Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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sikacz wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 10:01 am
highdesert wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:39 am That one word has gotten the MSM frantically buzzing this morning, they're already obsessed with Trump and his NYC trial and this has given them more to buzz about. We're not Nazis Germany, presidents don't rule by decree. Meanwhile Trump keeps fundraising and dragging in more money playing the martyr.
This article briefly outlines why and how Hitler rose to power.
https://www.historyhit.com/why-was-hitl ... so-easily/
The constitution was weak and short lived. The people at the top were products of an authoritarian world view and 51 percent both left and right didn’t care for democracy. The old guard president wanted the military to be strong and in control.
So really, Germany had remained authoritarian. We always think of Hitler as seizing power, but he didn’t. President von Hindenburg was looking for a popular and authoritarian right-wing, pro-army government. And Hitler was brought in to fulfil that role in 1933.
We are not Germany and there’s a lot more democratic roots to pull up to dismantle our constitution. As others here have stated many times, our military won’t act against the constitution or the people. If that holds true there is no reason to run around with hair on fire over trump. He’s no Hitler and we are not Germany.

A lot of underlying turmoil and an unjust peace that eventually crippled the country didn’t help.
https://www.britannica.com/place/German ... nstitution
French taking over the industrial area of Germany due to its inability to pay war reparations sure didn’t help. You can fill in the dots what happens next. Germany begins to rebuild a new industrial sector and remilitarize.

Exactly, we aren't Germany that suffered a major defeat in WWI that ruined the German economy. Our Constitution is much stronger than the weak Weimar Republic's constitution and we have a long history as a strong democracy. Yes too many post WWI German field marshals and generals were used to a strong monarch leading their nation and the Kaiser's abdication left a political vacuum.

The 15 billionaires who own the US news media: Sulzberger, Bloomberg, Bezos, Murdoch, Newhouse, Cox, Hearst, Henry, Zuckerman... according to Forbes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/katevinton ... 101922660a

Most of them are neoliberals and they hire young reporters with their college degrees and it's apparent that the owners and reporters support the Democratic side of the spectrum.

And today
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. does not support a proposal for a global tax on billionaires. The idea has been floated by Brazil, which is leading the G20 group of major economies this year, and supported by ministers from other member nations, including France.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-r ... 04122.html

Biden and Trump don't want to alienate the billionaires that support them, they need their money.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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The upcoming generations after Gen X are the culture-shift away from Conservatism and right wing extremists. They can still be bamboozled by Dem-flavored Corpratists but there is a strong awareness for environmental causes as well as individual rights of freedom and identity. There is also a focus on communal action that we Gen X’ers didn’t grow up with (reading Ayn Rand and watching Gordon Gecko speeches and Miami Vice).

This election will see whether the youth care enough about their values to not just protest but actually turn out to vote in the general election.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1128
Well the wonderful part about a democracy is we can all make our own judgement as to what the benefits are and the consequences are. My judgement is to retain the bill of rights as whole as possible and retain the ability to resist oppression or just self defense. Both are more critical to me than anything negative trump could do and certainly more beneficial than anything biden is promising. I prefer to ride out a trump presidency with the bill of rights intact and resist any unjust laws the republicans try to enact. I also trust the younger generation won’t sit still and allow the republicans free rein.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1129
The things that are being said about a possible Trump Presidency now were likewise said about Bush-43's Presidency. My answer always has been that the Constitution was set up precisely for that situation. That includes the true meaning, as Frederick Douglass put it, behind the Second Amendment:

"A man's rights rest in three boxes. The ballot box, jury box and the cartridge box. Let no man be kept from the ballot box because of his color. Let no woman be kept from the ballot box because of her sex."

