Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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Llew wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:14 am Tangential, but I'm more concerned what we'll do if the PRC attempts to take Taiwan by force, given our longstanding commitments with (and bases in) the ROC.

Yes, the PRC has the largest navy in the world.
A growing chorus of officials and experts in the United States has been raising alarm about the risk of a Chinese attack against Taiwan. Adm. Philip S. Davidson, the United States Indo-Pacific commander, recently handicapped the threat of a Chinese assault on Taiwan as "manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years." China is preparing to invade and unify Taiwan by force, the thinking goes, as soon as it gains the capabilities to do so.
China is marshaling its full range of capabilities to intensify pressure on Taiwan below the threshold of conflict. People's Liberation Army forces now operate all around Taiwan. They also have been conducting highly publicized amphibious assault exercises and air penetrations of Taiwan's air defense identification zone at the highest frequency in nearly 25 years.

Contributing to Beijing's unfriendly treatment of Taiwan was its perception that the Trump administration showed stronger support for the island's government, thus reducing any incentive that Taipei had to submit to its demands. Trump officials took initiatives mainly in the diplomatic and security realms, and they did buoy Taiwan's confidence. The Biden administration has shown broad continuity in support for Taiwan during its first months.
https://www.npr.org/2021/04/08/98452452 ... ver-taiwan

The PRC's brutal suppression of rights in Hong Kong in violation of their treaty with Britain, is an example to the world that they can't be trusted. I expect the Biden administration will enhance relations with Taiwan short of full diplomatic relations. If Taiwan abandoned the fiction of being the ROC long ago, it could have declared itself an independent nation and established diplomatic relations.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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The PRC does have the largest navy in the world, but they're still WELL out-classed by the US navy. Chinese destroyers have some technical advantages over US, and could spell trouble for US destroyers in a fair fight...but we don't fight fair. As large as the Chinese navy is, they're not much of a blue water navy, and they're inexperienced. What's more, they have NO answer to our stealth aircraft. Nothing kills ship quite like aircraft.

As for Taiwan, it would be foolish for the US to try to fight China over Taiwan... As great as our Navy is, it is very unlikely we're going to beat China that close to China... When it comes to logistics, China is holding all the cards in that arena.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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highdesert wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:11 am
Shades of WWII, when Hitler used the protection of the Sudeten Germans who lived in western Czechoslovakia, as a pretext to invade that country.
Amazingly enough, Hitler seems to have won the WWII in the east, as Putin is a Nazi through and through, not a commie.

One thing the EU should do is wean themselves from Russian NG (Natural Gas,). As long as Hitler, whoops, I mean Putin owns the EU's energy supply via the coming Nord Stream then the EU won't do anything to stop Russia in Ukraine or elsewhere. Who's next after Ukraine, the Baltics, then who?

That said, there's little that can de done on Russia's border without going nuclear, which is a BAD THING!

Putin, like Hitler before him in post WWI Germany, has made no secret of his desire to rebuild the Soviet Union to it's former glory.

Strategic Biz Dev Alert: The US should replace Russia as the EU's NG supplier, and NG export infrastructure should be in any coming infrastructure bill!

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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featureless wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:28 pm China and Russia are both worrying at the moment. If one wanted to take advantage of the warming weather, Covid chaos as well as transition of power in the US, now seems like an opportune time.
Coordinating a war is pretty dicey. World backlash would be swift, and when was the last time America was invited to a war and we declined?

Individual, or coordinated attacks on Ukraine and/or Taiwan would really paint Biden into a corner. The public seems to think US military power is omnipotent, and the Republicans will demand some kind of military response. Mostly because they know for a fact a military response would only make matters worse; which further paints Biden into a corner. Can Biden convince Americans its a war we can't win? He risks looking weak, and American's don't like weakness...you know...'Merica!!

An invasion of either will spell the end of Biden (best case scenario), or we enter another war we can never win...or two.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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DJD100 wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:02 pmStrategic Biz Dev Alert: The US should replace Russia as the EU's NG supplier, and NG export infrastructure should be in any coming infrastructure bill!
The "Value Proposition" the Russians are making is just far more attractive than what the US is offering. So much so Germany is willing to risk Russia doing things they have no expertise in (like ocean pipelines)... That ought to tell you how much money is at stake.

