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What would be extremely healthy for the democratic process would be for both Trump and Biden to no longer be in the running when it came to the beginnings of primary voting. It would be raucous and unpredictable, as all of the different candidates and all of the newcomers who throw their hats into the ring scramble in a very short period to gain enough votes and support. It would be unlike the pre-determined slate we are all handed every year, decided on in back rooms, and the primaries and caucuses more of a publicity stunt.

Primary voting would be crucial, and your vote would count in those primaries no matter what party you were in or what state you live in. Political parties' "platforms" would have to add all manner of planks to be able for form coalitions to get their candidate nominated, just like in the olden days when you did not always know who the nominee would be until after the party convention.

Sure, it will be like that in 2028, assuming the election process still runs like it does now, but that will be much more controlled and vetted with the pre-selected winners bought and paid for well in advance. But a scramble just months before the primaries, where both front runners drop out, would completely upend that and have the chance for decent candidates from both sides and a decent president as a result.

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highdesert wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 10:31 am The assumption now is that Biden will be the Democratic nominee and Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024. The electoral map based on polling shows Trump ahead with 241 electoral votes to Biden's 193 electoral votes and 104 tossups. The pundits see it differently, with Biden at 241 electoral votes and Trump at 235 electoral votes and 62 tossups. It still comes down to the battleground states, how California and Texas vote is meaningless. Still a very long way to go to June 2024.
So a friend from South Dakota who is otherwise very rational said he'd probably vote for Trump. While I don't understand his reasoning, like California, Texas, and my own New Jersey, one more or less vote for Trump in South Dakota will have zero effect because our inane electoral college system is now totally broken.

Al Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 and lost to GWB.
Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million and lost to TOS
Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million, with the most votes in history, and BARELY squeaked to election in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA.
He may win 10 million more votes that TOS next fall and STILL lose!

In the 3 elections in the 18th century (1788, 1792, 1796) the EV mirrored the popular vote (Washington got 100% of the EVs).
In the entire 19th century the EV overruled the popular vote 3 times: 1824, 1876, and 1888.
In the entire 20th century it NEVER happened!
Less than 1/4 of the way through the 21st century it has happened twice, nearly happened a third time, and may WELL happen again, which will take us to the end of our Democratic Republic, The Great Experiment, and EVERYTHING we have claimed made our nation "exceptional".
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

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1790 US population
94.9% were rural
5.1% were urban

2020 US population
20% are rural
80% are urban

Although most existing federal definitions of “urban” and “rural” do not include a “suburban” category, data from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau (Census) confirm what researchers have long believed: most Americans live in the suburbs.
www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr-edge ... 20suburbs.

Of the 50 states, California was the most urban, with 94.2% of its population residing within urban areas. Nevada followed closely with 94.1% of its population residing in urban areas.

The states with the largest urban [and suburban] populations are:

California (37,259,490)
Texas (24,400,697)
Florida (19,714,806)
Vermont was the most rural, with 64.9% of its population residing in rural areas.

The states or territory with the largest rural populations are:

Texas (4,744,808)
North Carolina (3,474,661)
Pennsylvania (3,061,630)
Ohio (2,798,349)

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-tren ... -measures/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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jc57 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:14 pm What would be extremely healthy for the democratic process would be for both Trump and Biden to no longer be in the running when it came to the beginnings of primary voting. It would be raucous and unpredictable, as all of the different candidates and all of the newcomers who throw their hats into the ring scramble in a very short period to gain enough votes and support. It would be unlike the pre-determined slate we are all handed every year, decided on in back rooms, and the primaries and caucuses more of a publicity stunt.

Primary voting would be crucial, and your vote would count in those primaries no matter what party you were in or what state you live in. Political parties' "platforms" would have to add all manner of planks to be able for form coalitions to get their candidate nominated, just like in the olden days when you did not always know who the nominee would be until after the party convention.

Sure, it will be like that in 2028, assuming the election process still runs like it does now, but that will be much more controlled and vetted with the pre-selected winners bought and paid for well in advance. But a scramble just months before the primaries, where both front runners drop out, would completely upend that and have the chance for decent candidates from both sides and a decent president as a result.
2028 is gonna be rip roarin'. Let's hope we all make it.

