Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1227
YankeeTarheel wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 5:06 pm
highdesert wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:42 am The two parties want voters to have only two choices, they don't want a multiple party system.
Every time I see you or someone say this, it annoys the SHIT out of me because it simply is because you et al refuse to accept inconvenient facts!
Fact 1: In our system, in one of their many colossal blunders writing the Constitution, because they feared that "factions" (parties) would mess up natural democracy, they made no recognition of them. In other nations if a party gets 10% of the vote, it gets 10% of the seats in the legislature. If it gets 25%, it gets 25% of the seats. But in our system you have to win 25% of the seats FIRST to get 25% of the seats in Congress. So we get a few here and there like Bernie, Angus, and AOC.

Fact 2: Powerful forces in the USA are NO DIFFERENT than they are in the UK, Germany, Italy, Israel, Australia, and other parliamentary systems. They have the same desires, urges, craving for power, and hunger to eliminate rivals. Yet in all those other nations, somehow, they successfully have multiple party systems.

Fact 3: Third parties have ONLY succeeded when a) another party dies. Whigs died and Whigs became Republicans. Lincoln was a Whig first. b) the Election of 1856 had 4 parties running. Former President Fillmore won Maryland and 8(?) EVs. But all the 3rd and 4th parties did was water down John Fremont's support, running as the first Republican. c) when they are absorbed into one of the 2 parties: The Populist Party of the midwest agrarian interests in the last quarter of the 1800s. When William Jennings Bryan was nominated in 1896 on the 5th ballot, he was running on the main aim of the populists: Bimetalism. He was nominated by BOTH parties, with a Dem VP and Thomas Watson as his Populist VP.

Roosevelt's Bull Moose party ALMOST displaced the Republicans but fell apart. Strom Thurmond's Dixiecrats probably upended Dewey in 1948. Wallace DID cost Humphrey the election in 1968, as Perot cost Bush I in 1992.

Again, it's because WE don't recognize factions but all the other democracies do. So only the top two survive and it has NOTHING to do with what those two want. If it did, then the top two in all those other countries would have eliminated all the 3rd parties.

I've got to say this: We laugh and fret that the MAGA crowd hangs onto their beliefs NO MATTER the evidence, with 10 zillions excuses and exceptions and explanations for why it's all, All, ALL fake! They misremember history, and replace insults and rage with rational arguments. I cannot change their new fervent religious belief in this orange charlatan. But why, oh, why, do people here do the same damn thing in different contexts?
Amen Brother, Preach the Gospel.

Reality actually is whether we like it or not.

The system is set up by our Constitution and the only two methods to modify it are also established by the Constitution. We can Amend the Constitution but only through the process (have I used that term before) that are outlined in the current Constitution (see the current fate of the Equal Rights Amendment) or through throwing the whole thing out and calling a NEW Constitutional Convention into being.

What's more, there are NO third party candidates that would be better than Biden.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1228
sig230 wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 7:39 pm
YankeeTarheel wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 5:06 pm
highdesert wrote: Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:42 am The two parties want voters to have only two choices, they don't want a multiple party system.
Every time I see you or someone say this, it annoys the SHIT out of me because it simply is because you et al refuse to accept inconvenient facts!
Fact 1: In our system, in one of their many colossal blunders writing the Constitution, because they feared that "factions" (parties) would mess up natural democracy, they made no recognition of them. In other nations if a party gets 10% of the vote, it gets 10% of the seats in the legislature. If it gets 25%, it gets 25% of the seats. But in our system you have to win 25% of the seats FIRST to get 25% of the seats in Congress. So we get a few here and there like Bernie, Angus, and AOC.

Fact 2: Powerful forces in the USA are NO DIFFERENT than they are in the UK, Germany, Italy, Israel, Australia, and other parliamentary systems. They have the same desires, urges, craving for power, and hunger to eliminate rivals. Yet in all those other nations, somehow, they successfully have multiple party systems.