Russia is out-playing the US in business and politics. Simply put, if we're going to remain in control in Europe (security wise), we need to bring more to the table. Because Russia is selling arms and energy to NATO members...That's a problem.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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FrontSight wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:14 pm
DJD100 wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:02 pmStrategic Biz Dev Alert: The US should replace Russia as the EU's NG supplier, and NG export infrastructure should be in any coming infrastructure bill!
The "Value Proposition" the Russians are making is just far more attractive than what the US is offering. So much so Germany is willing to risk Russia doing things they have no expertise in (like ocean pipelines)... That ought to tell you how much money is at stake.

Russia is out-playing the US in business and politics. Simply put, if we're going to remain in control in Europe (security wise), we need to bring more to the table. Because Russia is selling arms and energy to NATO members...That's a problem.
Sadly, all true.

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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FrontSight wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:18 pm The PRC does have the largest navy in the world, but they're still WELL out-classed by the US navy. Chinese destroyers have some technical advantages over US, and could spell trouble for US destroyers in a fair fight...but we don't fight fair. As large as the Chinese navy is, they're not much of a blue water navy, and they're inexperienced. What's more, they have NO answer to our stealth aircraft. Nothing kills ship quite like aircraft.
Well, there are submarines. We do have a pretty primo force on that front, with a lot more experience than any other navy in the world. Including the Russkies, apologies to Tom Clancy. Crossing the Taiwan Strait for an amphibious landing would be a feat to put D-Day to shame. It would require total air superiority to protect the troop transports - in all fairness, nothing kills submarines quite like aircraft.

I don't think China has the experience with modern aerial combat, air-to-ground combat, or or anti-aircraft operations to be certain of success. Russia has amazing experience in asymmetric and unconventional warfare, but nobody can equal the US for experience in conventional operations over the past two decades of constant warfare. A failed amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be the end of the current leadership.

I'd worry more about coordination, the Ukraine / Taiwan scenario simultaneously. The win-two-wars doctrine has been a little strained of late. But man, Afghanistan would make an amazing staging point for counter-operations across Asia. Don't discount the EU or India. India in particular is itching to teach China some lessons.

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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FrontSight wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:18 pm The PRC does have the largest navy in the world, but they're still WELL out-classed by the US navy. Chinese destroyers have some technical advantages over US, and could spell trouble for US destroyers in a fair fight...but we don't fight fair. As large as the Chinese navy is, they're not much of a blue water navy, and they're inexperienced. What's more, they have NO answer to our stealth aircraft. Nothing kills ship quite like aircraft.

As for Taiwan, it would be foolish for the US to try to fight China over Taiwan... As great as our Navy is, it is very unlikely we're going to beat China that close to China... When it comes to logistics, China is holding all the cards in that arena.

I agree our navy has a lot more experience, than the PLA's navy. Yes, fighting a conventional war with China over Taiwan would be difficult because of the island's proximity to China, a bit like China sending waves of troops across the border to fight in the Korean War.

For too long the US didn't want to offend China, one good thing from TFG is we're no longer afraid of offending them. One report stated Biden talked with Boris Johnson about creating a program like China's Belt and Road Initiative to invest in under developed countries. And while the big power conflicts continue, China funds propaganda organizations in the US and Chinese espionage continues targeting US industry and universities.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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One of the problems have with China is so much of our technology relies on the Chinese manufacturing and export. We exported our technology and the manufacturing to them to boost corporate profits. Just look at how may products we use daily that are manufactured ether whole or have critical parts made solely in China.

China is fast overtaking the US as the manufacturing giant. They play the long game and look for long range goals. Whereas our corporations and government plays for short term profits and goals.

As for Russia the earlier post about Putin wanting to resurrect the old USSR is correct. The former KGB Colonel is still out for revenge against the US and the Western Alliance.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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TrueTexan wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:48 am One of the problems have with China is so much of our technology relies on the Chinese manufacturing and export. We exported our technology and the manufacturing to them to boost corporate profits. Just look at how may products we use daily that are manufactured ether whole or have critical parts made solely in China.

China is fast overtaking the US as the manufacturing giant. They play the long game and look for long range goals. Whereas our corporations and government plays for short term profits and goals.

As for Russia the earlier post about Putin wanting to resurrect the old USSR is correct. The former KGB Colonel is still out for revenge against the US and the Western Alliance.
Sadly, all true...

