House Dems just got a ‘huge insurance policy’ to help them keep their majority: elections analyst

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The Republican Party’s path to retake the majority in the House of Representatives got significantly steeper on Monday after a panel of North Carolina judges signed off on a newly redrawn district map that will be significantly more favorable toward Democrats.

Elections analyst Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report writes on Twitter that the new map means Democrats are now “virtually guaranteed” to pick up seats in North Carolina’s 2nd and 6th districts, which respectively encompass the cities of Raleigh and Greensboro.

Wasserman then calculates how these new districts will make winning back the House even more of a grind for the GOP than what they were facing before.

“This is a huge insurance policy for Speaker Pelosi/Dems’ 17-seat majority — before the 2020 election even starts,” he writes. “Technically, House Rs need to pick up 19 seats (counting Rep. Justin Amash (I)’s #MI03) to win the majority back in 2020. But this new NC map and four R retirements from majority non-white districts mean they may actually need to flip 25+ Dem seats. That’s huge for Dems.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/12/house- ... s-analyst/

I hope the Dems don't just assume they will control the house after the 2020 elections and just think they can skate by on working to maintain and grow their majority in the house.

It would be nice if they could flip some more districts blue like Hunter and Nunes in CA, King in Iowa, Jordan in Ohio, and many more.
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.-Huxley
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." ~ Louis Brandeis,

Re: House Dems just got a ‘huge insurance policy’ to help them keep their majority: elections analyst

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On the one hand, if all states had fair maps, this wouldn't even be a contest. Several of us have far more GOP reps than the votes would sustain in a fair election.

On the other hand, I don't think the House has much chance to go GOP in 2020. Right now, the real battleground is for State House and State Senate seats to control gerrymandering in 2021. Those battles are raging and the votes will count for Federal elections, too. So, I have a good feeling about the US House of Reps in 2020. No red state is taking 2020 for granted - just watch the voter turnout in 2020 for proof.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: House Dems just got a ‘huge insurance policy’ to help them keep their majority: elections analyst

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TrueTexan wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:11 pm I hope the Dems don't just assume they will control the house after the 2020 elections and just think they can skate by on working to maintain and grow their majority in the house.
It sure would be nice if they learned the lessons of 2017, 18, and 19, :thumbup: and not 1980 to 2016..... :thumbsdown:
"Even if the bee could explain to the fly why pollen is better than shit, the fly could never understand."

Re: House Dems just got a ‘huge insurance policy’ to help them keep their majority: elections analyst

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The Dems WAY overperformed in 2018. 40 seats was the highest end anyone would guess. I can imagine they will lose a few and flip a few. The GOP would have to have a wave election AND no Trump to keep non-GOP from voting and outvoting the Dems in House seats in 2020. Both sides are charged up and ready to vote.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

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