Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1901
CDFingers wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 3:36 pm I'm of the boomer generation. I see the baton has been passed. I breathe a sigh of relief. Just to remind, let's remember President Wilson for a couple years, and FDR the last couple months. Biden wasn't exactly Weekend at Bernie's. When we look at his record, we see measurable accomplishments. Before I roast Harris, I want to ensure that the magats allow the election to proceed appropriately. If they block certification all over and force the election into the House, it will be very messy. Let's hope steps are being taken. I believe they are. And I believe I'll have a beer.

CDF
Silent Generation here. I agree with your post and I just popped a cap on a Modelo Negra!
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1902
LULAC has broken tradition and for first time ever endorsed a presidential candidate - Kamala - that's how scary turd to be.
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1903
The Electoral Count Act of 1887 was finally updated with the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022. The sponsors were Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) with bi-partisan support and Biden signed it into law.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral ... ct_of_2022

Things will work a little differently this presidential election.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1904
LAS VEGAS — Former President Donald Trump is no longer the betting favorite to win the election.

Vice President Kamala Harris has become the favorite to win the presidency for the first time since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race July 21 and endorsed her.

Harris has a 50.5% chance to win the election, which equates to the -102 favorite, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com and Polymarket.com.

Trump’s chances dipped to 47.1%, or +112, at the site where his chances were as high as 67.9% following a failed assassination attempt July 13.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2024/ ... o-win-ele/

CDF
Well, the first days are the hardest days: don't you worry any more.
When life looks like Easy Street there is danger at your door.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1905
Eris wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 2:32 pm
VodoundaVinci wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 1:21 pm
Ylatkit wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2024 1:18 pm It just occurred to me that she is going to have to tabulate the electoral vote that will either elect her or defeat her.
Good point. I wonder if Trumps folks are going to exploit that aspect.

VooDoo
I doubt it will be an issue. This kind of thing has happened before. When GWH Bush succeeded Reagan, and Gore tried to follow Clinton just in my lifetime. I expect there's already some sort of protocol in place for this.
Nixon had to do it for JFK in 1960. Humphrey had to do it for Nixon in 1968.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1906
New battleground/swing state polls:

Carolina Journal/Cygnal poll:
North Carolina - Trump 47% / Harris 44%

Trafalgar Group polls:
North Carolina - Trump 49% / Harris 45%
Pennsylvania - Trump 46% / Harris 44%
Nevada - Trump 48% / Harris 45%
Arizona - Trump 48% / Harris 47%

InsiderAdvantage polls:
Wisconsin - Trump 49% / Harris 48%
Michigan - Harris 49% / Trump 47%

New York Times/Siena College polls:
Pennsylvania - Harris 50% / Trump 46%
Michigan - Harris 50% / Trump 46%
Wisconsin - Harris 50% / Trump 46%
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1908
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PhrWJZO5LaE

I must say I enjoy her smile and infectious laugh or cackle as turd would say. Watching some of their rally in AZ, I'm enthused she and Walz can kick turds ass. She is a vast improvement over Biden and miles above turd.

Copied from USA Today article:
Trump's running mate JD Vance has mocked Harris as a childless cat lady, (though she actually has two stepchildren). In many of the stories about Hindu mythology, a Devi vanquishes an egotistical opponent. Often, she’s riding a lion or a tiger ‒ in other words, a big cat, Rau said, chuckling at the parallels.

“It’s tremendous justice that a powerful woman who's bright, who's intelligent, who's together, who's confident, who knows right from wrong and who is multicultural would be taking him on,” Rau said.
Devi is Kamala's middle name.
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1910
CDFingers wrote: Sat Aug 10, 2024 1:58 pm Happy warriors will crush the whiners.

CDF
I truly believe they will. Kamala's quick rise, deserved or not, is because people really hate turd and she gives them an out She give sane people hope.
"Being Republican is more than a difference of opinion - it's a character flaw." "COVID can fix STUPID!"
The greatest, most aggrieved mistake EVER made in USA was electing DJT as POTUS.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1911
On June 10th at a rally in Las Vegas, Trump said he'd abolish the federal income tax on tips that employees are required to pay.