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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TrueTexan wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:48 am One of the problems have with China is so much of our technology relies on the Chinese manufacturing and export. We exported our technology and the manufacturing to them to boost corporate profits. Just look at how may products we use daily that are manufactured ether whole or have critical parts made solely in China.

China is fast overtaking the US as the manufacturing giant. They play the long game and look for long range goals. Whereas our corporations and government plays for short term profits and goals.

As for Russia the earlier post about Putin wanting to resurrect the old USSR is correct. The former KGB Colonel is still out for revenge against the US and the Western Alliance.

I agree TT, western business salivated about profits when China opened to the world. China required them to bring western technology when they came which businesses did. Business will always look for cheap labor and US manufacturing went overseas, a lot of it to China. Most of the world's mobile phones come from China even America's iPhone is mostly assembled at Foxconn, Shenzhen, China. I'm hoping that Biden's infrastructure initiative is just the start of more programs to return manufacturing to the US. And to stay competitive China has expanded their industrial espionage instead of building their own R&D.

The FBI director warned last year.
The greatest long-term threat to our nation’s information and intellectual property, and to our economic vitality, is the counterintelligence and economic espionage threat from China. It’s a threat to our economic security—and by extension, to our national security.
In 2017, the Chinese military conspired to hack Equifax and made off with the sensitive personal information of 150 million Americans—we’re talking nearly half of the American population and most American adults—and as I’ll discuss in a few moments, this was hardly a standalone incident. Our data isn’t the only thing at stake here—so are our health, our livelihoods, and our security.

We’ve now reached the point where the FBI is opening a new China-related counterintelligence case about every 10 hours. Of the nearly 5,000 active FBI counterintelligence cases currently underway across the country, almost half are related to China. And at this very moment, China is working to compromise American health care organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and academic institutions conducting essential COVID-19 research.
For generations, people have journeyed from China to the United States to secure the blessings of liberty for themselves and their families—and our society is better for their contributions. So, when I speak of the threat from China, I mean the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/speeches/the-t ... ted-states
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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sikacz wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:21 pm Solution is we start doing things again here. In a global economy there should not just be one production center, that’s dangerous. Especially if a breakdown occurs.
And the breakdown occurred during the pandemic when much of China's manufacturing was closed down as were other Asian countries. So products like N-95 masks, surgical masks and gloves and even nasal swabs for COVID testing we in short supply.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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For generations, people have journeyed from China to the United States to secure the blessings of liberty for themselves and their families—and our society is better for their contributions. So, when I speak of the threat from China, I mean the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party.
Nicely put, for the FBI.

One of the underplayed achievements of the West during the Cold War was the integrated informational, psychological, and cultural offensive against Communist dictatorship. From Radio Free Europe to Jackson Pollock, Levis to the Beatles - the idea was that in a closed society, even the smell of freedom would eventually become irresistible. It worked. They were playing 'Winds of Change' on the streets of Moscow at the end.By the time the KGB really understood how effective it was, it was too late. Other authoritarian regimes paid attention. When the FSB mafia re-established control, countermeasures were in order.

Perhaps Nixon's approach will pay off in the end, but if it does, it will depend on those primary contacts, on the people who have actually come here going home and making a collective difference. I'm not sure. Nationalism is powerful medicine. Cultures that value collective stability over individual freedom are harder to disrupt. But pervasive surveillance and a brutal security service was not enough to prop up East Germany against the example of the West.

There are reasons for the crackdown on Hong Kong, for escalation against Taiwan, for the crisis in Xinjiang. Without the cultural and language barriers, they represent the greatest ideological threats to the hegemony of the CCP.

Back to Ukraine - Putin is probing Biden's responses and commitment, not to mention BoJo's and Merkel's. He moved against Crimea and the Donbas when be became certain that Obama would not react in any meaningful way to stop him, when he was a lame duck with opposition control in Congress. He might consider moving now if he thought that the pandemic made NATO and the EU weaker, less focused - to take advantage of divided attention if China moves against Taiwan, or North Korea against the South. More likely, he'll wait until Biden is facing divided government once again. He's spent decades infiltrating western conservative movements.

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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The build-up has been impossible to ignore: thousands of Russian troops deployed towards Ukraine; US warships reportedly heading for the Black Sea and Russia's foreign ministry warning them off "for their own good".