Fact 3: Third parties have ONLY succeeded when a) another party dies. Whigs died and Whigs became Republicans. Lincoln was a Whig first. b) the Election of 1856 had 4 parties running. Former President Fillmore won Maryland and 8(?) EVs. But all the 3rd and 4th parties did was water down John Fremont's support, running as the first Republican. c) when they are absorbed into one of the 2 parties: The Populist Party of the midwest agrarian interests in the last quarter of the 1800s. When William Jennings Bryan was nominated in 1896 on the 5th ballot, he was running on the main aim of the populists: Bimetalism. He was nominated by BOTH parties, with a Dem VP and Thomas Watson as his Populist VP.

Roosevelt's Bull Moose party ALMOST displaced the Republicans but fell apart. Strom Thurmond's Dixiecrats probably upended Dewey in 1948. Wallace DID cost Humphrey the election in 1968, as Perot cost Bush I in 1992.

Again, it's because WE don't recognize factions but all the other democracies do. So only the top two survive and it has NOTHING to do with what those two want. If it did, then the top two in all those other countries would have eliminated all the 3rd parties.

I've got to say this: We laugh and fret that the MAGA crowd hangs onto their beliefs NO MATTER the evidence, with 10 zillions excuses and exceptions and explanations for why it's all, All, ALL fake! They misremember history, and replace insults and rage with rational arguments. I cannot change their new fervent religious belief in this orange charlatan. But why, oh, why, do people here do the same damn thing in different contexts?
Amen Brother, Preach the Gospel.

Reality actually is whether we like it or not.

The system is set up by our Constitution and the only two methods to modify it are also established by the Constitution. We can Amend the Constitution but only through the process (have I used that term before) that are outlined in the current Constitution (see the current fate of the Equal Rights Amendment) or through throwing the whole thing out and calling a NEW Constitutional Convention into being.

What's more, there are NO third party candidates that would be better than Biden.
Thank you, but I expect the purveyors of this fantasy that the current powers that be are behind it, won't consider my argument.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1230
There are no third party members in the US House or the US Senate, there are a few Independents. Currently there are 3 Independents in the Senate and none in the House. RFK, Jr is the only third party presidential candidate who has held federal elective office, Stein and West haven't, but Donald Trump never held elective office before being elected president.

The founding fathers didn't want political parties because they saw how they worked in England, they were idealists. The American Revolution was a political event, not every colonist supported it. It's inevitable that partisanship would develop in the US, but US parties weren't copies of English political parties.

Seems like everyone around here has decided who they'll vote for in November or not vote for. There aren't enough of us here to change any vote spread in this election. And no one is changing their minds, so it's just old men arguing about politics.
Last edited by highdesert on Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1231
New polling out from Fox News. Fox doesn't do their own polling it's done by a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster.

Arizona - Trump 51% - Biden 46% - Trump +5 points
Nevada - Trump 50% - Biden 45% - Trump +5 points
Florida - Trump 50% - Biden 46% - Trump + 4 points
Virginia - Trump 48% - Biden 48% - Tie

We'll have to see if Florida and Virginia are really in play or if this is an outlier poll.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1233
highdesert wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:27 am There are no third party members in the US House or the US Senate, there are a few Independents. Currently there are 3 Independents in the Senate and none in the House. RFK, Jr is the only third party presidential candidate who has held federal elective office, Stein and West haven't, but Donald Trump never held elective office before being elected president.

The founding fathers didn't want political parties because they saw how they worked in England, they were idealists. The American Revolution was a political event, not every colonist supported it. It's inevitable that partisanship would develop in the US, but US parties weren't copies of English political parties.