CDFingers
The wheel is turning and you can't slow down. You can't let go and you can't hold on.
You can't go back and you can't stand still. If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will

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CDFingers wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 2:07 pm
jc57 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:14 pm What would be extremely healthy for the democratic process would be for both Trump and Biden to no longer be in the running when it came to the beginnings of primary voting. It would be raucous and unpredictable, as all of the different candidates and all of the newcomers who throw their hats into the ring scramble in a very short period to gain enough votes and support. It would be unlike the pre-determined slate we are all handed every year, decided on in back rooms, and the primaries and caucuses more of a publicity stunt.

Primary voting would be crucial, and your vote would count in those primaries no matter what party you were in or what state you live in. Political parties' "platforms" would have to add all manner of planks to be able for form coalitions to get their candidate nominated, just like in the olden days when you did not always know who the nominee would be until after the party convention.

Sure, it will be like that in 2028, assuming the election process still runs like it does now, but that will be much more controlled and vetted with the pre-selected winners bought and paid for well in advance. But a scramble just months before the primaries, where both front runners drop out, would completely upend that and have the chance for decent candidates from both sides and a decent president as a result.
2028 is gonna be rip roarin'. Let's hope we all make it.

CDFingers
Let's hope there is a 2028 Presidential election.
To be vintage it must be older than me!
The next gun I buy will be the next to last gun I ever buy. PROMISE!
jim

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Hope ain't enough. Thoughts and prayers only go so far. I don't like the idea of volunteering for Joe in '24 any more than most anyone else here, but I'm willing to swallow my bile and pick up the GOP primary ballot next spring just so I get to vote against ol' felony face twice. Crossover voting might be the only way to stop him at this rate.

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The 2024 presidential candidate debates are now down to 4 candidates, two white and two Indian-Americans. Trump has never participated in the debates.
The fourth Republican primary debate is scheduled for Wednesday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, just weeks before the crucial New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus. But only four candidates will show up to the face off at the University of Alabama. The Republican National Committee announced Monday that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy qualified for the debate.

To qualify, GOP candidates must have polled at least 6% in two national polls or 6% in one national poll and one poll from two separate early voting states recognized by the RNC. They must have also had a minimum of 80,000 unique donors and have signed the “Beat Biden” pledge, agreeing to support the eventual Republican 2024 nominee. The fourth debate marks a smaller crowd, and some familiar faces missing on stage include South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Scott, who participated in the third GOP debate last month, dropped out of the presidential race shortly after the event. Burgum, who participated in the first two GOP debates suspended his campaign Monday. Hutchinson, who only qualified for the first event, did not make the stage. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump said he’d skip the debates altogether, citing his large lead in national and state polls. The former president has also said he wouldn’t sign the “Beat Biden” pledge to support any GOP nominee, even if it isn't him.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 752877007/


Meanwhile in the race to the Republican presidential nomination, Trump's polling numbers leave the 4 other candidates in the dust.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7548.html

Biden and Trump are still neck and neck in the polling averages, 2.0 spread is still within every polls margin of error. Trump isn't universally popular among Republicans and Independents. Biden as the incumbent is juggling a lot of real crises, including the Israel-Hamas War which has divided Democrats and Democratic politicians across the US.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... html#polls
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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Split Ticket has a bunch of interesting takes on electoral stuff, but this one deserves attention. There are serious statistical issues with over-interpreting crosstabs - how many Black Catholic trans voters have swung to the GOP in the last year, really? But every problem can be solved through aggregation, right?
https://split-ticket.org/2023/12/04/wha ... bout-2024/

On the one hand, the new, reactionary GOP seems to be polling better with young Black men than ever before, and there may be something similar going on with Latinos. But on the bright side, the (D) share for the Black vote is historically underestimated by polling. Turnout remains a critical concern. The Young are absolutely fed up with Biden and unenthusiastic about voting in 2024, damn the torpedoes, but the Old are tilting left, and we do turn out. That's showing up in rural crosstabs swinging to the left as well. That could be a very big deal in the Congressional races.

One of the things ST has found post-Dobbs is that abortion swings both ways - it's working out for Dems in more secular, urban settings, but the rural, religious liberal vote is putting opposition to abortion ahead of literally everything else that "pro life" means, intensifying the rural / urban divide.
https://split-ticket.org/2023/11/25/the ... bs-effect/

Polling has gotten better since 2016, but the test of polling is election data, and so far the data seems to say that Karl Rove was right - it's all about the turnout, baby.

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Good article wings, I forgot about Split Ticket. A few of Carlson's comments that I found interesting:
By design, breaking out survey results into subgroups results in smaller sample sizes, and thus larger margins of sampling error.
Crosstabs from individual polls — which as a reminder, are snapshots in time, and are not necessarily predictive this far out from the election — are better signals of directional insights into subgroups’ vote preferences.
Disengaged voters using their responses to these polls to express their frustration with Biden, the incumbent, rather than thinking about the 2024 election as a binary choice this far out from the election.
Some pollsters group/define young voters as age 18–29 and some as age 18–34. This may seem like a trivial difference, but the polling margins are, surprisingly, drastically different for these two groups.
A political poll has a short shelf life and has to be aggregated to be put into perspective. I like his analysis. A major swing group are suburban voters which in his Nov 2023 analysis shows Democratic - 45.5% and Republican - 44.0%. Suburban voters are a huge factor.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =277985286

Rove is right, it's all about turn out. It gets complicated now with early voting spread over a number of days and more and more mail voting, not sure campaigns are on top of it.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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At a campaign fund-raiser in the Boston area on Tuesday, Mr. Biden said that “if Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running,” suggesting just how much his predecessor motivated his decision to run again at age 81.
While polls show most Democrats would rather have someone else represent the party in next year’s election, Mr. Biden’s case for another nomination has been bolstered by the reality that there is no obvious replacement who inspires widespread confidence among Democrats that they could beat Mr. Trump.

Mr. Biden faces only long-shot challengers in the Democratic primaries in the form of Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota and Marianne Williamson, the author. But several other ambitious Democrats are waiting in the wings in case for some reason Mr. Biden changes course and drops out, including Vice President Kamala Harris and Govs. Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/us/p ... ction.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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YankeeTarheel wrote: Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:00 pm
Wino wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:07 pm Anyone not republican is better than turd.


Including Bob Menendez
Better choice of the two crooks, than TOS
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

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It's still a year, or 11 months.

Things do look fairly settled now but anything could happen.

What if Trump wins the popular vote as well as the electoral college?

The Democratic Party has been horrible of late, and there are only two possible options in voting. Look at the current thing, aid to Ukraine, Israel, for immigration. We could throw up our hands and give the Republicans everything they want, say they forced us, and gain a few million votes. Civiqs polling over at DK has deportation almost reaching equity with give them citizenship. Deportation of everyone currently here illegally. I've never seen a more loser issue. Makes the Rs on abortion look less bad.

On the face of it the worst Democrat running would be a far more competent, sane, president than Trump, it shouldn't be close. But it is, Trump is ahead, because we suck on some real important issues, like kitchen table economics. It's been going on since Reagan but Dems are supposed to be in our corner.

The working class outnumbers the college voter almost two to one. https://www.dropbox.com/s/re0gtn1o57fzw ... .xlsx?dl=0
Hispanics have drifted R to the point where very soon we might well lose the working class Hispanic vote. People think we are the ones who are nuts. Have you followed all that "death to the Jews" BS?

I read polls a lot. Last week there was a Yougov/economist poll, they asked people is they thought the Holocaust was a myth. 20% of 18 to 29 year olds say ya. We're counting on them? 14% of urban vs 3% of rural, 10% of Democrats vs 6% of Republicans. I think half of it is that Jewish people are white, and it's super cool to hate on white people, other white people that is, ones who aren't gay, or women, or whatever, those other white people, the bad ones. White people are 72% of voters, count Hispanic people and you're at 80% on presidential election years.

Look at guns. Everyone supports the second amendment here to some extent or another. Does that make us public enemy #1? We're too busy kicking people out of the party to win elections. End of rant.

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tagsoup wrote: Sat Dec 09, 2023 4:19 pm I read polls a lot. Last week there was a Yougov/economist poll, they asked people is they thought the Holocaust was a myth. 20% of 18 to 29 year olds say ya. We're counting on them?

I saw that poll too and I agree it's scary.

One in five young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth
On December 5th, for over five hours, lawmakers grilled the presidents of elite universities in a congressional hearing about antisemitism on college campuses. In one of the testiest exchanges a Republican congresswoman, Elise Stefanik, asked whether “calling for the genocide of Jews” violates university rules. It is “context-dependent”, replied Liz Magill, the president of the University of Pennsylvania. Clips of the exchange went viral on X, formerly Twitter. Yad Vashem, a Holocaust museum and research centre, issued a condemnation and stressed the importance of “raising awareness about the history of antisemitism and the Holocaust”.

