Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

226
GOPerfect wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:18 am I believe that our enemies with hit us with a nasty little nuke that will take out our power grids. Life as we know it will end. Maybe the US needs a reset?
Yes, our enemies would like to push our Reset button.
(“Reset” translates to something else in Russian, as Hillary found to her chagrin)

“A nasty little nuke” is an interesting word choice, not something an American would typically say. It’s more like a European construction. No doubt it’s your claimed Dutch background. Are you Dutch? Russians aren’t European; they’re Asiatic with Asiatic sensibilities so when you said in your Intro that you’re in New York and your GOPerfect screenname is the name of your familiy’s business in the Netherlands I guess I have to believe you. After all, I liked every Dutch person I’ve met...
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

228
HuckleberryFun wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:25 am
GOPerfect wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:18 am I believe that our enemies with hit us with a nasty little nuke that will take out our power grids. Life as we know it will end. Maybe the US needs a reset?
<snippage>

... when you said in your Intro that you’re in New York and your GOPerfect screenname is the name of your familiy’s business in the Netherlands I guess I have to believe you.
Well, GOPerfect exists, no problem there. A link was even provided in the intro thread......
"We have met the enemy and he is us." Pogo.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

229
SailDesign wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:46 pm
HuckleberryFun wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:25 am
GOPerfect wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:18 am I believe that our enemies with hit us with a nasty little nuke that will take out our power grids. Life as we know it will end. Maybe the US needs a reset?
<snippage>

... when you said in your Intro that you’re in New York and your GOPerfect screenname is the name of your familiy’s business in the Netherlands I guess I have to believe you.
Well, GOPerfect exists, no problem there. A link was even provided in the intro thread......
The travel agency, though, is spelled "GoPerfect" - our new friend may have 'borrowed' the business name and capitalized the 'O' to signal his affection for the GOP. Maybe a mod/admin can check IP addresses.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

230
koolaidblue wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:34 am At this point I think it would be preferable :ninja:

But my understanding is that if an EMP was detonated or earth was hit by a massive CME (like the Carrington event) it would also fry off grid solar systems and anything with circuits/semi conductors within line of sight.

The idea of localised solar off grid sounds great for 99% of the time but if one of the above events occurr that would also be lost.


Hmm... Its a tricky situation that I worry about. I can only imagine how people would (or wouldn't) behave in something like that.
This is something I want to understand better. Microgrids are more resilient every other time so should be implemented rapidly anyway in our age of runaway climate change and global weirding.

It appears that microgrids are the best option even if we had a CME or EMP, at least because they would limit the cascade failures that take down the conventional grid.
http://www.govtech.com/computing/Space- ... -Life.html
https://2o9ub0417chl2lg6m43em6psi2i-wpe ... RT36-1.pdf

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

231
SailDesign wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:46 pm
HuckleberryFun wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:25 am
GOPerfect wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:18 am I believe that our enemies with hit us with a nasty little nuke that will take out our power grids. Life as we know it will end. Maybe the US needs a reset?
<snippage>

... when you said in your Intro that you’re in New York and your GOPerfect screenname is the name of your familiy’s business in the Netherlands I guess I have to believe you.
Well, GOPerfect exists, no problem there. A link was even provided in the intro thread......
A link was provided in the intro thread after I called him out for his screen name. A quick Google search to find something called “GoPerfect” and construct a flimsy alibi is not hard. It matters not, because we have an “all are welcome here” policy which I’m now holding to through gritted teeth as the forum takes a right turn.
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

232
AndyH wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:25 pm
koolaidblue wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:34 am At this point I think it would be preferable :ninja:

But my understanding is that if an EMP was detonated or earth was hit by a massive CME (like the Carrington event) it would also fry off grid solar systems and anything with circuits/semi conductors within line of sight.

The idea of localised solar off grid sounds great for 99% of the time but if one of the above events occurr that would also be lost.


Hmm... Its a tricky situation that I worry about. I can only imagine how people would (or wouldn't) behave in something like that.
This is something I want to understand better. Microgrids are more resilient every other time so should be implemented rapidly anyway in our age of runaway climate change and global weirding.

It appears that microgrids are the best option even if we had a CME or EMP, at least because they would limit the cascade failures that take down the conventional grid.
http://www.govtech.com/computing/Space- ... -Life.html
https://2o9ub0417chl2lg6m43em6psi2i-wpe ... RT36-1.pdf

Thanks for those links I had not read them before.

