According to this looks like Obama has it in the bag.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/201 ... ctoral-map

Five months out, nothings in the bag. Polls are useless.

My go-to place for election poll analysis is FiveThirtyEight. Their current analysis agrees, though to a lesser degree. But the election's still a long way off.

whitey wrote:Five months out, nothings in the bag. Polls are useless.

Very, very true, especially since Romney has not, for god knows what reason, yet unleashed much of his super pac money.

Early polling showed Kerry ahead of Bush.

And Gore ahead of Bush.

It ain't over till.....

Minus the hat, I think she's 4 barstools down from me.

mark wrote:Early polling showed Kerry ahead of Bush.

And Gore ahead of Bush.

It ain't over till.....

actually that one was correct.

Kerry the only guy that served in Vietnam that got made fun of.

gendoikari87 wrote:

whitey wrote:Five months out, nothings in the bag. Polls are useless.

Very, very true, especially since Romney has not, for god knows what reason, yet unleashed much of his super pac money.

The Republicans are making a play for Wisconsin. We have an open Senate seat (Herb Kohl Democrat retired) and we are `being hit by negative ads targeting the President and Tammy Baldwin (Democrat who is running for the seat, no other challengers). Given the money they have, I think they have a chance of flipping Wisconsin to the Republicans. The polls say Wi, is tilting to Obama but given the targeting I don't know if it will hold.

The only poll results I hold to be true are the ones that say that polling companies are believed to be making a lot of money this year.

What worries me is losing the Senate. If that happens the health care law will be repealed. Doesn't make me feel any better that the leader for repeal in the House is that bagman Boehner down in the snakehandling part of my home state. There hasn't been as corrupt a politician from Ohio since Senator Marcus Alonzo Hanna. Boehner couldn't get elected dogcatcher in Cleveland. Why the poor vote for him when he'd gut everything they will need to stay alive for the benefit of his corporate paymasters beats me but it's a fact of life, and it's happening in electoral districts all over the US. The Dems need charismatic candidates from the working class who will get out and barnstorm- you can beat corporate money if you have a clean background and get around your electoral district enough. We can't wait for scumbags like Richard Mellon Scaife (who funded the Swift Boaters who did Kerry in) and the Kochs to die (but it'll happen one day not in the distant future) because there are just as many super rich trogs to take their place. Citizens United has to be repealed and for that we need a nonpolitical Supreme Court. I'm so grateful I never wanted to be a lawyer, especially in this country- where the law is whatever weasel idea you can sell a judge that doesn't get reviewed by appeal. The law should say one clear thing and that's it. English professors, not lawyers, should write our laws. Hokay, it's not a perfect country and we're stuck. But the people WILL rise up- it's just a matter of time. The unbearable breaking point will come. Greed has always overreached throughout history.

chevalier wrote:What worries me is losing the Senate. If that happens the health care law will be repealed.

Wouldn't that be a new law that the President would also have to sign? I still think they'd need to overcome that veto.

chevalier wrote:The law should say one clear thing and that's it. English professors, not lawyers, should write our laws.

Too true. Maybe add some logicians in there, too.

wfaulk wrote:

chevalier wrote:What worries me is losing the Senate. If that happens the health care law will be repealed.

Wouldn't that be a new law that the President would also have to sign? I still think they'd need to overcome that veto.

chevalier wrote:The law should say one clear thing and that's it. English professors, not lawyers, should write our laws.

Too true. Maybe add some logicians in there, too.

You should have sociologists and scientists involved in the process too. Business men though, just need to STFU.

I meant (and I assume chevalier meant) the actual writing of the laws. Someone who could accurately write down what was meant, rather than the word salad that so often occurs.

Yo, it's still possible that romney won't be the elephant nominee.

TOMORROW, saturday july 14, nebraska has a convention to choose delegates.

If ron paul wins the delegate choice, he will have won in five states, which allows him to be nominated at the national convention from the floor.

The beating that romney has been taking by being richie rich / thurston howell the third has got to be helping the ron paul people convince nebraskans to vote for paul delegates.

This could seriously become a contested convention.

Not a chance in hell. Ron paul isn't a geinius but also isn't a corporate sell out... or at least not by comparison.

Paladin wrote:Kerry the only guy that served in Vietnam that got made fun of.

That's a very astute observation.

I recall reading a careful analysis of the famous right-wing meme about hippies spitting on returning Vietnam veterans. This historical analysis found zero occurrences of this actually happening. Just right wing mythology, the American version of the Dolchstoss.

Until, of course, Kerry ran for president. Then those same right wing bastards lined up to do exactly what they had decried, to spit (figuratively) on a Vietnam veteran.

And then there's Max Cleland...

larrymod wrote:

Paladin wrote:Kerry the only guy that served in Vietnam that got made fun of.

That's a very astute observation.

I recall reading a careful analysis of the famous right-wing meme about hippies spitting on returning Vietnam veterans. This historical analysis found zero occurrences of this actually happening. Just right wing mythology, the American version of the Dolchstoss.

Until, of course, Kerry ran for president. Then those same right wing bastards lined up to do exactly what they had decried, to spit (figuratively) on a Vietnam veteran.

And then there's Max Cleland...

I don't know if there were zero occurrences but I have a very good friend who served in Vietnam and at his first stop back in the US was called a 'babykiller' by the ticket agent in the airport, got into a fight and had a police escort out of the airport. So, there was definitely a group who saw those who went over in a negative light - but then again, I wasn't alive then so I don't have first hand accounts, and time seems to change history.

gendoikari87 wrote:

wfaulk wrote:

chevalier wrote:What worries me is losing the Senate. If that happens the health care law will be repealed.

Wouldn't that be a new law that the President would also have to sign? I still think they'd need to overcome that veto.

chevalier wrote:The law should say one clear thing and that's it. English professors, not lawyers, should write our laws.

Too true. Maybe add some logicians in there, too.

You should have sociologists and scientists involved in the process too. Business men though, just need to STFU.

Unfortunately, the problem with that is that there are right wing sociologists and scientists also.

When Kerry was running I went into the LGS where they had a big anti-Kerry poster on the wall. I told them that I knew that none of them had to go to war.

I said "I don't get your reasoning here. You paint Kerry as some kind of pansy but none of you have ever used one of these here M16 type weapons to kill an enemy soldier. Kerry did. Instead you are all enthralled with the momma's boy Vietnam dodger. You think he wants to take away your guns?"

"What's enthralled?"

"You are clueless wannabees. I think you like Bush because he reminds you of yourselves."

Something like that.

I feel in my heart, no matter what, If Kerry had been elected the war would ended then.

Yeah, and Max Cleland.

chevalier wrote:
Unfortunately, the problem with that is that there are right wing sociologists and scientists also.

Very, VERY few however. And even then, those few aren't adverse to reason.

My one other thought about George Bush is how he had people hoodwinked into thinking he was a Good ol' Boy from the South. The Bushes are from the East Coast High Society. He was a legacy at Yale. You really would be hard pressed to find a bigger WASP.

Paladin wrote:My one other thought about George Bush is how he had people hoodwinked into thinking he was a Good ol' Boy from the South. The Bushes are from the East Coast High Society. He was a legacy at Yale. You really would be hard pressed to find a bigger WASP.

You take that back, you gosh durn yaankkkkeeee.

chevalier wrote:Doesn't make me feel any better that the leader for repeal in the House is that bagman Boehner down in the snakehandling part of my home state. There hasn't been as corrupt a politician from Ohio since Senator Marcus Alonzo Hanna. Boehner couldn't get elected dogcatcher in Cleveland.

Boehner couldn't get elected dogcatcher in Cuyahoga County because he is no match for the crooked Dems up there like Jimmy DiMora and Frank Russo and Calabrese the 3rd.

And despite the roller coaster ride we are in for between now and November, Obama will get re-elected. He's been a good war president. I don't expect that to change when we are embroiled in a war with Iran next year.

chevalier wrote:What worries me is losing the Senate. If that happens the health care law will be repealed.

But don't you know that the Republicans changed the rules? You need 60 not 51 to win a vote now. Otherwise the minority just filabusters and nothing gets done. That's the Republican way!