiring events every week and working with multiple partners to find additional resources, “because we are trying not to pull anything out of testing or contact tracing,” Porter said.

sikacz wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:45 am We’re heading for continuous cycle of failure.

featureless wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:42 pm My parents and in laws have now all had round one of the vaccine. For their sake, and others here, I hope we get our arms around this shit soon. But, as with climate change, I fear we've let the problem get beyond our ability to contain.

sig230 wrote: Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:17 pm If we just stop testing this will all just fade away.