I'm still skeptical for a home solar setup being able to survive an EMP.

once the E1 and E2 waves from the ionosphere reach the solar system on the roof I believe the circuits would be fried as a result. Now by some stroke of luck your home off the grid solar system was not in line of sight to the detonation point then your good to go and will live like a king. So for the threat of EMP/CME maybe it will work, Maybe not.


Where it really shows value is not being connected to the grid so you would not be subjected to a cascading failure in some sort of grid down scenario. (either a well coordinated and larger scale kinetic attacks like the Metcalf substation attack) a cyber attack, system failure etc..

This was interesting and ominous as it just quietly went away. If this happened to multiple critical substations in a coordinated attack it wouldn't be good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack



An interesting book than really made me decide were screwed was Ted Koppel "lights out"

I'm sure you have also heard of "one second after" by William Forstchen

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

233
The EMP 99% doomsday scenario is generally accepted by the survivalists. It really isn't so simple. One bomb really wouldn't do the trick. The type of sustained EMP attack they envision would be actually more deadly because of the explosions necessary to create that EMP attack. The radiation alone is the real problem.

The Metcalf scenario would require so many people coordinated across the country that it seems very unlikely. I guess it could happen, but there are far more likely scenarios.

No matter what, I would take my chances on the home solar/wind/whatever setup over my trust in the connected grid.
It is an unfortunate human failing that a full pocketbook often groans more loudly than an empty stomach.

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

234
koolaidblue wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:03 pm
AndyH wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:25 pm
koolaidblue wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:34 am At this point I think it would be preferable :ninja:

But my understanding is that if an EMP was detonated or earth was hit by a massive CME (like the Carrington event) it would also fry off grid solar systems and anything with circuits/semi conductors within line of sight.

The idea of localised solar off grid sounds great for 99% of the time but if one of the above events occurr that would also be lost.


Hmm... Its a tricky situation that I worry about. I can only imagine how people would (or wouldn't) behave in something like that.
This is something I want to understand better. Microgrids are more resilient every other time so should be implemented rapidly anyway in our age of runaway climate change and global weirding.

It appears that microgrids are the best option even if we had a CME or EMP, at least because they would limit the cascade failures that take down the conventional grid.
http://www.govtech.com/computing/Space- ... -Life.html
https://2o9ub0417chl2lg6m43em6psi2i-wpe ... RT36-1.pdf

Thanks for those links I had not read them before.

I'm still skeptical for a home solar setup being able to survive an EMP.

once the E1 and E2 waves from the ionosphere reach the solar system on the roof I believe the circuits would be fried as a result. Now by some stroke of luck your home off the grid solar system was not in line of sight to the detonation point then your good to go and will live like a king. So for the threat of EMP/CME maybe it will work, Maybe not.


Where it really shows value is not being connected to the grid so you would not be subjected to a cascading failure in some sort of grid down scenario. (either a well coordinated and larger scale kinetic attacks like the Metcalf substation attack) a cyber attack, system failure etc..

This was interesting and ominous as it just quietly went away. If this happened to multiple critical substations in a coordinated attack it wouldn't be good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack



An interesting book than really made me decide were screwed was Ted Koppel "lights out"

I'm sure you have also heard of "one second after" by William Forstchen
Apparently, at least based on some of the .gov EMP reports geared more towards communications (I'm a ham), equipment doesn't need to be in a Faraday cage the way many prepper sites suggest is necessary. Equipment can be hardened so that it isn't destroyed during the event even if it's in use. Here's one useful guide especially if one is a ham:
https://www.amazon.com/EMP-Hardened-Rad ... 154077760X

We have an astrophysicist here - I hope Bucolic fills in the blanks for us!

ETA: Here's a 2008 report "Report of the Commission to Assess the Thread to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP): Critical National Infrastructures", April 2008
http://empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP ... on-7MB.pdf
Last edited by AndyH on Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

235
Are we discussing just what humans would do to each other, or taking into account that the solar flares are perfectly capable of causing a global EMP event?

Or how about fluctuating polar shifts allowing solar radiation to effectively sterilize the surface of the Earth without a stable protective magnetic shield for a few thousand years?
"It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of non-violence to cover impotence. There is hope for a violent man to become non-violent. There is no such hope for the impotent." -Gandhi

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

239
AndyH wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:28 pm
koolaidblue wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:03 pm
AndyH wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:25 pm
koolaidblue wrote: Fri Oct 19, 2018 6:34 am At this point I think it would be preferable :ninja:

But my understanding is that if an EMP was detonated or earth was hit by a massive CME (like the Carrington event) it would also fry off grid solar systems and anything with circuits/semi conductors within line of sight.

The idea of localised solar off grid sounds great for 99% of the time but if one of the above events occurr that would also be lost.


Hmm... Its a tricky situation that I worry about. I can only imagine how people would (or wouldn't) behave in something like that.
This is something I want to understand better. Microgrids are more resilient every other time so should be implemented rapidly anyway in our age of runaway climate change and global weirding.

It appears that microgrids are the best option even if we had a CME or EMP, at least because they would limit the cascade failures that take down the conventional grid.
http://www.govtech.com/computing/Space- ... -Life.html
https://2o9ub0417chl2lg6m43em6psi2i-wpe ... RT36-1.pdf

Thanks for those links I had not read them before.

I'm still skeptical for a home solar setup being able to survive an EMP.

once the E1 and E2 waves from the ionosphere reach the solar system on the roof I believe the circuits would be fried as a result. Now by some stroke of luck your home off the grid solar system was not in line of sight to the detonation point then your good to go and will live like a king. So for the threat of EMP/CME maybe it will work, Maybe not.


Where it really shows value is not being connected to the grid so you would not be subjected to a cascading failure in some sort of grid down scenario. (either a well coordinated and larger scale kinetic attacks like the Metcalf substation attack) a cyber attack, system failure etc..

This was interesting and ominous as it just quietly went away. If this happened to multiple critical substations in a coordinated attack it wouldn't be good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack



An interesting book than really made me decide were screwed was Ted Koppel "lights out"

I'm sure you have also heard of "one second after" by William Forstchen
Apparently, at least based on some of the .gov EMP reports geared more towards communications (I'm a ham), equipment doesn't need to be in a Faraday cage the way many prepper sites suggest is necessary. Equipment can be hardened so that it isn't destroyed during the event even if it's in use. Here's one useful guide especially if one is a ham:
https://www.amazon.com/EMP-Hardened-Rad ... 154077760X

We have an astrophysicist here - I hope Bucolic fills in the blanks for us!

ETA: Here's a 2008 report "Report of the Commission to Assess the Thread to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP): Critical National Infrastructures", April 2008
http://empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP ... on-7MB.pdf
kab - thanks again for bringing the EMP topic up again. I finally read the hardened radio book I linked (it's been on my to-do list for a couple of months). The book breaks down the stages of an EMP and then shows how to protect radio equipment from things coming in from the antenna and from things coming down the power grid. The same techniques (essentially RF low-pass filtering and surge suppression) work on solar gear. The beauty of it is that the parts cost less than $20. The .gov reports recommend that the techniques should be used on the entire power grid, but so far only Maine has done anything...and the DoD.
Surge arrestors, faraday cages and other devices that prevent EMP from damaging electronics, as well micro-grids that are inherently less susceptible to EMP, have been used by the Defense Department for more than 50 years to protect crucial military installations and strategic forces.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/james-wool ... 1407885281

Separately, in Grant Cunningham's book "Prepping for life", he starts with the recognition that while "anything" can happen, most of the scariest things are less likely. Since resources are finite for most of us, focusing on the 'likely' problems seems a good start before moving to the 'plausible' - and 'possible' is farther away. I guess I personally put EMP from a air-burst nuke in the possible but improbable category, while CMEs move into the 'likely' to 'plausible' area somewhere. The sun apparently has CMEs often enough but most of the time we're not in the line of fire.

This is damn sobering, though (from the EMP-Hardened Radio Communications book):
If an EMP attack or significant CME event occurs, and the population is unprepared (as it is now), the consequences are likely to be cataclysmic beyond any known historical effect, even beyond that ofa conventional world war. Woolsey & Pry, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, stated the 2008 commission had estimated a die-off of up to 90%..., due to inability to create and distribute food and water, maintain law and order, and provide medical care. Such a mortality is far beyond that of the world wars. Anarchy is the commonly-expected outcome, absent a miracle.
What would a successful EMP attack look like? The EMP Commission, in 2008, estimated that within 12 months of a nationwide blackout, up to 90% of the U.S. population could possibly perish from starvation, disease and societal breakdown.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/james-wool ... 1407885281

Gonna need to build a bigger battery...and get more ammo...

ETA... This piece on EMP Myths is worth the time.
http://futurescience.com/emp/EMP-myths.html

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

240
AndyH wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:25 am
AndyH wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:28 pm
koolaidblue wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:03 pm
AndyH wrote: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:25 pm
This is something I want to understand better. Microgrids are more resilient every other time so should be implemented rapidly anyway in our age of runaway climate change and global weirding.

It appears that microgrids are the best option even if we had a CME or EMP, at least because they would limit the cascade failures that take down the conventional grid.
http://www.govtech.com/computing/Space- ... -Life.html
https://2o9ub0417chl2lg6m43em6psi2i-wpe ... RT36-1.pdf

Thanks for those links I had not read them before.

I'm still skeptical for a home solar setup being able to survive an EMP.

once the E1 and E2 waves from the ionosphere reach the solar system on the roof I believe the circuits would be fried as a result. Now by some stroke of luck your home off the grid solar system was not in line of sight to the detonation point then your good to go and will live like a king. So for the threat of EMP/CME maybe it will work, Maybe not.


Where it really shows value is not being connected to the grid so you would not be subjected to a cascading failure in some sort of grid down scenario. (either a well coordinated and larger scale kinetic attacks like the Metcalf substation attack) a cyber attack, system failure etc..

This was interesting and ominous as it just quietly went away. If this happened to multiple critical substations in a coordinated attack it wouldn't be good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack



An interesting book than really made me decide were screwed was Ted Koppel "lights out"

I'm sure you have also heard of "one second after" by William Forstchen
Apparently, at least based on some of the .gov EMP reports geared more towards communications (I'm a ham), equipment doesn't need to be in a Faraday cage the way many prepper sites suggest is necessary. Equipment can be hardened so that it isn't destroyed during the event even if it's in use. Here's one useful guide especially if one is a ham:
https://www.amazon.com/EMP-Hardened-Rad ... 154077760X

We have an astrophysicist here - I hope Bucolic fills in the blanks for us!

ETA: Here's a 2008 report "Report of the Commission to Assess the Thread to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP): Critical National Infrastructures", April 2008
http://empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP ... on-7MB.pdf
kab - thanks again for bringing the EMP topic up again. I finally read the hardened radio book I linked (it's been on my to-do list for a couple of months). The book breaks down the stages of an EMP and then shows how to protect radio equipment from things coming in from the antenna and from things coming down the power grid. The same techniques (essentially RF low-pass filtering and surge suppression) work on solar gear. The beauty of it is that the parts cost less than $20. The .gov reports recommend that the techniques should be used on the entire power grid, but so far only Maine has done anything...and the DoD.
Surge arrestors, faraday cages and other devices that prevent EMP from damaging electronics, as well micro-grids that are inherently less susceptible to EMP, have been used by the Defense Department for more than 50 years to protect crucial military installations and strategic forces.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/james-wool ... 1407885281

Separately, in Grant Cunningham's book "Prepping for life", he starts with the recognition that while "anything" can happen, most of the scariest things are less likely. Since resources are finite for most of us, focusing on the 'likely' problems seems a good start before moving to the 'plausible' - and 'possible' is farther away. I guess I personally put EMP from a air-burst nuke in the possible but improbable category, while CMEs move into the 'likely' to 'plausible' area somewhere. The sun apparently has CMEs often enough but most of the time we're not in the line of fire.

This is damn sobering, though (from the EMP-Hardened Radio Communications book):
If an EMP attack or significant CME event occurs, and the population is unprepared (as it is now), the consequences are likely to be cataclysmic beyond any known historical effect, even beyond that ofa conventional world war. Woolsey & Pry, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, stated the 2008 commission had estimated a die-off of up to 90%..., due to inability to create and distribute food and water, maintain law and order, and provide medical care. Such a mortality is far beyond that of the world wars. Anarchy is the commonly-expected outcome, absent a miracle.
What would a successful EMP attack look like? The EMP Commission, in 2008, estimated that within 12 months of a nationwide blackout, up to 90% of the U.S. population could possibly perish from starvation, disease and societal breakdown.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/james-wool ... 1407885281

Gonna need to build a bigger battery...and get more ammo...

