Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1101
Yeah: 45 is gonna get destroyed. Either he backs out of the debates and gets destroyed that way or he debates and gets destroyed because of no audience and muted microphones. Joe easily can call him on his lies and anti American ways. Moreover, 40 folks who used to work in the orange White House, including Pence, say 45 is uproariously unfit to get anywhere near the Oval Office.

Either the Repubs pick another candidate or they lose the WH, the Senate, and the House. But I predict they will stick with the orange spirochete and thereby get ejected from US Politics for several election cycles.

I'm going to enjoy watching the orange get squoze.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1102
In 2016 during the Republican primary debates he broke all the rules and browbeat his Republican opponents. He behaved like a stalker with HRC and in 2020 he tried to overtalk Biden, which the public didn't like. He'll say that CNN's rules and format favor Biden and he'll probably drop out. I heard that CNN wants the debate without an audience and Trump craves audience feedback. Trump's ahead in most of the only states in play this year, the 6 swing states.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1104
I doubt there will be a negative impact to trump if the debates never happen. The electorate is already divided and both major parties think the other party is evil. Significant number of people don’t like either party’s candidate, think both candidates are dishonest to a degree, think they won’t finish their terms and think they should both be replaced. There was some interesting graphs in another thread on this. They should have been put here.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1105
sikacz wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 2:35 am I doubt there will be a negative impact to trump if the debates never happen. The electorate is already divided and both major parties think the other party is evil. Significant number of people don’t like either party’s candidate, think both candidates are dishonest to a degree, think they won’t finish their terms and think they should both be replaced. There was some interesting graphs in another thread on this. They should have been put here.
Yes, the Democratic left obsesses about the Republican right and the Republican right obsesses about the Democratic left. The parties differ on issues but they operate in very similar ways, demonizing their opponents especially when elections are very close like this one. This is similar to the 2016 election when the Democratic campaign and HRC didn't talk about the top issues that concerned voters. Democrats have already decided that abortion and gun control are the top issues in this election which their shadow party told them, that doesn't match with polling. The orange man hasn't been in the WH for 4 years, so "Orange Man Bad" isn't working this cycle.

Most people on this forum are much farther to the left than the general population, the other half of the population doesn't think like they do. We are a center-right nation not a center-left nation, moderates and conservatives dominate not liberals. As Nate Silver said,
Your friends are not a representative sample of public opinion.
People who live in silos hear what reinforces what they already believe.


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"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1106
I can guarantee regardless of who wins many of us won’t be happy with the issues the next administration pushes be it a Republican or Democrat administration. It’s likely going to a Republican one if nothing significant happens. My perspective is neither party would lose their base or leaned vote by replacing their candidates. They might gain from the independent sector which has significantly grown over the years. I’m pretty much more left than just off center, but the dems agenda doesn’t speak to me. The repubs certainly doesn’t.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1107
Donald Trump appeared to freeze for more than 30 seconds during a speech at the National Rifle Association’s annual meeting in Dallas, Texas.

The former president — who kept the crowd waiting for more than two hours from the scheduled time of his speech on Saturday — was praising the state of Texas before he suddenly fell silent at the lectern.

Supporters of President Joe Biden were quick to pounce on the moment given that Mr Trump, 77, frequently attacks the president, 81, for his age, claiming he is not mentally competent and is too old for office.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... reddit.com

I'm guessing we won't see this on main stream media. But we'll see how he's a friend of gun owners. I loathe corporate media.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1108
"Take the guns first and go thru due process later".....Trump is not a friend of the NRA nor gun owners. He just wants to use them by playing the NRA and its members.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxgybgEKHHI&t=36s

I am the NRA and I loathe Trump.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress. Hope is not a Plan.

I am sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1109
VodoundaVinci wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 2:33 pm "Take the guns first and go thru due process later".....Trump is not a friend of the NRA nor gun owners. He just wants to use them by playing the NRA and its members.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxgybgEKHHI&t=36s

I am the NRA and I loathe Trump.