Seems like everyone around here has decided who they'll vote for in November or not vote for. There aren't enough of us here to change any vote spread in this election. And no one is changing their minds, so it's just old men arguing about politics.
For most of us it appears the decisions have been made and everyone is entitled to vote their conscience. My biggest objection is to people saying there is “only” this or insisting on a binary choice and trying to invalidate another person’s perspective. You can choose your own path you can’t choose another person’s path and you can’t insist someone follows yours. Calling another person an idiot for not accepting your argument is uncalled for as well in a society where the freedom to express our differences is supposed to be a founding principle. I can’t say I expect any different when politics has become a two team sports event, not all of us like sports or even the teams involved. I want to keep my right to object. Whatever judgement each of us has, another person’s is no more valid. Some here don’t even try to understand another person’s perspective anymore they simply double down on their party dogma and insist on the you’re either with us or against us argument. Both parties at the moment are crap and so are both the candidates. Spare me the argument that I should accept someone else’s judgement just because they think the other guy is worse. I don’t think that strategy leads to a solution ever. That’s my conviction and my right to stand by.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1235
sikacz wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 1:21 pm
highdesert wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:27 am There are no third party members in the US House or the US Senate, there are a few Independents. Currently there are 3 Independents in the Senate and none in the House. RFK, Jr is the only third party presidential candidate who has held federal elective office, Stein and West haven't, but Donald Trump never held elective office before being elected president.

The founding fathers didn't want political parties because they saw how they worked in England, they were idealists. The American Revolution was a political event, not every colonist supported it. It's inevitable that partisanship would develop in the US, but US parties weren't copies of English political parties.

Seems like everyone around here has decided who they'll vote for in November or not vote for. There aren't enough of us here to change any vote spread in this election. And no one is changing their minds, so it's just old men arguing about politics.
For most of us it appears the decisions have been made and everyone is entitled to vote their conscience. My biggest objection is to people saying there is “only” this or insisting on a binary choice and trying to invalidate another person’s perspective. You can choose your own path you can’t choose another person’s path and you can’t insist someone follows yours. Calling another person an idiot for not accepting your argument is uncalled for as well in a society where the freedom to express our differences is supposed to be a founding principle. I can’t say I expect any different when politics has become a two team sports event, not all of us like sports or even the teams involved. I want to keep my right to object. Whatever judgement each of us has, another person’s is no more valid. Some here don’t even try to understand another person’s perspective anymore they simply double down on their party dogma and insist on the you’re either with us or against us argument. Both parties at the moment are crap and so are both the candidates. Spare me the argument that I should accept someone else’s judgement just because they think the other guy is worse. I don’t think that strategy leads to a solution ever. That’s my conviction and my right to stand by.
Actually, you are going to accept either Trump or Biden as President regardless of how you vote.

Today I had to go get groceries and there was one of the Trump car/truck parades. It stretched about a half mile in length and lots of 'Don't Tread on Me', Confederate Battle Flag, upside down US Flags, 'Appeal to Heaven' flag and 'Free the Jan 6th Hostages' banners.

Under our system one of the two will get elected President.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1236
sig230 wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 1:53 pm
sikacz wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 1:21 pm
highdesert wrote: Sat Jun 08, 2024 9:27 am There are no third party members in the US House or the US Senate, there are a few Independents. Currently there are 3 Independents in the Senate and none in the House. RFK, Jr is the only third party presidential candidate who has held federal elective office, Stein and West haven't, but Donald Trump never held elective office before being elected president.

The founding fathers didn't want political parties because they saw how they worked in England, they were idealists. The American Revolution was a political event, not every colonist supported it. It's inevitable that partisanship would develop in the US, but US parties weren't copies of English political parties.

Seems like everyone around here has decided who they'll vote for in November or not vote for. There aren't enough of us here to change any vote spread in this election. And no one is changing their minds, so it's just old men arguing about politics.
For most of us it appears the decisions have been made and everyone is entitled to vote their conscience. My biggest objection is to people saying there is “only” this or insisting on a binary choice and trying to invalidate another person’s perspective. You can choose your own path you can’t choose another person’s path and you can’t insist someone follows yours. Calling another person an idiot for not accepting your argument is uncalled for as well in a society where the freedom to express our differences is supposed to be a founding principle. I can’t say I expect any different when politics has become a two team sports event, not all of us like sports or even the teams involved. I want to keep my right to object. Whatever judgement each of us has, another person’s is no more valid. Some here don’t even try to understand another person’s perspective anymore they simply double down on their party dogma and insist on the you’re either with us or against us argument. Both parties at the moment are crap and so are both the candidates. Spare me the argument that I should accept someone else’s judgement just because they think the other guy is worse. I don’t think that strategy leads to a solution ever. That’s my conviction and my right to stand by.
Actually, you are going to accept either Trump or Biden as President regardless of how you vote.