ETA... This piece on EMP Myths is worth the time.
http://futurescience.com/emp/EMP-myths.html

If you've never read the book one second after by William Forstchen it might be worth your time. It may bring up things you had never considered. It legit scared me to the point where I decided I needed to do something and started getting into prepping..

https://www.amazon.com/Second-After-Joh ... ref=plSrch


And I've made my own barometer to determine how severe a crisis is, and how people will behave. If a disaster is localized and our national supply chain relatively stays in tact, I think things will return to normal, people will know they will return to normal and will behave. In some ways it will bring out the best in people helping each other. It will still suck but They know help is on the way.

However, if it's more than just localized and our supply chain breaks down, people start starving or dehydrating to death, and it doesn't appear help will be on the way, that's when all hell will break lose.

Here for anyone who has no idea of, or a basic idea this may explain EMPs/ CMEs and why it's a big deal. it's not a perfect video and a few things are arguably wrong but its good to give people an idea. and its from natgeo

https://youtu.be/3XWAy1cIu6E

And here's another book by Ted Koppel explaining the fragility of our grid. He even admits he expected to write a boring report but the more investigating he did the more worried he became and he now preps to a degree as a result of his own research
https://www.amazon.com/Lights-Out-Cyber ... ref=plSrch

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

242
HuckleberryFun wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:05 am Thanks, koolaidblue. And you Liberal preppers also be sure to read Forstchen’s other works co-authored with Newt Gingrich.
If you choose to not read the foreword written by newt that is your choice. If I remember its not even a political writing just a topic he wrote about assuming because of some of the intelligence reports he's read and he thinks it's serious. If you want to discredit an entire book which Is a realistic look at life after an EMP in small town America because you don't like who wrote the foreword and what that person may or may not say then that's your decision.



Unless you are referring to their civil war series which was co-authored. But I'm only taking about one second after as it is relevant to the topic at hand.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

243
koolaidblue wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:18 am
HuckleberryFun wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:05 am Thanks, koolaidblue. And you Liberal preppers also be sure to read Forstchen’s other works co-authored with Newt Gingrich.
If you choose to not read the foreword written by newt that is your choice. If I remember its not even a political writing just a topic he wrote about assuming because of some of the intelligence reports he's read and he thinks it's serious. If you want to discredit an entire book which Is a realistic look at life after an EMP in small town America because you don't like who wrote the foreword and what that person may or may not say then that's your decision.
Not at all. Forstchen makes some good points in his books. Just pointing out the gateway drug / gateway book aspect.
I’ve read his and many other books and articles on EMP. Just because an author leans a certain way doesn’t mean he can’t be right about something (no pun intended).
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Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

244
HuckleberryFun wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:22 am
koolaidblue wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:18 am
HuckleberryFun wrote: Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:05 am Thanks, koolaidblue. And you Liberal preppers also be sure to read Forstchen’s other works co-authored with Newt Gingrich.
If you choose to not read the foreword written by newt that is your choice. If I remember its not even a political writing just a topic he wrote about assuming because of some of the intelligence reports he's read and he thinks it's serious. If you want to discredit an entire book which Is a realistic look at life after an EMP in small town America because you don't like who wrote the foreword and what that person may or may not say then that's your decision.
Not at all. Forstchen makes some good points in his books. Just pointing out the gateway drug / gateway book aspect.
I’ve read his and many other books and articles on EMP. Just because an author leans a certain way doesn’t mean he can’t be right about something (no pun intended).
Fair enough. And I can't really disagree. As the one second after series progresses books 2 and 3 take more political undertones of anti authoitarian and anti deep state. But IMO book 1 which is the most important for people to understand remains largely free of partisan politics except considered at local town levels which is interesting.

Re: What's the worst you really think would happen?

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I'll toss this in for giggles.

https://www.amazing1.com/emp.html
Assembled pulse wave generators in choice of 12 vdc or 115 vac. Pulse rate up to 20 per minute - Requires emitter antenna and waveguide parallel terminated transmission line (not included).

Attention to those wanting to build their own EMP Pulse Gun

We now have assembly schematics, instruction booklet, 20 colored photos of construction, and other data for those wanting to build a medium- to high-power pulse source. Plans show using the latest fast-discharge 100kV high energy density capacitors capable of 1500 joules energy storage. Discharges up to 80kV depending on utilized spark gap. This energy is switched using the latest triggered spark switching technology providing very steep rise times at multi-gigawatt peak powers. Included data shows Current controlled programmable charger, Trigger circuitry, Discharge circuit and all other necessary data. Antennas and wave guides are shown.

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