VooDoo
Yup I don't like Trump either, but he's not campaigning on gun control or supporting all the Bloomie groups like Biden. Donald Trump is still an anti-gun New Yorker at heart, maybe living in Florida has mellowed him a bit. I didn't read that Trump promised to sign a national concealed carry reciprocity bill or remove suppressor licensing from ATF, at the NRA convention. All Trump and Abbott had to do was point out that gun rights are imperiled when Democrats are in power.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1110
highdesert wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 8:06 am
VodoundaVinci wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 2:33 pm "Take the guns first and go thru due process later".....Trump is not a friend of the NRA nor gun owners. He just wants to use them by playing the NRA and its members.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxgybgEKHHI&t=36s

I am the NRA and I loathe Trump.

VooDoo
Yup I don't like Trump either, but he's not campaigning on gun control or supporting all the Bloomie groups like Biden. Donald Trump is still an anti-gun New Yorker at heart, maybe living in Florida has mellowed him a bit. I didn't read that Trump promised to sign a national concealed carry reciprocity bill or remove suppressor licensing from ATF, at the NRA convention. All Trump and Abbott had to do was point out that gun rights are imperiled when Democrats are in power.
Yep. Taking away gun rights isn’t his agenda or priority. It is the dems and biden’s.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1111
sikacz wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 8:51 am
highdesert wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 8:06 am
VodoundaVinci wrote: Sun May 19, 2024 2:33 pm "Take the guns first and go thru due process later".....Trump is not a friend of the NRA nor gun owners. He just wants to use them by playing the NRA and its members.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxgybgEKHHI&t=36s

I am the NRA and I loathe Trump.

VooDoo
Yup I don't like Trump either, but he's not campaigning on gun control or supporting all the Bloomie groups like Biden. Donald Trump is still an anti-gun New Yorker at heart, maybe living in Florida has mellowed him a bit. I didn't read that Trump promised to sign a national concealed carry reciprocity bill or remove suppressor licensing from ATF, at the NRA convention. All Trump and Abbott had to do was point out that gun rights are imperiled when Democrats are in power.
Yep. Taking away gun rights isn’t his agenda or priority. It is the dems and biden’s.
Yes, if Biden would just STFU about guns and distance himself from the anti-gunners, he might gain some points in the polls. Big city Democratic politicians peddle the same simplistic solutions to violence that they always have, restrict or ban guns.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1113
If and when TOS is convicted in New York he will lose his right to vote until after he serves his time in incarceration. If he claims Florida resident he can't vote until the sentence is completed.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1114
The US presidency is an elected federal office and restricting voting rights for felons are state laws, two separate jurisdictions. If Trump is convicted in NYC it will immediately be appealed within NY State courts and federal courts. Alvin Bragg taking old misdemeanors and making them felonies will be one of the appeal items. There is no prohibition in the US Constitution or statue law prohibiting a felon from becoming president or vice president. Trump winning the presidency isn't dependent on his individual vote.
Former President Donald Trump wouldn't be prevented from returning to the White House even if the he gets convicted of a felony in any of his four criminal trials. But there's still a chance the presumptive Republican nominee's legal troubles could prevent him from casting a ballot for himself in the November general election. While the U.S. Constitution doesn’t explicitly bar felons from serving as president, a number of states do restrict felons’ voting rights. In Florida, where Trump lives, a felon’s right to vote is determined by the rules in the state where they received the conviction.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 381143007/

There’s nothing in the Constitution or federal law that prevents a felon from holding the nation’s highest office. While many federal employees would not be hired if they had a felony conviction on their record, the Constitution sets only a few bare-bones requirements for the chief executive. “No Person except a natural born Citizen...shall be eligible to the Office of the President,” it says. While today’s voters worry about candidates who are too old, the men who wrote the 1787 document sought to screen out those who were too young or lived abroad. A president must have “attained the age of 35 years and been 14 years a resident within the United States.” Elizabeth Wydra, president of the progressive Constitutional Accountability Center, says it is a mistake to assume the legal system will stand in Trump’s way. “Nothing prevents him from running for president and being elected, even if he is in jail at the time of the election,” she said.
Historians say the eminent figures who wrote the Constitution put their trust in electors to choose the president. They did not foresee a disreputable character ever winning the allegiance of these electors, who were typically property-owning white men like them. Alexander Hamilton, who helped devise the electoral-college system, expressed confidence that it would bring forth “characters preeminent for ability and virtue” who would win the “esteem and confidence of the whole Union.” Within a few decades, that system was gradually replaced by one in which the voters decide state-by-state on the slates of electors who are pledged to one candidate.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... conviction
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1116
sikacz wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 2:20 pm I’m pretty sure if he whined about not being able to vote his minions would make an extra effort to show up at the polls.
Yup and as usual he's fund raising off of the New York City trial telling his followers he could get life in prison if convicted. Under NY State law the max sentence is four years or he could be given probation. Trump is a typical politician, a drama queen.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1117
highdesert wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 3:00 pm
sikacz wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 2:20 pm I’m pretty sure if he whined about not being able to vote his minions would make an extra effort to show up at the polls.
Yup and as usual he's fund raising off of the New York City trial telling his followers he could get life in prison if convicted. Under NY State law the max sentence is four years or he could be given probation. Trump is a typical politician, a drama queen.
He’s milking this for all its worth. His media exposure on that silly show gave him a leg up in 2016 and this trial is giving him one now.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1118
But he can’t pass a background check for a security clearance. So we don’t have to worry about him stealing classified documents.

I’m sorry Mr. President you aren’t cleared to read or be in the room when classified information is being shared. :sarcasm:
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1119
TrueTexan wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 7:11 pm But he can’t pass a background check for a security clearance. So we don’t have to worry about him stealing classified documents.

I’m sorry Mr. President you aren’t cleared to read or be in the room when classified information is being shared. :sarcasm:
Don’t think a background check is in the constitution.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1120
Former President Donald Trump outraised President Joe Biden in April for the first time in 2024, a potential sign that Trump’s trial in New York could be giving his campaign a boost in fundraising. Biden’s political operation announced on Tuesday in a press release that the combined campaign, joint fundraising committees and the Democratic National Committee raised $51 million in April. Trump and the Republican National Committee recently announced they raised $76 million last month. The exact figures will be impossible to verify until July when the joint fundraising committees for both Biden and Trump file their quarterly financial records with the Federal Election Commission. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee had its best month of the year so far in April, bringing in about $32 million. The Democratic National Committee slightly outraised them, however, with around $35 million booked in April.

Excluding any money from the RNC or any PACs, Trump’s campaign committee reported raising $9.4 million in April. Biden’s campaign committee raised $24.2 million in the same period, according to new FEC filings released late Monday night. The success of Trump and the RNC came the same month that the former president took part in a massive fundraiser at Wall Street veteran John Paulson’s home in Florida to benefit one of his joint fundraising committees, called Trump 47. The event raised over $50 million between the Trump campaign, the RNC, his political action committee Save America, and over a dozen state parties, according to the Trump campaign and the RNC. Still, Trump’s apparent outpacing of Biden suggests that the former president’s move to try to raise money from his trial in New York could be paying off. Trump’s first day in court was April 15. Despite his legal hurdles, a growing number of wealthy donors who backed Trump’s two previous runs for the White House have recently come back into his corner.

Trump’s campaign has been fundraising during the trial with email blasts and receiving what amounts to hours of free media, as cable news channels cut in and out of live interviews with reporters outside the courthouse in Manhattan. Since April 19, Trump’s team has spent over $300,000 on Facebook ads, with many of the spots focusing on his trial and raising money for his reelection campaign. The filings also underscored the differences between how the two campaigns are being staffed and operated.Biden’s reelection campaign reported spending approximately $3 million on payroll in April, with more than 250 employees on the books, according to a Politico analysis of the raw data from thousands of line items.

Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, spent just $550,000 on payroll in April and paid around 65 employees. Biden has already built out networks of local campaign offices across major battleground states, while Trump maintains a very light footprint in most of them. Still, it’s not clear how much of a difference having staffers on the ground makes in modern presidential elections, where voters see candidates all over social media and national cable news. During Trump’s successful 2016 presidential campaign, for example, pundits on both sides of the aisle predicted that his refusal to invest in large networks of paid staffers across the country would doom his White House bid.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/2024-ca ... april.html

And as we know in 2016 Trump won over HRC in spite of her vast fund raising. The "basket of deplorables" also has money.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1121
I suppose this thread is as good as any. I wonder whether its wide publicity will move the presidential polling needle. "Unified Reich:"
NEW YORK (AP) — A video posted to Donald Trump’s account on his social media network Monday included references to a “unified Reich” among hypothetical news headlines if he wins the election in November.

The headline appears among messages flashing across the screen such as “Trump wins!!” and “Economy booms!” Other headlines appear to be references to World War I.

The word “Reich” is often largely associated with Nazi Germany’s Third Reich, though the references in the video Trump shared appear to be a reference to the formation of the modern pan-German nation, unifying smaller states into a single Reich, or empire, in 1871.

The 30-second video appeared on Trump’s account at a time when the presumptive Republican nominee for president, while seeking to portray President Joe Biden as soft on antisemitism, has himself repeatedly faced criticism for using language and rhetoric associated with Nazi Germany.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-electi ... d19e51f427

Naturally, it is being blamed on an unknown staffer.

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1122
That one word has gotten the MSM frantically buzzing this morning, they're already obsessed with Trump and his NYC trial and this has given them more to buzz about. We're not Nazis Germany, presidents don't rule by decree. Meanwhile Trump keeps fundraising and dragging in more money playing the martyr.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1123
highdesert wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:39 am That one word has gotten the MSM frantically buzzing this morning, they're already obsessed with Trump and his NYC trial and this has given them more to buzz about. We're not Nazis Germany, presidents don't rule by decree. Meanwhile Trump keeps fundraising and dragging in more money playing the martyr.
Yeah, it can't happen here in America. We have a Constitution and 200+ years of democratic process. Authoritarianism, Fascism, Autocracy and another reich can't happen here.....I been told and skooled on these subjects. It's all fine - just keep voting Democrat and it'll all be fine. IMO/YMMV.

VooDoo
Tyrants disarm the people they intend to oppress. Hope is not a Plan.

I am sworn to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1124
highdesert wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 9:39 am That one word has gotten the MSM frantically buzzing this morning, they're already obsessed with Trump and his NYC trial and this has given them more to buzz about. We're not Nazis Germany, presidents don't rule by decree. Meanwhile Trump keeps fundraising and dragging in more money playing the martyr.
This article briefly outlines why and how Hitler rose to power.
https://www.historyhit.com/why-was-hitl ... so-easily/
The constitution was weak and short lived. The people at the top were products of an authoritarian world view and 51 percent both left and right didn’t care for democracy. The old guard president wanted the military to be strong and in control.
So really, Germany had remained authoritarian. We always think of Hitler as seizing power, but he didn’t. President von Hindenburg was looking for a popular and authoritarian right-wing, pro-army government. And Hitler was brought in to fulfil that role in 1933.
We are not Germany and there’s a lot more democratic roots to pull up to dismantle our constitution. As others here have stated many times, our military won’t act against the constitution or the people. If that holds true there is no reason to run around with hair on fire over trump. He’s no Hitler and we are not Germany.

A lot of underlying turmoil and an unjust peace that eventually crippled the country didn’t help.
https://www.britannica.com/place/German ... nstitution
French taking over the industrial area of Germany due to its inability to pay war reparations sure didn’t help. You can fill in the dots what happens next. Germany begins to rebuild a new industrial sector and remilitarise.
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"Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated!" Loquacious of many. Texas Chapter Chief Cat Herder.

Re: 2024 Presidential Polling

1125
It's a choice between putting a scorpion or a ferret in your trousers.

In actual polling news:
Broad majorities of voters aren’t happy with Trump’s apparent offer of a quid pro quo to oil companies, a poll from an advocacy group has found.

Almost 6 in 10 likely voters surveyed — 58 percent — said they were “concerned” about a second Trump term after hearing about the former president’s reported offer to undo broad swaths of President Biden’s climate policies, according to polling by Data for Progress and Climate Power.

And nearly two-thirds — 61 percent — of likely voters told pollsters they “reconsider” their vote for a politician who made such an offer.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-envir ... nies-poll/

CDF
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

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