Remember that Bloom-boy ran for President, too, in his case as a Democrat, and he's totally an authoritarian megalomaniac. I'd actually be more afraid of a Bloom-boy Presidency than even a Trump or Bush-43 one. The Constitution was set up just for that sort of eventuality. The Founding Fathers were wise, indeed.
"SF Liberal With A Gun + Free Software Advocate"
http://www.sanfranciscoliberalwithagun.com/
http://www.liberalsguncorner.com/
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Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1130
They raided the Capitol. On his order. If you don’t agree that was our Reichstag moment or believe TOS was anything like a Bush, you have no realistic understanding of the Constitution as a flammable piece of paper and just as vulnerable to fascism and tyranny.
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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CowboyT wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:27 pm Remember that Bloom-boy ran for President, too, in his case as a Democrat, and he's totally an authoritarian megalomaniac. I'd actually be more afraid of a Bloom-boy Presidency than even a Trump or Bush-43 one. The Constitution was set up just for that sort of eventuality. The Founding Fathers were wise, indeed.
Yes, Democrats forget that Bloomberg ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 and his history of sexual harassment sidetracked it.
But as Bloomberg has toured the country seeking to be the Democratic pick to fight Donald Trump – and his ads have swamped the airwaves and social media – the former New York city mayor’s record on his behavior towards women, and women’s issues, has come under intense scrutiny. The picture that has emerged is an ugly one, especially in the era of #MeToo and in a Democratic party whose base is rapidly diversifying and where women’s rights are a core issue. From lewd comments in the work place, to sexual harassment, to vetoing women’s rights legislation, Bloomberg’s record could be a huge drag on his campaign – no matter how much money he spends. Michael Bloomberg has dismissed scrutiny of his past treatment of women saying those who’ve stepped forward with allegations of workplace harassment simply “didn’t like a joke I told”. But records show that concerns surrounding his comments and behavior towards women run much deeper than jokes.

For years he has battled claims that he’s called women “fat broads” and “horse-faced lesbians,” allegedly announcing within an employee’s earshot that he would like to “do that piece of meat”, according to court records and other documents. (Bloomberg has denied ever saying the word “meat”.) An aide recalled that Bloomberg often remarked “nice tits” upon seeing attractive women. In 1990 his employees put together a novelty book of quotes attributed to him, including such lines as “If women wanted to be appreciated for their brains, they’d go to the library instead of to Bloomingdale’s” and “I know for a fact that any self-respecting woman who walks past a construction site and doesn’t get a whistle will turn around and walk past again and again until she does get one”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... hite-house
Democratic presidential contender Mike Bloomberg on Friday offered to release women from three non-disclosure agreements with his media company if they wanted, a move that came two days after he was torched at a debate by Sen. Elizabeth Warren over his practice of using such deals. Bloomberg also said that in the future his company will no longer offer NDAs “to resolve claims of sexual harassment or misconduct going forward.” In a statement on his campaign website, Bloomberg said that his offer of release from NDAs is for women who had complained “about comments they said I had made.”

His statement did not address the question of why he is not offering to release any other person who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Bloomberg LP from such a pact. “I want my company to be a model for women seeking opportunity and support in their careers,” Bloomberg said. The former New York mayor was blasted by the Massachusetts Democrat Warren at Wednesday presidential debate in Las Vegas for his use of NDAs, his refusal to release women from them and his alleged history of crude comments about women
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/bloombe ... ments.html

Bloomberg just didn't have an "Access Hollywood" tape like Trump did, but like Trump he was known for sexual harassment and NDAs.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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sikacz wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 8:38 am I’d say trump is a loud mouth dictator wannabe. Our constitution and institutions will prevent it.
How would the Constitution prevent anything? Which institutions would prevent it and what would be their methods.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1134
The latest New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll shook Democrats.
With the usual stipulations about polls six months out, Biden is behind,” said Jim Kessler, co-founder of the left-leaning think tank Third Way. “They need to be in a better place on the border, crime and inflation to win. They have a story to tell on each and further actions they can take, but they need to get cracking.”

CNN’s Harry Enten, who specializes in polling data, said Monday that The New York Times numbers out of the Sun Belt states of Nevada and Arizona were “an absolute disaster.” The numbers out of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were more workable for the Biden campaign, Enten said, signaling that a sweep of the Great Lakes states and the traditional “blue wall” is Biden’s likeliest path to victory. “It’s advantage Donald Trump, but he’s not over the 270 mark just yet,” Enten said.
Biden won all six states in 2020, though his margins in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin were particularly narrow, and all six are expected to be competitive in November. But battleground polling has for months shown Trump leading Biden, despite his numerous legal cases and strong economic data touted by the White House. “What’s so impressive about this is polls have historically underestimated Trump’s support, not overestimated Trump’s support,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist, who noted Trump was at 49 percent or 50 percent support in four of the states where he’s leading. “And then if you couple this poll with nearly 100,000 people showing up in Arctic blue New Jersey, this is a disaster for Biden,” he added, referring to a rally Trump held in Wildwood, N.J., over the weekend.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -michigan/

Yes Biden is dragging his feet on the southern border, inflation and crime, top issues for voters and it shows in polling. It's another case of the Biden administrations indecisiveness. Chuck Schumer is trying to resurrect the compromise border bill but that ship has sailed, it's too late. Trump was underestimated in 2016 polling which is why his election was a shock to Democrats and pollsters.

U.S. President Joe Biden's public approval rating this month fell to its lowest level in almost two years, tying the lowest reading of his presidency in a warning sign for his reelection effort, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

The four-day poll, which closed on Monday, showed just 36% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance as president, down from 38% in April. It was a return to the lowest approval rating of his presidency, last seen in July 2022. While this month's drop was within the poll's 3 percentage point margin of error, it could bode poorly for Biden as he faces off with Republican Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 presidential election.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens ... 024-05-21/

Remember no US president in modern times has won reelection with less than 50% approval.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1140
One side will lose on November 5th, though it may not be clear which side until 36 days after the election, just before the Electoral College meets to cast their votes. During those 36 days there will be election challenges, recounts and of course court challenges, all of which have to be resolved by December 11th. Hopefully this doesn't end up in the US House or at SCOTUS.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

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CowboyT wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 10:26 pm
sig230 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 6:46 pm How would the Constitution prevent anything? Which institutions would prevent it and what would be their methods.
To answer that question, I suggest you read, or re-read, the Constitution. It's all spelled out in there, and beautifully so.
I have read and re-red the US Constitution and can find no explanation of how it can in anyway force compliance. If you know where such passages might be please provide the text.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1144
CDFingers wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 9:45 am We get the .gov we choose to obey.

CDF
And all of the evidence shows that while the people in the US claim to be living under "The Rule of Law" in reality what is seen is we live under the rule of law as long as the law does not inconvenience us or keep us from doing what we want. They ignore the fact that even at only 30 miles an hour you are traveling 44 feet a second so being able to stop withing 10 or 12 feet jess ain't gonna happen.

Driver speed, run red lights, talk on the phone and read texts while driving, do not use turn signals and often ignore stop signs. People cross the street wherever they want rather at the cross walks. Worst of all they regularly ignore the laws of physics and tailgate.

At lunch the other day a couple got up from their table and immediately a second couple sat down; and swept the change left on the table into their pockets.

We see it with cities ignoring immigration or gun laws or states refusing to remove barbed wire or "sovereign citizen' movements or Justices accepting loans from people with cases pending.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1145
A new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of the 7 swing/battleground states.

Arizona - Trump 49% / Biden 44%
Georgia - Trump 47% / Biden 44%
Michigan - Biden 46% / Trump 45%
Nevada - Trump 47% / Biden 47%
North Carolina - Trump 49% / Biden 42%
Pennsylvania - Trump 48% / Biden 46%
Wisconsin - Trump 47% / Biden 46%


In national polls, Trump leads by 0.9% so it's a dead heat. On this day May 23, 2020 Biden was ahead +5.5 points and on this day May 23, 2016 Trump was ahead by +0.2 points.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1146
sig230 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 8:47 am
CowboyT wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 10:26 pm
sig230 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 6:46 pm How would the Constitution prevent anything? Which institutions would prevent it and what would be their methods.
To answer that question, I suggest you read, or re-read, the Constitution. It's all spelled out in there, and beautifully so.
I have read and re-red the US Constitution and can find no explanation of how it can in anyway force compliance. If you know where such passages might be please provide the text.
I don't know that I can satisfy your request, but I'll do what I can. I'd thus ask you to state your *specific* concern, and please do be specific.

