Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

1
Two Cornell University professors working with data from NORC at the University of Chicago.
Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy.

But does the standard presidential approval question actually capture what voters think of Trump’s job performance? There are several reasons it might not tell the full story. For one, in this hyper-partisan era, presidential approval numbers have become increasingly polarized and don’t move around all that much, so they may now say more about which “side” people are on (pro-Trump or anti-Trump, Republican or Democrat) than voters’ actual evaluation of how the president is doing.

So we (Enns and Schuldt) have worked to develop a hopefully more nuanced approach to measuring presidential approval, where we ask respondents how favorably they feel toward Trump relative to other notable Republicans. By not explicitly asking respondents whether they approve or disapprove of the president, we avoid forcing respondents to take sides, as they do in the standard presidential approval question. Instead, respondents from both parties evaluate Trump in comparison to other Republicans, like former President George W. Bush, the late Sen. John McCain, McCain’s former running mate Sarah Palin, Vice President Mike Pence, and former President Ronald Reagan. (We selected these specific Republicans because they range from the highly regarded Reagan, who is often viewed as the voice of modern conservatism, to Palin, the former Alaska governor whose time in national politics was much shorter and less influential.)

We’re most interested in how the public views Trump when they aren’t asked about the president in isolation. Do respondents rate him as highly as other Republicans? Less highly? And does this help clarify whether partisan cheerleading is masking respondents’ actual assessments of Trump in the traditional presidential approval question?

This is now our second survey where we’ve measured Trump’s favorability among likely voters, and in both surveys, we found that the standard presidential approval question may be overestimating Trump’s popularity. Our first survey was conducted before the 2018 midterm elections (July 3 to July 12) and our second survey was conducted soon after the Dec. 18 House vote that formally impeached the president (Dec. 20 to Dec. 22), but in both instances, likely voters rated Trump toward the bottom of our list of Republicans.
Before the midterms, Trump’s favorability rating was statistically indistinguishable from Pence’s, and only Palin was rated less favorably. Following impeachment, Trump was even lower relative to the other Republicans we asked about. Not only is he the least popular president to run for reelection since Gerald Ford according to polls asking the standard presidential approval question, but in our measure, he is now also rated less favorably than his vice president. He’s also essentially tied with Palin for the least favorable Republican on our list, which is notable because when respondents are asked the traditional favorability question, Palin’s numbers are even lower than Trump’s — in 2016, an ABC News-Washington Post poll found that just 30 percent of the public had a favorable impression of the former governor.

In terms of how Trump’s support breaks down along party lines, we also broke out our favorability rankings by Democrats, Republicans and independents.1 There we saw some pretty stark divisions, like the ones you see in the standard presidential approval question. For instance, Democrats, not surprisingly, ranked Trump last and ranked McCain the highest. Likewise, Republicans ranked Trump highly, behind only Reagan in our December poll. But among independents, Trump’s position was perhaps more telling. This group, which is typically viewed as potential swing voters, ranked Trump at the bottom of the list — statistically tied with both Palin and Pence.
Image

As with all survey data, there is uncertainty around these estimates. For example, although it appears that independents rate Trump slightly lower than Palin and Pence, their uncertainty bands overlap enough that we can’t say for sure that Trump rates the lowest of those three. But the bottom line is that the president appears even more unpopular than previously thought, and more disliked than the standard presidential approval question is able to reveal. Although the electoral implications of Trump’s unpopularity and impeachment remain to be seen, the data we do have isn’t promising for Trump.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... ing-shows/

Image
Last edited by highdesert on Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

2
i certainly hope that he is not viewed as favorably as the polls suggest. his Core Constituency has been reported as under 40% for the last couple of years ,and we hear regularly about some disaffected group splintering off, and yet his CC still seems to be in the mid-30s. how can this be? are his supporters so loud that they are overreported, or are they so anti-liberal (and moderate, because there's nothing of moderation to him) that they favor him even though they dislike him?
i was in a gun shop (2 in fact) today and got the full dose of clown-love. :blink: :crazy: :sick:

no matter what the polls say, vote! i don't care what the polls say, do not become complacent.
i'm retired. what's your excuse?