Today I had to go get groceries and there was one of the Trump car/truck parades. It stretched about a half mile in length and lots of 'Don't Tread on Me', Confederate Battle Flag, upside down US Flags, 'Appeal to Heaven' flag and 'Free the Jan 6th Hostages' banners.

Under our system one of the two will get elected President.
I won't cede the appeal to heaven, Gadsen flag or US flag to the trumpets. They have historical significance for all of us.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1238
President Joe Biden is running out of the tools — and the time — he needs to turn around Americans’ gloomy view of the U.S. economy. On Friday, the nation got the latest sign that it’s in a sustained economic upswing, adding 272,000 jobs in May. But the surprise show of labor market strength is unlikely to sway a downcast public fixated on rising prices, the cost of housing and high interest rates. And Democrats are starting to outwardly despair that the economic tailwinds they once imagined lifting Biden to reelection aren’t materializing, at least not in the eyes of voters. Lacking big new policy proposals or messaging gambits, the White House has revived some old tactics they hope can drive fresh gains: A renewed pressure campaign on companies to slash prices, coupled with high-volume attacks on the “corporate greed” that Biden blames for driving up costs.

The White House has most recently targeted grocery chains and retailers where higher prices have most visibly pinched people’s budgets, urging the industry in public calls and a series of private conversations to cut prices wherever possible. While the administration has so far refrained from openly criticizing specific companies, senior aides have personally pressed major retail executives behind the scenes to help curb the price hikes hitting family budgets. “If half of the people think that unemployment is at a 50-year high when it’s actually close to a 50-year low, this is a problem of misinformation, it’s a problem of perception,” said Ben Harris, a former senior Treasury Department official who helped craft Biden’s economic agenda. “I think, unfortunately, it’ll have a major impact on the election.”

Democrats rarely win outright majorities on economic issues, where voters historically favor Republicans. But core to Biden’s electoral strategy was the bet that he could methodically and significantly close the deficit by showing voters the myriad ways his policies improved their lives. But polls show Biden remains hampered by people’s low awareness of his achievements and heavy focus on the high price of key expenses like groceries, gas and housing. That challenge is especially acute with the younger, poorer and minority voters that Biden needs most but who have also taken the brunt of rising costs and high interest rates.“ The policies are working. They are quite successful,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. “But you can’t even talk about it because everyone’s got a food item they’re buying that’s 25 percent more than four years ago, and they can’t get beyond that.”
Others in the party have argued the opposite: That Biden needs to express more empathy for the financial pain voters are still feeling.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/0 ... t-00162338

Yup Biden and his surrogates need to acknowledge that food and consumer prices are too high along with housing costs. And they should state the administrations plan to change it starting now. Name and shame corporations that inflated grocery and consumer prices, name and shame property corporations that inflate rental costs...
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1241
This presidential election is looking more and more like a re-run of the 2016 presidential election with two unpopular candidates and we know how 2016 turned out.

RCP Average of Biden's approval rating: Approve 39.9% and Disapprove 56.1% - spread of 16.2

538 Average of Biden's approval rating: Approve 37.6% and Disapprove 56.6% - spread of 18.9


More from the CBS News/YouGov poll:

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump ... 6-09-2024/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1242
As facts are stubborn things, and as repetition of a fact--convicted felon--tends to embed that fact in a functioning mind, I predict that repeating the facts by November will result in a Dem sweep. It's theirs to lose.

Note the recent crime stats.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases ... %20percent.

There exist way many more positive Dem facts. It's the Dems' to lose.

CDF
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1243
News Nation quotes the LAPD,
According to the Los Angeles Police Department, homicides have increased by 10.6% year-to-date as of June 4. Robberies have also jumped by 17.6% over 2023, and more specifically, robberies that have taken place at Los Angeles businesses, restaurants, liquor stores and clothing stores account for 894 robberies this year, which is up 43.6% from 2023.