As the hostile rhetoric and military moves around Ukraine have intensified, Western politicians have begun fearing an open invasion and urging Russia's Vladimir Putin to "de-escalate".

Russia has refused: the defence ministry this week insisted its moves were in response to "threatening" Nato exercises in Europe.

Then Mr Putin got a phone-call from the White House.
"In Putin's game of brinkmanship, Biden blinked first," argues journalist Konstantin Eggert, after Joe Biden made his first call to the Kremlin and proposed meeting Mr Putin "in the coming months".

It's just weeks after the US president agreed with an interviewer that Russia's leader was "a killer".

President Biden's new move is now a new topic of debate - disaster prevention or a mistaken concession - but in the run-up to a summit, the risk of major military action by Russia certainly fades.

"That would be really unstatesmanlike: a slap in Biden's face," Mr Eggert told the BBC. "But the fact that it was Biden who suggested they meet does give Putin the edge."

Russian state TV certainly thinks so.

Hosts and guests alike on political chat shows have been hailing Moscow's show of force, claiming their country stood up to US and Nato hostility. One commentator suggested President Biden's "nerves had failed him".

Senator Konstantin Kosachev was widely quoted arguing that the US had realised it was "impossible to achieve military superiority over Russia" and the two countries needed to return to dialogue.

Russia's recent ostentatious troop movement always looked like grandstanding by a country that's given up trying to be liked and now wants the West to fear it instead.

When Vladimir Putin sent troops and hardware into eastern Ukraine seven years ago, those were secret operations that are still denied to this day.

This time, Russia seems more intent on sending signals than soldiers.
Despite renewed talk on state TV of "fascist" Ukrainians, there's little sense that all-out war would be popular among Russians already coping with Covid, sanctions and the impact of a low oil price.

Andrei Kortunov believes the "mobilising potential" of foreign policy adventures is now "almost depleted" with people more concerned with their own problems than in the more comfortable context of 2014.

Russia's 2008 war with Georgia is a stark warning of how rapidly such a confrontation can escalate and there is always the caveat that no-one believed Vladimir Putin would dare to annex Crimea either.

But defending the Donbas would likely be a far bloodier and more dangerous operation.

Mr Putin's intentions may become clearer next week when he's due to make his annual "state of the nation" address, a podium he's often used for sabre-rattling against the West.

But the call from Joe Biden may have given him chance to pull back from this particular fight. Turkey now says the US has cancelled Mr Biden's request for two warships to pass through the Bosphorus.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56746144

Sanctions and expulsions hit today, but sanctions could have been worse and Russia will expel 10 US diplomats - tit for tat.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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wings wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:33 pm Well, there are submarines. We do have a pretty primo force on that front, with a lot more experience than any other navy in the world. Including the Russkies, apologies to Tom Clancy. Crossing the Taiwan Strait for an amphibious landing would be a feat to put D-Day to shame. It would require total air superiority to protect the troop transports - in all fairness, nothing kills submarines quite like aircraft.

I don't think China has the experience with modern aerial combat, air-to-ground combat, or or anti-aircraft operations to be certain of success. Russia has amazing experience in asymmetric and unconventional warfare, but nobody can equal the US for experience in conventional operations over the past two decades of constant warfare. A failed amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be the end of the current leadership.

I'd worry more about coordination, the Ukraine / Taiwan scenario simultaneously. The win-two-wars doctrine has been a little strained of late. But man, Afghanistan would make an amazing staging point for counter-operations across Asia. Don't discount the EU or India. India in particular is itching to teach China some lessons.
Good post...

An amphibious landing on Taiwan would be a COMPLETE FAILURE of US foreign policy and sanity. Taiwan is just too close to mainland China, and if China REALLY wanted to deny Taiwan to us, they could do it.

A coordinated attack would be the big nightmare... Diplomatically it would be very difficult to counter without massive international backlash and cooperation. You can't meet a coordinated attack with military might... The response needs to be economic...The WORLD would have to basically boycott Russia and China. Military force would just make things worse, and could easily go nuclear. Hit them in the pocketbook, because you're not going to beat either one in their backyard.
“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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World wars aren't over in weeks. We've been spoiled by the propaganda of the Gulf War, the Seven Days War. We've been in Afghanistan near 20 years. The EU could defeat Russia on its own, given sufficient time and unified leadership. With US support, it would be a foregone conclusion. The EU has thrice the population of the Russian Federation. There are reasons Putin has always - always - been terrified of NATO on his frontier.