A new poll from YouGov/The Economist suggests that Yad Vashem has its work cut out. Young Americans—or at least the subset of them who take part in surveys—appear to be remarkably ignorant about one of modern history’s greatest crimes. Some 20% of respondents aged 18-29 think that the Holocaust is a myth, compared with 8% of those aged 30-44 (see chart). An additional 30% of young Americans said they do not know whether the Holocaust is a myth. Many respondents espouse the canard that Jews wield too much power in America: young people are nearly five times more likely to think this than are those aged 65 and older (28% versus 6%).

Now for the harder part: why do some young Americans embrace such views? Perhaps surprisingly, education levels do not appear to be the culprit. In our poll, the proportion of respondents who believe that the Holocaust is a myth is similar across all levels of education.

Social media might play a role. According to a 2022 survey from the Pew Research Centre, Americans under 30 are about as likely to trust information on social media as they are to trust national news organisations. More recently Pew found that 32% of those aged 18-29 get their news from TikTok. Social-media sites are rife with conspiracy theories, and research has found strong associations between rates of social-media use and beliefs in such theories. In one recent survey by Generation Lab, a data-intelligence company, young adults who used TikTok were more likely to hold antisemitic beliefs.

Though young Americans’ views are most stark, antisemitism is rearing its head in other demographic groups. The same YouGov/The Economist poll found that 27% of black respondents and 19% of Hispanics believe that Jews have too much power in America, compared with 13% of white respondents who say so. Whatever the reasons, the polling is alarming.
https://www.economist.com/united-states ... -is-a-myth


Image
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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I would bet the same group would think the movies, Song of the South and Gone With the Wind, are correct representations of slavery and black people at that time.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

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I detest GWTW--it's a total lie, and an attempt to re-write history. Mary Chesnut wrote how even the richest plantation owners' wives were caught in a system where their husbands CLEARLY cheated on them by raping slave women, and she would have to see slaves that clearly were her husband's children. There was a long legal battle between Thomas Jefferson's White and Black descendants (through Sally Hemmings) that was quite a feud.

What is known to actual historians, but doesn't make it into the public discussion, is that the more Abolition grew and strengthened, the more restrictive the laws on what slaves could and couldn't do were enacted in the South. In other cultures, an educated slave able to read and write was a valued asset, but in the TRULY "peculiar institution" it was made a crime. So the myth that the South would have freed their slaves without force is nonsense. They were moving just the opposite way, and following the outlawing of Slavery, the South imposed de facto slavery through the share-cropping system, and the violent enforcement of NO rights via the KKK.

This was widespread until the 1960's and continued on in all kinds of places for decades. Because rich people and corporations HATE paying for the market price for Labor, their most important input, but will pay market prices for all their other inputs.
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

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featureless wrote: Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:12 pm That is terrifying and fucking embarrassing.

We are so fucked as a species.
Yes and the problem isn't limited to K-12 grades. Last week the presidents of MIT, UPenn and Harvard were subpoenaed to testify before the US House Education and Workforce Committee.
The leaders of Harvard, M.I.T. and Penn appeared to evade questions about whether students should be disciplined if they call for the genocide of Jews.
These are the heads of three of America's top universities, Harvard has an endowment of $53 billion and MIT and UPenn have endowments of over $20 billion.

I expect that these three presidents in their ivory towers dismissed the Republican House hearings as politics, that would only be watched by MAGA types. They were totally wrong, many Democrats watched it including Democratic and Republican members of Congress. The three presidents gave legalistic answers, that advocating genocide of Jews depended on "context and actions". They missed the moral question that advocating the genocide of any group should subject students to disciplinary action, that it violates basic human rights. As one reporter noted, new students at Harvard are told that "fat shaming" will subject them to disciplinary action, advocating genocide is far more dangerous. Three supposedly educated administrators totally missed the point.
“It’s unbelievable that this needs to be said: Calls for genocide are monstrous and antithetical to everything we represent as a country,” said a White House spokesman, Andrew Bates.