On August 10th in Las Vegas, Harris promised to eliminate the income tax on employee tips.

This is a very very close election.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1912
Prediction markets for elections are not, strictly speaking, generally legal in the United States. PredictIt has an exemption for research reasons that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is constantly threatening to shut down. The other major markets I’ve been referencing throughout this piece, Betfair and Polymarket, generally don’t allow Americans to participate. (Betfair makes exceptions for Americans in a few states.) These restrictions have two major downsides. One is that the people who know the most about the elections — like journalists or political staffers — are generally restricted from betting on it, which means that the markets are much less useful as information aggregators. (A futures market around, say, soybeans would be much less accurate if companies that know soybeans couldn’t participate in it.) Without the savviest people allowed to take part, the crowd is inherently less wise.

Possibly more importantly, these restrictions mean that the markets have limited liquidity in general. (Liquidity refers to how much money is changing hands on the market.) For big questions, like “Biden vs. Trump,” the liquidity is okay — hundreds of millions of dollars exchanging hands. But for smaller markets, it’s a huge problem. One manifestation: The markets have a persistent tendency to overrate hugely long-shot candidates like Michelle Obama, and in the immediate aftermath of the debate, California Gov. Gavin Newsom emerged as by far the likeliest replacement for Biden as opposed to Vice President Kamala Harris, which seems highly unlikely. These conditions all mean there aren’t enough trades happening to correct such errors. The low liquidity also means that markets are relatively easy to manipulate, which has happened at least once.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/3601 ... rris-polls

Foreigners betting on the US election doesn't make betting predictions the equivalent of polling done of US voters.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1913
Former President Donald Trump’s campaign said Saturday that some of its internal communications had been hacked. The acknowledgment came after POLITICO began receiving emails from an anonymous account with documents from inside Trump’s operation. The campaign blamed “foreign sources hostile to the United States,” citing a Microsoft report on Friday that Iranian hackers “sent a spear phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign.” Microsoft did not identify the campaign targeted by the email and declined to comment Saturday. POLITICO has not independently verified the identity of the hacker or their motivation, and a Trump campaign spokesperson, Steven Cheung, declined to say if they had further information substantiating the campaigns’ suggestion that it was targeted by Iran. “These documents were obtained illegally from foreign sources hostile to the United States, intended to interfere with the 2024 election and sow chaos throughout our Democratic process,” Cheung said. “On Friday, a new report from Microsoft found that Iranian hackers broke into the account of a ‘high ranking official’ on the U.S. presidential campaign in June 2024, which coincides with the close timing of President Trump’s selection of a vice presidential nominee.” Cheung declined to say whether the campaign had been in contact with Microsoft or law enforcement about the breach, saying it would not discuss such conversations.

On July 22, POLITICO began receiving emails from an anonymous account. Over the course of the past few weeks, the person — who used an AOL email account and identified themselves only as “Robert” — relayed what appeared to be internal communications from a senior Trump campaign official. A research dossier the campaign had apparently done on Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, which was dated Feb. 23, was included in the documents. The documents are authentic, according to two people familiar with them and granted anonymity to describe internal communications. One of the people described the dossier as a preliminary version of Vance’s vetting file. The research dossier was a 271-page document based on publicly available information about Vance’s past record and statements, with some — such as his past criticisms of Trump — identified in the document as “POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES.” The person also sent part of a research document about Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who was also a finalist for the vice presidential nomination. The person said they had a “variety of documents from [Trump’s] legal and court documents to internal campaign discussions.”
Last month, reports emerged of the U.S. intelligence community receiving increasing evidence suggesting Iran was working on plots to kill Trump in retaliation for his decision to order the assassination of Iranian military officer Qassem Soleimani in 2020. There is no indication that the shooter who targeted Trump at a rally last month was connected to the plot. In his statement Saturday, Cheung pointed to those reports, saying, “The Iranians know that President Trump will stop their reign of terror just like he did in his first four years in the White House.” Iranian government officials could not immediately be reached for comment.

In 2016, top Democratic Party officials were hacked ahead of the presidential election. The breach resulted in the leak of embarrassing emails documenting the inner workings of the party and former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s campaign. National security officials later blamed Russia for orchestrating the hacking effort. Many of those emails were later disseminated to WikiLeaks, a website that publishes leaked documents, and were published in the run-up to Election Day with an eye toward embarrassing Clinton’s political operation. In 2017, the Justice Department launched an investigation into Russian interference in the election and what role Trump associates played in the hacking effort. Special counsel Robert Mueller ultimately concluded he lacked sufficient evidence to seek criminal charges against Trump or his campaign for allegedly conspiring with the Russians. However, he described a Trump campaign that encouraged the hack and was eager to capitalize on the materials, and he described significant efforts by Trump and some allies that hampered investigators’ ability to obtain key communications and testimony that might have shed more light on the matter.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/1 ... k-00173503

Hackers from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea have been active during past presidential campaigns are are expected to be active in the 2024 presidential campaign.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1914
I guess "polling" is the best thread for this info. It turns out that ProPublica somehow got hold of 14 hours of training videos for people who want to implement Project 2025, and they've posted it. We've seen the headlines that Americans don't like the project. The postings will fuel that resentment.
Project 2025, the controversial playbook and policy agenda for a right-wing presidential administration, has lost its director and faced scathing criticism from both Democratic groups and former President Donald Trump. But Project 2025’s plan to train an army of political appointees who could battle against the so-called deep state government bureaucracy on behalf of a future Trump administration remains on track.

One centerpiece of that program is dozens of never-before-published videos created for Project 2025’s Presidential Administration Academy. The vast majority of these videos — 23 in all, totaling more than 14 hours of content — were provided to ProPublica and Documented by a person who had access to them.

The Project 2025 videos coach future appointees on everything from the nuts and bolts of governing to how to outwit bureaucrats. There are strategies for avoiding embarrassing Freedom of Information Act disclosures and ensuring that conservative policies aren’t struck down by “left-wing judges.” Some of the content is routine advice that any incoming political appointee might be told. Other segments of the training offer guidance on radically changing how the federal government works and what it does.
https://www.propublica.org/article/insi ... p-election

It's undecided voters who will decide the election. And we all have to wonder how many voters will decide they loves them some Project 2025. I'm guessing on insufficient love.

CDF
Well, the first days are the hardest days: don't you worry any more.
When life looks like Easy Street there is danger at your door.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1915
Huge file: NPR fact checks them all.
But there was so much more. A team of NPR reporters and editors reviewed the transcript of his news conference and found at least 162 misstatements, exaggerations and outright lies in 64 minutes. That’s more than two a minute. It’s a stunning number for anyone – and even more problematic for a person running to lead the free world.
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/nx-s1-50 ... conference

True polls I think will lag two weeks, so his drop in the polls now should scare the socks off him.

CDF
Well, the first days are the hardest days: don't you worry any more.
When life looks like Easy Street there is danger at your door.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1917
She does not yet need to take questions I think. She is riding the vibe wave likely until the end of the convention. I think it's being played well: they're just letting TOS keep shooting into his foot to the amusement of all.

Today is trash day, so before I put the cans out I'm going to watch DJT pump and dump on the stock market for a while.

CDF
Well, the first days are the hardest days: don't you worry any more.
When life looks like Easy Street there is danger at your door.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1918
highdesert wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:21 am Everything politicians say during an election is suspect, they lie, they exaggerate and they inflate. Is NPR doing the same for Harris' speeches, she hasn't taken questions from any reporters.
Yup.

Harris dodging any and all questions is a shit look, especially after the Biden debacle. What's she hiding?

The campaign has walked back a series of her earlier policies that don't play well. I want to see a presidential candidate think on their feet, not just read.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1919
featureless wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:31 am
highdesert wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:21 am Everything politicians say during an election is suspect, they lie, they exaggerate and they inflate. Is NPR doing the same for Harris' speeches, she hasn't taken questions from any reporters.
Yup.

Harris dodging any and all questions is a shit look, especially after the Biden debacle. What's she hiding?

The campaign has walked back a series of her earlier policies that don't play well. I want to see a presidential candidate think on their feet, not just read.
Which ones have they walked back?
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1921
When VP KAMALA HARRIS endorsed the notion of exempting tip income from federal taxation at a Las Vegas rally on Saturday, most people took note of the fact that she hijacked the policy from DONALD TRUMP (including, as we noted yesterday, Trump himself). What caught our eye was that she had endorsed any policy proposal at all. Now three weeks into her campaign, and with the Democratic National Convention just a week away, Harris has ridden a wave of base enthusiasm and swing-voter relief to put the presidency back into play. What she hasn’t done yet is settle on a plan for governing, except in the broadest of strokes. Her stump speech has framed the campaign as a “fight for the future” without saying much about what precisely that future would entail. There’s no 100-day agenda, let alone a detailed tax policy white paper.

Say what you will about Trump’s, um, uneven interest in policymaking, his Republican allies have been laying the groundwork for a return to power for months. Top congressional leaders have plotted their first moves, including how they might use the fast-track reconciliation process to pass tax cuts, regulation rollbacks and more. (That’s to say nothing of the now-renounced Project 2025.) On one hand, the lack of clarity from Harris is understandable. A month ago, anyone talking about a 2025 Democratic agenda would have been laughed out of a room given the concerns over JOE BIDEN’s vitality. And it’s tricky, of course, running to succeed a sitting president as VP. But the pressure is mounting on Harris to say more, and it’s not just about persuading voters, as a new WaPo editorial argues, it’s about governing: “Elections aren’t just about winning. They’re about accumulating political capital for a particular agenda, which Ms. Harris can’t do unless she articulates one,” they write. “The more substance Ms. Harris can offer before the election … the more of a mandate she would have to govern should she prevail in November.”

Over the weekend, we saw hints that more details are coming. In Arizona on Friday, she sketched out the bare bones of a border agenda, promising to sign the bipartisan border security bill that Trump killed earlier this year. On Saturday, before making her tax-free-tips endorsement, she told reporters she would roll out a more comprehensive economic agenda this week. That’s a political necessity, as Myah Ward points out this morning in a piece on the five major questions facing Harris right now: “Voters are still deeply worried about the economy and inflation,” she writes, and “public perception of the economy is a weak spot for Democrats.” What remains to be seen is how she will distinguish herself from Biden. We’ll note that the only public event on Harris’s schedule this week so far is a joint appearance with the incumbent in Maryland on Thursday to discuss “the progress they are making to lower costs for the American people.” So far, with the exception of the tips proposal, she has mostly adopted Biden’s economic agenda in her remarks as a presidential candidate — promising to tackle “junk fees,” prescription drug prices and high housing costs. She has kept Biden’s no-tax-hikes pledge for those making under $400,000 but hasn’t weighed on thorny particulars as the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts approaches next year — such as whether she wants to, say, restore the full state and local tax deduction or send out the monthly child tax credit checks families enjoyed during the pandemic.

Most Democratic insiders we spoke to, however, are totally fine keeping things vague. There’s a sense that Harris should continue to ride the wave of enthusiasm rather than change the conversation by offering up specifics. “Values unite and specific policies divide, so I don’t think there is a desire to spend the next 80 days litigating Medicare for All, for example,” one senior Democratic congressional aide told Playbook. Added a frontline Democratic lawmaker: “Why would we start talking about policy? ... We’re actually better off just running on this real wave of enthusiasm and energy. … It’s the best thing [Harris] can do.” Top Hill leaders appear happy to stick to the basics. During a virtual Democratic caucus meeting last week, for example, deputies of House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES gave a PowerPoint presentation that outlined a big-picture “People Over Politics” message to run on: “Lowering housing and health care costs”; “Tax relief for hardworking American families”; “Make corporations pay their fair share” and so forth.

Asked what Senate Democrats might do if they keep their majority, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER last month was similarly fuzzy: “Things like democracy … tax bills we’re looking at that help families and the child tax credit … doing more for clean energy, doing more for transportation and education,” he said. “There are many different things we will do.” The risk of ambiguity is that Republicans stand ready to fill the void by reminding voters of the many policies Harris backed during the 2020 presidential primary (and since repudiated), including eliminating private health insurance, decriminalizing border crossings and banning fracking. But the Democrats we spoke to said they are comfortable nonetheless. “It’s fair to expect that she will continue to spotlight issues that will be top priorities for her and also drive contrasts between her and Donald Trump,” one person close to the Harris campaign told Playbook last night. “Getting into the legislative mechanics of how you will pass those things is a conversation for later.”
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/pl ... lid=630318

The "vibe" won't last, being the "not Trump candidate" won't win the election, HRC tried that in 2016.
The party holding the White House always talks up how great things are and all the great things they've done. The party out of power always talks up the problems in the country and what they'd do to solve them. In 2020 when Biden ran against Trump he talked of all the chaos and problems caused by Trump, now Trump talks of all the problems caused by Biden.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1922
sikacz wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:35 am
featureless wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:31 am
highdesert wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:21 am Everything politicians say during an election is suspect, they lie, they exaggerate and they inflate. Is NPR doing the same for Harris' speeches, she hasn't taken questions from any reporters.
Yup.

Harris dodging any and all questions is a shit look, especially after the Biden debacle. What's she hiding?

The campaign has walked back a series of her earlier policies that don't play well. I want to see a presidential candidate think on their feet, not just read.
Which ones have they walked back?
Not gun control, but they're not talking about an AWB. See the thread on Democrats half hearted move to the center and an earlier article I posted on this thread. Current reporting of the Harris campaign shows the political lean of American news reporters, no one is pushing the Harris campaign for interviews and press conferences. They're just reporting the "vibe of enthusiasm" surrounding her candidacy. Harris is trying to walk a tightrope towards the center, without her blue coast supporters noticing.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1923
sikacz wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:35 am
featureless wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:31 am
highdesert wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:21 am Everything politicians say during an election is suspect, they lie, they exaggerate and they inflate. Is NPR doing the same for Harris' speeches, she hasn't taken questions from any reporters.
Yup.

Harris dodging any and all questions is a shit look, especially after the Biden debacle. What's she hiding?

The campaign has walked back a series of her earlier policies that don't play well. I want to see a presidential candidate think on their feet, not just read.
Which ones have they walked back?
Highdesert answered any legit statements I've seen (very few). Mostly the walk back has been don't utter in in the script. Errors of omission?

She's picked up Trump's no tax on tips, so there's that.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1924
featureless wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 10:50 am
sikacz wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:35 am
featureless wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:31 am
highdesert wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2024 9:21 am Everything politicians say during an election is suspect, they lie, they exaggerate and they inflate. Is NPR doing the same for Harris' speeches, she hasn't taken questions from any reporters.
Yup.

Harris dodging any and all questions is a shit look, especially after the Biden debacle. What's she hiding?

The campaign has walked back a series of her earlier policies that don't play well. I want to see a presidential candidate think on their feet, not just read.
Which ones have they walked back?
Highdesert answered any legit statements I've seen (very few). Mostly the walk back has been don't utter in in the script. Errors of omission?

She's picked up Trump's no tax on tips, so there's that.
Well this is nothing new. Politicians get smart they won’t talk about the things they intend to do that may be controversial. So if she doesn’t talk about her gun control points it doesn’t mean she’s forgotten about them. I’m pretty sure I know her political emphasis and it won’t be good for gun owners and I bet some minority communities will find she’s not that committed to their issues either.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

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