Taiwan has over 23 million inhabitants. Nothing compared to mainland China, but - how large a force do you think it would take to capture and pacify the island? One million? Ten? D-Day took over 150,000 Allied forces across a much narrower strait, and they were the tip of a spear of two million men and women. I'm no expert, but that's still more than China's peak-strength commitment in Korea, where they shared a land border. It would not be pretty. it would not be over quickly. I sincerely doubt that the current regime in China is capable of the long-term commitment of blood it would take to seize Taiwan by main force.

The US has successfully invaded a large Pacific island nation - the Philippines - in historic times. Twice. There are undoubtedly better students of history here than I, who can expound upon those incidents in detail. My point is that China has not.

If anything, I think American interests in both cases would be best served by following the examples of past wars - stay out, until staying out is no longer an option.

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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wings wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:53 pm World wars aren't over in weeks. We've been spoiled by the propaganda of the Gulf War, the Seven Days War. We've been in Afghanistan near 20 years. The EU could defeat Russia on its own, given sufficient time and unified leadership. With US support, it would be a foregone conclusion. The EU has thrice the population of the Russian Federation. There are reasons Putin has always - always - been terrified of NATO on his frontier.

Taiwan has over 23 million inhabitants. Nothing compared to mainland China, but - how large a force do you think it would take to capture and pacify the island? One million? Ten? D-Day took over 150,000 Allied forces across a much narrower strait, and they were the tip of a spear of two million men and women. I'm no expert, but that's still more than China's peak-strength commitment in Korea, where they shared a land border. It would not be pretty. it would not be over quickly. I sincerely doubt that the current regime in China is capable of the long-term commitment of blood it would take to seize Taiwan by main force.

The US has successfully invaded a large Pacific island nation - the Philippines - in historic times. Twice. There are undoubtedly better students of history here than I, who can expound upon those incidents in detail. My point is that China has not.

If anything, I think American interests in both cases would be best served by following the examples of past wars - stay out, until staying out is no longer an option.
China doesn't have the 'tech' to successfully mount an amphibious landing large enough to then 'hold' Taiwan. They don't have the ships, the people, the air power, the navy(subs, air superiority, GCI, etc.).
OR The political will. It would be a disaster for China. Even Taiwan on it's own would bloody China's nose..with the US..it wouldn't be successful.

Re: Should the US intervene if Russia/Belarus invades Ukraine?

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F4FEver wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:02 am
wings wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:53 pm World wars aren't over in weeks. We've been spoiled by the propaganda of the Gulf War, the Seven Days War. We've been in Afghanistan near 20 years. The EU could defeat Russia on its own, given sufficient time and unified leadership. With US support, it would be a foregone conclusion. The EU has thrice the population of the Russian Federation. There are reasons Putin has always - always - been terrified of NATO on his frontier.

Taiwan has over 23 million inhabitants. Nothing compared to mainland China, but - how large a force do you think it would take to capture and pacify the island? One million? Ten? D-Day took over 150,000 Allied forces across a much narrower strait, and they were the tip of a spear of two million men and women. I'm no expert, but that's still more than China's peak-strength commitment in Korea, where they shared a land border. It would not be pretty. it would not be over quickly. I sincerely doubt that the current regime in China is capable of the long-term commitment of blood it would take to seize Taiwan by main force.

The US has successfully invaded a large Pacific island nation - the Philippines - in historic times. Twice. There are undoubtedly better students of history here than I, who can expound upon those incidents in detail. My point is that China has not.

If anything, I think American interests in both cases would be best served by following the examples of past wars - stay out, until staying out is no longer an option.
China doesn't have the 'tech' to successfully mount an amphibious landing large enough to then 'hold' Taiwan. They don't have the ships, the people, the air power, the navy(subs, air superiority, GCI, etc.).
OR The political will. It would be a disaster for China. Even Taiwan on it's own would bloody China's nose..with the US..it wouldn't be successful.

Even with the tight grip of the CCP on the PRC, a major war to take back Taiwan could destabilize the mainland. Xi and the CCP made a mess of Hong Kong the golden egg that was the economy that they copied, they killed democracy and broke their treaty with the UK. Taiwan and Singapore are seen as the new international financial hubs of Asia replacing Hong Kong and Macau that are dying under the CCP's totalitarian grip.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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