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

3
Most gun owners who value the 2A (present company excluded) will vote for Trump because the alternative is....

Most folk who believe they are one business deal away from wealth will vote for Trump because the alternative is...

Most fearful insular folk will vote for Trump because the alternative is....

Most people who hate Obamacare but love the ACA will vote for Trump because the alternative is...

The Dems suck ass at messaging. And guns. Especially guns.

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

7
senorgrand wrote: Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:58 pm The only thing that matters is that more voters than not in swing states...I think national polls for President are dumb
Largely, yeah. 12 states really matter usually in presidential elections. Of those, probably 4 will be the turning point for 2020
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

National popularity is irrelevant. What is he polling in the states that will determine the outcome of the election. The pollsters should be spending every waking moment doing polls in the 12 and more in the 4 than any other place. T has a very narrow path to victory, but underestimating him and not realizing where the battle actually is like what happened in 2016 ensures that he'll get another 4 years.
“Do the best you can until you know better. Then when you know better, do better.”
- Maya Angelou

Image

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

8
shinzen wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:03 amT has a very narrow path to victory, but underestimating him and not realizing where the battle actually is like what happened in 2016 ensures that he'll get another 4 years.
Yup, they underestimated Trump in 2016 and could very well do it again. A picture of where things stand now, but they are in flux and Trump is gathering a huge war chest for this election. Any states in light blue and pink could go tossup or go deeper red or blue.
https://www.270towin.com

A lot depends on the nominee and the issues they pursue in the general election. That person needs issues that appeal to the most voters and don't alienate Independents. Democrats need Independents they can't win the EC without them and the graph above shows they could be ripe for picking.

Also, interesting advice.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/democra ... 2020.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

9
highdesert wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:25 am Also, interesting advice.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/27/democra ... 2020.html
That's worth a read.
If the DNC has any power to put a lid on these kinds of comments from Democratic candidates and their supporters, it needs to exert that power right now. The “we think you’re stupid and we hate and fear you… now vote for us” line has never worked because there’s no way it can.
In many ways, Dems are pushing white voters to Trump. While I fully acknowledge and agree that the reign of the white man should close in favor of equity for all, it needs to be framed better by Dems or we're going to see more of that segment head Trump's way this coming election. I still believe this was a major reason he won. Insular scared folk will vote for the bully projecting the illusion of defending them... (see, there I go with insulting his base)

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

10
Harry Enter at CNN
Trump's approval rating among voters stands at 45%. That's no worse than it was a month ago (44%). It's the highest it's been among voters since July. Prior to that, you'd have to go all the way back to March 2017 to find anything as high.

This suggests that Trump's impeachment has not affected how people feel about him overall. That shouldn't be surprising, given how few voters care about impeachment.

Dig into the numbers deeper and you find some actually encouraging news for the President. His approval rating in the battleground states (i.e. the 15 states with the closest margins in the 2016 election) is at 48%. His disapproval rating in the same states is 48%, which makes for a net approval rating of 0 points. To put this in perspective, Trump won these states in aggregate by only a point in 2016.

His net approval rating suggests the political environment in these places really hasn't shifted too much over the past three years. Indeed, Trump's net approval rating last month in these states was -2 points. The movement from -2 points to 0 points is statistically insignificant. It does back up the idea, though, that impeachment hasn't really hurt the President.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/politics ... index.html
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

12
As long as the person running against Trump isn't historically unpopular, it can be a competitive race.

I think the polls and news media coverage is just to pretend the race is exciting. Biden and Bernie have been in the lead the whole time. Reality is boring and they want ratings for their "debates" and town hall coverage.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

13
K9s wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:36 pm As long as the person running against Trump isn't historically unpopular, it can be a competitive race.

I think the polls and news media coverage is just to pretend the race is exciting. Biden and Bernie have been in the lead the whole time. Reality is boring and they want ratings for their "debates" and town hall coverage.
Well, political ads really
Image


"Person, woman, man, camera, TV."

Re: Is Trump more unpopular than the polls are showing?

15
sikacz wrote: Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:04 pm What does it matter when less than 60 percent of the electorate show up at the polls and the candidates are crap.
Well... gerrymandering, voter suppression, and public schools/libraries/parks/hospitals/etc funding cuts. Every vote can count in a local or state election.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests