Super Tuesday

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K9s
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Super Tuesday

Post by K9s »

Over 1 million Californians voted today in early voting in the state with the largest number of delegates.

As it stands, Sanders leads in polls for CA and TX. Biden still leads in many states. Warren is still strong in many states, too.

It will be interesting to see how everything works out.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... alifornia/
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by senorgrand »

I'm guessing that many early ballots are for bernie and trump. many californians will probably wait until the week before to cast their ballots
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by K9s »

Texas starts early voting tomorrow.

I think that you are right. Many voters who have already made up their minds are early voting Sanders and Trump already. Maybe even Biden, but I doubt that is the case in California.
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Re: Super Tuesday

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Going with daughter to poll this morning so she can vote then lunch. I can't vote at poll as have mail in ballot, although I could IF I take ballot to poll and have it voided, then I could vote. I'm still up in the air on some candidates - torn on whom to get to run against Cornyn and Trump - not that my vote will matter on latter.
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Re: Super Tuesday

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Wino wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:50 am
Going with daughter to poll this morning so she can vote then lunch. I can't vote at poll as have mail in ballot, although I could IF I take ballot to poll and have it voided, then I could vote. I'm still up in the air on some candidates - torn on whom to get to run against Cornyn and Trump - not that my vote will matter on latter.
Vote with your heart in the primaries. Vote with your head in the general election.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by CDFingers »

I'll be dropping off our ballots today (Calif). Yesterday was a bit breezy so we worked in the backyard.

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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by TrueTexan »

I did my part today to try and elect those damn Libuls and get rid of the good ole boys. In some of the smaller races where I didn’t have a real good clue, like for some of the judgeships. If there was two dems running and one was female, I vote for the female.
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Re: Super Tuesday

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TrueTexan wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:32 pm
I did my part today to try and elect those damn Libuls and get rid of the good ole boys. In some of the smaller races where I didn’t have a real good clue, like for some of the judgeships. If there was two dems running and one was female, I vote for the female.
Was it crowded? Any idea about turnout?
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by Wino »

Daughter went to poll without me about 9 AM - said no one there (no Line) and was in and out in just a few. Not a good sign. Will wait couple of days to see what news says about initial early voting. My precinct usually comes in about 3rd or 4th place for number of voters. With the new poll system allowing Bexar county to vote at ANY poll, that may change. Rep/Dem use same poll you have to declare which roster you want to vote.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by highdesert »

My CA ballot arrived before I left for Oregon, thought I packed it but can't find it. I'll go to the county registrar of voters office this week and vote there.
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Re: Super Tuesday

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I wanted to ask about how long to wait for all the primary votes to be counted. I found this from 2016:

One month later, California finishes its vote count, and Clinton wins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pos ... nton-wins/
It lasted longer than the 1979 conflict between China and Vietnam, but California's slow-moving count of provisional and mail-in ballots is finally over — and as expected, Hillary Clinton won.

Wednesday night, after ballots were finally processed in San Mateo County, Clinton had won 2,745,293 votes to 2,381,714 for Bernie Sanders. The eventual margin was 363,579 votes, or 7.1 percentage points, closer than the 2008 primary between Clinton and Barack Obama.

It was closer, too, than Sanders seemed to get on election night, when a rout bigger than any poll had suggested effectively ended the Democratic primary. Since then, Sanders added 879,671 votes to his California total; Clinton added 804,713 votes. As expected, most of the outstanding ballots left on June 7 were cast for Democratic candidates, and as expected, they broke for Sanders. (For a sense of California's scale, Sanders won more votes in the long provisional/mail-in count than he won, total, in the New York primary — 820,256 votes.)

As the count dragged on, Sanders won a few counties that seemed to break the other way on election night. The last of them — and first win in the greater Bay Area — was Sonoma, where provisional ballots helped turn a narrow Clinton win into a Sanders win by more than 5,500 votes. Sonoma, the 17th-most populous county in California, was the most populous won by Sanders.

The senator did better in the congressional districts which actually decide delegate math. On election night, Sanders appeared to have carried just two of California's 53 districts; after Wednesday night, he won eight of them, including the Latino-heavy 34th district in Los Angeles, represented by key Clinton surrogate Rep. Xavier Becerra. The closest race was decided by just 67 votes in the 28th district, which covers the Los Angeles suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, and is represented by Rep. Adam Schiff.

Those victories cut into Clinton's delegate margin. On election night, the presumptive Democratic nominee appeared to net 63 delegates out of the state. The closer statewide margin and the divergent results in congressional districts cut that lead to 33 delegates — not significant enough to change the lead, but enough to send a few more Sanders supporters to California.

Also, in the end, Clinton's 2,745,293 votes set an all-time record for the California Democratic primary. Donald Trump's 1,665,126 votes were the most any Republican had won in the state's primary since the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by Wino »

Went to lunch with daughter yesterday. We drove to post office and placed my mail-in ballot in outside postal box. Didn't go in as CC'ing. I voted mostly female and youth, local, national and state. Daughter and I split vote on Cornyn challenger, but both female and ably qualified to stomp that POS.
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Re: Super Tuesday

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Had lunch with six of the millennials in my office the other day and we were talking politics (yeah, I was the old guy in his later 40s). Four are all licensed professionals, all mid to late 20s, and are either voting Warren or Sanders. No love for anybody else. A couple won't vote for pres if Bloomberg is the nominee, otherwise, they'll vote for the D candidate. Interesting sample of six.