Josh Shapiro, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania, said he found the responses by Elizabeth Magill, Penn’s president, “unacceptable.” Even the liberal academic Laurence Tribe found himself agreeing with Representative Elise Stefanik, Republican of New York, who sharply questioned Harvard’s president, Claudine Gay. “I’m no fan of @RepStefanik but I’m with her here,” the Harvard law professor wrote on the social media site X. “Claudine Gay’s hesitant, formulaic, and bizarrely evasive answers were deeply troubling to me and many of my colleagues, students, and friends.” “It should not be hard to condemn genocide, genocide against Jews, genocide against anyone else,” Governor Shapiro said on Wednesday in a meeting with reporters. “I’ve said many times, leaders have a responsibility to speak and act with moral clarity, and Liz Magill failed to meet that simple test.” “There should be no nuance to that — she needed to give a one-word answer,” he added.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/us/h ... itism.html

Realizing how insensitive their answers were, Liz Magill of UPenn and Claudine Gay of Harvard tried to do damage control when they returned home, but it was too late. UPenn president Liz Magill resigned yesterday as did Scott Bok, the chair of the UPenn trustees.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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New Reuters-Ipsos poll
A majority of Americans agree with President Joe Biden on issues including abortion rights, capping insulin prices and hiking taxes on billionaires, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, but his campaign faces a tough task in getting angry voters to care. The 81-year-old Democrat’s prospects for re-election have been dragged down by voters’ worries about the state of the economy, concerns about Biden's age and a general sense that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Benefiting from that unease has been Biden's likely Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, 77, who has a slight lead over Biden nationally in a head-to-head matchup ahead of the Nov. 5, 2024, election. Biden’s biggest challenge may be overcoming what the poll, concluded on Monday, showed to be the deep mistrust many voters appear to feel toward their political opponents or even politics in general.

Reuters/Ipsos presented respondents with a line from a recent Trump speech that there are "communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical-left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country - that lie and steal and cheat on elections" -- without first telling them who said it. Half of respondents said they agreed with that sentiment, including 71% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats. The poll then asked respondents if they knew that the line was said by Trump. Among respondents who were aware, 57% agreed, including 84% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats. Rage and grievance are a key driver of Trump’s campaign. A lasting challenge for Biden will be to penetrate this cloud of anger by harnessing the relative popularity of his agenda. Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist who worked for the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, said the Biden campaign needs to hope that the mood of the electorate shifts to the point where more voters are open to his message. "There is no way you can reach people when they are frustrated. You have to wait for them to dial it down," Ceraso said. "Then you hope you can find the thing that moves the voter back into your column." There remain plenty of persuadable voters: While the margin between Trump and Biden is small, a quarter of respondents in the poll picked neither candidate, and 15% said they hadn't made up their mind or might not vote.
Trump’s campaign also has an opportunity to connect with undecided voters on his "America First" agenda, which has harnessed dissatisfaction over how the U.S. economy has faired in global trade and decades of military interventions. Some 37% of respondents favored Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all imports - significantly higher than the 24% who said they oppose the idea. An even larger share of respondents, 39%, weren't sure where they stood on the issue. While U.S. public support skews in favor of financial and military aide for Ukraine in its war against Russia, Republicans and independents lean toward Trump's skepticism over arming Ukraine. The new Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 38% of independents were against Ukraine aid, with 27% in favor and 35% unsure. A two-thirds majority, including similar shares of Republicans and Democrats, opposed Trump's proposal to impose the death penalty on drug dealers. There was also little support for Trump's musings about leaving the NATO alliance, with just 17% of respondents supporting the idea. Just 29% supported a Trump proposal to cease granting U.S. citizenship to all people born in the U.S. regardless of the legal status of their parents. The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, surveying 4,411 adults nationwide between Dec. 5 and Dec. 11. It had a credibility interval, a margin of precision, of about 2 percentage points.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens ... 023-12-13/

The poll also asked about an assault weapons ban (AWB),
A majority of respondents, 55%, backed Biden's call to ban assault rifles. A third of Republicans and about half of independents said the U.S. should ban assault rifles.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens ... 023-12-13/

10-15% in many polls this far from the election tend to be undecided voters who can swing either way.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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sikacz wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2023 10:20 am 55 percent don’t know what an “AWB” would mean. They’ve bought the biden dem bloomie BS.
I agree, to them AWs sound "evil" and "dangerous" so they want to ban them. To hell with the stats that most gun violence involves handguns and most gun deaths are suicides. Democrats ignore evidence as much as Republicans.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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