Are you, by any chance, an attorney or have any other legal training? Trying to gauge my audience here.
"SF Liberal With A Gun + Free Software Advocate"
http://www.sanfranciscoliberalwithagun.com/
http://www.liberalsguncorner.com/
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Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1147
CowboyT wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:34 am
sig230 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 8:47 am
CowboyT wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 10:26 pm
sig230 wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 6:46 pm How would the Constitution prevent anything? Which institutions would prevent it and what would be their methods.
To answer that question, I suggest you read, or re-read, the Constitution. It's all spelled out in there, and beautifully so.
I have read and re-red the US Constitution and can find no explanation of how it can in anyway force compliance. If you know where such passages might be please provide the text.
I don't know that I can satisfy your request, but I'll do what I can. I'd thus ask you to state your *specific* concern, and please do be specific.

Are you, by any chance, an attorney or have any other legal training? Trying to gauge my audience here.
Not an attorney just someone actually looking at the evidence and reality.

Can't wait though to see your evidence.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1148
sig230 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:36 am
CowboyT wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 11:34 am
sig230 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 8:47 am
CowboyT wrote: Wed May 22, 2024 10:26 pm

To answer that question, I suggest you read, or re-read, the Constitution. It's all spelled out in there, and beautifully so.
I have read and re-red the US Constitution and can find no explanation of how it can in anyway force compliance. If you know where such passages might be please provide the text.
I don't know that I can satisfy your request, but I'll do what I can. I'd thus ask you to state your *specific* concern, and please do be specific.

Are you, by any chance, an attorney or have any other legal training? Trying to gauge my audience here.
Not an attorney just someone actually looking at the evidence and reality.

Can't wait though to see your evidence.
Again, I'll need to know your specific concern(s) to even attempt to do so. And even then, again, I don't know if I'll be able to satisfy you.

Without some much greater specificity, I'd still have to answer, "The Constitution of the United States".
"SF Liberal With A Gun + Free Software Advocate"
http://www.sanfranciscoliberalwithagun.com/
http://www.liberalsguncorner.com/
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Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1149
My concern is that no one has shownn how the Constitution can force behavior when the individual or city or county or state or President decides to ignore it.

The Constitution has NO enforcement arm, Congress has no enforcement arm, the Courts have no enforcement arm when the bodies that actually do have enforcement capabilities (LE & Military) decide not to enforce.

We saw an example of enforcement working when Ike and later LBJ used the power of the Executive to force compliance but even in those instances the results were nullified by the widespread creation of the Avoidance Schools under the Evangelical Christian umbrella; but what if the President chooses the opposite behavior and does nothing or uses the power to defy the Constitution?
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1150
sig230 wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 12:19 pm My concern is that no one has shownn how the Constitution can force behavior when the individual or city or county or state or President decides to ignore it.

The Constitution has NO enforcement arm, Congress has no enforcement arm, the Courts have no enforcement arm when the bodies that actually do have enforcement capabilities (LE & Military) decide not to enforce.

We saw an example of enforcement working when Ike and later LBJ used the power of the Executive to force compliance but even in those instances the results were nullified by the widespread creation of the Avoidance Schools under the Evangelical Christian umbrella; but what if the President chooses the opposite behavior and does nothing or uses the power to defy the Constitution?
This is precisely why we have the 1A backed by the 2A. It's one of the reasons I'm am so reluctant to support any erosion of 2A rights. Without access to arms at least equivalent to LEO, there is no telling where a radicalized government would go. We've had one civil war. It is very likely we'll have another just based on history of countries in general. When is an open question, as are results.

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