In conversation with another outside of that group, she'll vote the more moderate but is still undecided. And another who protest voted Trump last time (couldn't stand Clinton) would actually go Biden over Trump, even though he's (the only one I know of in the office) registered Repug.

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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by senorgrand »

someone is trying to convince me to get back in the game for a race in november...it's tempting...
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by K9s »

senorgrand wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:42 pm
someone is trying to convince me to get back in the game for a race in november...it's tempting...
Challenger?
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by senorgrand »

hush-hush at this time...
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Re: Super Tuesday

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senorgrand wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:42 pm
someone is trying to convince me to get back in the game for a race in november...it's tempting...
You'll have to disavow this site and all of us to get some a that Bloomberg sugar. :D

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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by senorgrand »

seriously...
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by JaxTeller »

Caucusing on Tuesday with our local DFL group.

Primary on March 2. Hoping it is not Bernie.. but this is MN, and we pick weird people.

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Re: Super Tuesday

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JaxTeller wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:13 pm
Caucusing on Tuesday with our local DFL group.

Primary on March 2. Hoping it is not Bernie.. but this is MN, and we pick weird people.
Why not Amy K? You are in MN.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by JaxTeller »

K9s wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:27 pm
JaxTeller wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:13 pm
Caucusing on Tuesday with our local DFL group.

Primary on March 2. Hoping it is not Bernie.. but this is MN, and we pick weird people.
Why not Amy K? You are in MN.
I think it is going to be Amy or Liz.

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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by K9s »

Warren is probably more viable. I would love to see her rack up delegates for some influence later on.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by highdesert »

K9s wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:19 am
I wanted to ask about how long to wait for all the primary votes to be counted. I found this from 2016:

One month later, California finishes its vote count, and Clinton wins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pos ... nton-wins/
It lasted longer than the 1979 conflict between China and Vietnam, but California's slow-moving count of provisional and mail-in ballots is finally over — and as expected, Hillary Clinton won.

Wednesday night, after ballots were finally processed in San Mateo County, Clinton had won 2,745,293 votes to 2,381,714 for Bernie Sanders. The eventual margin was 363,579 votes, or 7.1 percentage points, closer than the 2008 primary between Clinton and Barack Obama.

It was closer, too, than Sanders seemed to get on election night, when a rout bigger than any poll had suggested effectively ended the Democratic primary. Since then, Sanders added 879,671 votes to his California total; Clinton added 804,713 votes. As expected, most of the outstanding ballots left on June 7 were cast for Democratic candidates, and as expected, they broke for Sanders. (For a sense of California's scale, Sanders won more votes in the long provisional/mail-in count than he won, total, in the New York primary — 820,256 votes.)

As the count dragged on, Sanders won a few counties that seemed to break the other way on election night. The last of them — and first win in the greater Bay Area — was Sonoma, where provisional ballots helped turn a narrow Clinton win into a Sanders win by more than 5,500 votes. Sonoma, the 17th-most populous county in California, was the most populous won by Sanders.

The senator did better in the congressional districts which actually decide delegate math. On election night, Sanders appeared to have carried just two of California's 53 districts; after Wednesday night, he won eight of them, including the Latino-heavy 34th district in Los Angeles, represented by key Clinton surrogate Rep. Xavier Becerra. The closest race was decided by just 67 votes in the 28th district, which covers the Los Angeles suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, and is represented by Rep. Adam Schiff.

Those victories cut into Clinton's delegate margin. On election night, the presumptive Democratic nominee appeared to net 63 delegates out of the state. The closer statewide margin and the divergent results in congressional districts cut that lead to 33 delegates — not significant enough to change the lead, but enough to send a few more Sanders supporters to California.

Also, in the end, Clinton's 2,745,293 votes set an all-time record for the California Democratic primary. Donald Trump's 1,665,126 votes were the most any Republican had won in the state's primary since the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain.
It's fairly common for elections offices to have at least 30 days to do counts and sometimes longer when there are recounts and then the canvassing boards certify the result. Super Tuesday is a diverse group of states, 14 in total including delegate rich CA and TX.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by K9s »

Not faulting California. Just waiting for the 24 hour news stations (and Trump) to berate them for it again.
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Re: Super Tuesday

Post by highdesert »

K9s wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:59 am
Not faulting California. Just waiting for the 24 hour news stations (and Trump) to berate them for it again.
I agree, the media including Twitter want instant results. Having worked the polls here in CA, it's a long day that starts at 6:30 am and ends around 9 or 10 pm, longer depending on how far the travel is between home and assigned polling location. Two supervisors had to take the ballot boxes to the drop off location after polls closed and sign papers and there could be lines at the drop off location.
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