Los Angeles isn’t the only California city experiencing a jump in crime, according to police. Homicides are up 83% in Long Beach and 133% in Fresno compared to 2023. Meanwhile, car thefts are up 52% in Long Beach, while shoplifting is up 79% in San Bernadino, according to law enforcement statistics. Newsom is aware that California has become synonymous with videos of smash-and-grab crimes going viral across the U.S., which has prompted a crackdown on crime in recent months.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/crime/cal ... m-prop-47/

CA law enforcement and retailers are trying to overturn Prop 47 passed in 2014, it reduced sentences for particular crimes, but Newsom and Democrats in the CA Legislature are fighting it.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1245
featureless wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 5:11 pm
highdesert wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 4:33 pm
CA law enforcement and retailers are trying to overturn Prop 47 passed in 2014, it reduced sentences for particular crimes, but Newsom and Democrats in the CA Legislature are fighting it.
Gavy knows best. And those areas are still dragging ass on CCW permits.
Yup, it's become quite a battle in Sacramento.
Elected officials from both political parties on Wednesday spoke out against an effort by Democratic state leaders that attempts to challenge a ballot initiative to reform Proposition 47 in November. A decade ago, Proposition 47 loosened penalties around drug and theft crimes. The initiative to reinstate the consequences and prison time for thieves and fentanyl dealers has qualified for the November ballot. Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate [President] Pro Tempore Mike McGuire said this week they planned to add controversial amendments to a set of bills that mostly address organized retail theft that would repeal those proposed laws if voters approve the separate ballot initiative.
Greg Totten, a spokesman for the Californians for Safer Communities campaign, said the group has always been willing to discuss with Democratic leaders. "Legislative leadership and the governor's office have said they don't want to amend proposition 47, but the problem cannot be fixed without amending proposition 47," Totten said.
https://www.kcra.com/article/bipartisan ... t/61090036
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1246
From a column by Charlie Cook, a long time Washington political analyst who founded the Cook Political Report.
All told, Biden’s Gallup approval rating—56 percent in June of 2021—dropped to 42 percent for the month of October, a 14-point collapse in four months. That recalibration of public assessment of Biden’s performance probably was about the time that minds began to change on how Trump had done. Whenever I hear partisans complain about their side having a message problem, more often than not it is actually a substance problem. The revised view that a critical segment of voters have of Trump’s presidency may be less about Trump and more about the juxtaposition with Biden.

This race has been the most stable, least volatile presidential race in the 52 years that I have watched these contests. As this column noted last week, it is a “mature” race with extreme partisanship anchoring much of the vote. Both parties’ nominees-in-waiting have total name recognition and definition in the minds of voters, a long-held view that Trump was no Boy Scout and that Biden embarked on a more aggressive policy agenda than the mandate given to him by a narrow Electoral College win, a 50-50 Senate split, and a half-dozen-seat margin in the House. Both 2017 and 2021 proved the point that nowadays, no win is too small to declare a landslide. Voters might take a different view.
https://e.customeriomail.com/deliveries ... sl2oIAGws=

The Democratic shadow party pushed Biden into moving farther to the left than the rest of the country, without a definitive mandate.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1247
Not sure on what issues biden was pushed left. Certainly not on healthcare, certainly not on Union issues or worker’s rights, or any other issue I can think of as representative of the left. Pushing for gun bans and more restrictions on guns is not a left issue, it’s an authoritarian issue. Pushing for the military and wars is not a left issue, it’s an issue that is pushed by the military industrial complex, corporations. That’s a right wing agenda.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1250
Yup, we produce a lot of solar in CA and the whole southwest could produce even more, if we were able to store that energy. Tariffs protect a country's industrial sectors and agriculture, the EU uses tariffs to prevent a flood of Chinese and American goods. Much of US manufacturing was exported to Mexico or overseas, the pandemic was horrible but it pointed out how dependent we were on China and other countries and the world supply chain that can be disrupted very easily. Trump pushed tariffs first and Biden continued some and has pushed to reestablish key manufacturing here.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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