Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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I've been watching this guy for about six weeks. He has solid theories on quakes and how they move around plate boundaries. But he has some sketchy ideas about the relationship between quake locations and drilling sites, power lines, and mines. Not whack. Just a bit sketchy. I watch and learn and think about what he says wrt the magnitude and movement of quakes.

A 7 out in the ocean would be better than a 9 there. Hope for several 4's to bleed off the energy. Stay safe up there.

CDFingers
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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There are some - lets call them deeply pessimistic - takes on the effect of the inevitable 9 on the PNW. Japan got hit by a tsunami out of nowhere in 1700, turned out to be Cascadia half a world away. Fortunately the historic recurrence interval is more like 600 years than 300. Unfortunately, the variance is large. OTOH, I grew up with similarly pessimistic takes on LA and San Fran. They've done okay.

I barely have the patience to watch 20 second ballistics gel videos, much less anything longer on YouTube. Sure, it's fun to watch Hickok smoking pots, but it's just a format I can't focus on for longer than a couple minutes. Means I learn something new every time the same documentary comes on.

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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Last December, a segment on OPB.
New earthquake research to be presented by Oregon-based geologists next week sounds like a B movie plot: A great earthquake along the Pacific Northwest's offshore Cascadia fault triggers another great earthquake on the northern San Andreas Fault. In what may be a case where life imitates art – or more precisely, where science catches up to the fertile imaginations of Hollywood script writers – attendees at a major earth science meeting in San Francisco will hear evidence that this cascade of disaster happened many times over the past couple of millennia. "I mean, Cascadia is big enough by itself," said lead researcher Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University. "But if you add in San Francisco and the North Coast, it is literally almost a grade B movie scenario that people don't want to think about that much."

An NBC miniseries titled "10.5" (as in an off-the-charts magnitude earthquake) actually brought the catastrophic scenario to prime time viewers back in 2004. The first of many quakes in the made-for-TV flick toppled Seattle's Space Needle. That initial rupture triggered a cascade of stronger quakes, which collapsed the Golden Gate Bridge too. By the end, part of California fell into the ocean.
Goldfinger's team reconstructs the history of great earthquakes along the West Coast by pulling sediment samples from lake bottoms and offshore underwater canyons. The long, skinny tubes of mud contain deposits from underwater landslides caused by long ago earthquakes. Those earthquake traces can be carbon dated. For this investigation, Goldfinger compared the sediment records from the southern end of the Cascadia fault zone with the northern San Andreas Fault, which extends under the San Francisco Bay area.

"I've been working on the chronology for San Andreas and Cascadia and some of the events I can't really tell them apart in time," Goldfinger explained. "They seem to have happened at more or less the same time."

Goldfinger said he found nine to eleven instances over roughly the last 3,000 years where a Cascadia earthquake seems to have triggered a San Andreas quake. The vast majority of great Cascadia quakes during that period have a correlation on the San Andreas Fault. He added that his analysis of landslide traces found no evidence for the stress transfer working in reverse – from south to north.

The most recent Cascadia megaquake happened in 1700. Goldfinger said it looks like the San Andreas went off around the same year. The northern San Andreas Fault also went off in 1906, causing the Great San Francisco Earthquake, but the Cascadia fault stayed quiet then.

The two faults touch at a place called the Mendocino Triple Junction, which is offshore of Mendocino County, California.

"When you have two big faults that connect directly, there's a pretty high probability they’re going to interact in some way," Goldfinger said. "So one fault triggering another, or even becoming synchronized with the other for a period of time, is not a fantastical scenario. It is actually a fairly likely scenario. It just isn’t on the radar anywhere yet."

Goldfinger acknowledged that carbon dating has limitations on its precision. The margin of error means that what appears to be a one-two punch of Pacific Coast earthquakes could potentially have been separated by years or even decades.
Seismologist John Vidale of the University of Southern California said Goldfinger is "out on the edge" with his findings. Vidale, the former director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, treated the research cautiously because the San Andreas Fault and Cascadia Subduction Zone move differently.

"There are a lot of details that are still hazy," Vidale said after noting that the tectonic plate driving the Cascadia fault moves downward while the San Andreas fault features sideways movement – what geologists call "strike-slip."

"It's not so common to have linkage across two different kinds of faults, from a subduction zone onto a strike-slip fault," Vidale said. "So this would be kind of new and interesting."
https://www.opb.org/news/article/northw ... arthquake/
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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wings wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:34 am I grew up with similarly pessimistic takes on LA and San Fran. They've done okay.
i have decided that los angeles will not be happy until it is physically north of san francisco.
CDFingers wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:22 am But he has some sketchy ideas about the relationship between quake locations and drilling sites, power lines, and mines. Not whack. Just a bit sketchy.
i don't know...he seemed a little off when he "just happened to 'discover'" the jim creek naval vlf station, which happens to be the most powerful radio transmitter on the continent, or according to some, on the planet, that's has been around since 1950 ....
sketchy? maybe. bad acting? definitely.

i live 35 miles from one of north america's few active volcanos. the one that, had it blown in the opposite direction, would have decimated portland oregon in 1980. i keep enough food and water and toilet paper around for its repeat performance.
Subliterate Buffooery of the right...
Literate Ignorance of the left...
We Are So Screwed

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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CDFingers wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:34 pm Here's some interesting history of the geology of the PNW...

CDFingers
I Knew It!!!


I told em and told em. But would they listen? Noooo! The fucks.
I spent a fair portion of two years working on that damn volcano...and I knew it was a conspiracy.

Canada. Bah!
Subliterate Buffooery of the right...
Literate Ignorance of the left...
We Are So Screwed

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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LOL!

I find this subject totally interesting from an academic standpoint. I've also loved researching the flipping of the magnetic poles--so much fun we might have, eh. A spinning ball of molten nickle and iron bumps up against the undersides of all the global plates until a new relative balance is achieved.

Humans are like tardigrades clinging optimistically to the back of a breaching blue whale where an optimist like me will love the weightless feeling at the top of the arc: "So far, so good."

GoZeeRah.

CDFingers
Crazy cat peekin' through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire, like a diamond-eyed Jack

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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rolandson wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:47 am
wings wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 9:34 am I grew up with similarly pessimistic takes on LA and San Fran. They've done okay.
i have decided that los angeles will not be happy until it is physically north of san francisco.
Let's see. 381.6 miles along I-5, divide by 0.62, carry the two, divide by a slip rate of 20 meters per millennium - hmm.

You got 30,774,194 years or so.
rolandson wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:47 am
CDFingers wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 7:22 am But he has some sketchy ideas about the relationship between quake locations and drilling sites, power lines, and mines. Not whack. Just a bit sketchy.
i live 35 miles from one of north america's few active volcanos. the one that, had it blown in the opposite direction, would have decimated portland oregon in 1980. i keep enough food and water and toilet paper around for its repeat performance.
Been there, done that. Wasn't so bad. Rainier and the Sisters are the ones the USGS eyes warily and don't turn their backs on. Cascadia, now. That'll shut down infrastructure something fierce. Nothing to be done for it but prep, or move.
featureless wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 10:44 am Eathquakes are something I have had food and water preps for going on 25 years. Then, put them out of mind. There's fuckall that can be done about them and zero warning. Someday, a big one will hit. Who knows if it will be in my lifetime. I would not volunteer to live in a tsunami zone, though. :)
This. I respect the ocean far too much to tempt her.

Re: PNW Earthquake warning

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wings wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:51 pm Let's see. 381.6 miles along I-5, divide by 0.62, carry the two, divide by a slip rate of 20 meters per millennium - hmm.

You got 30,774,194 years or so
unless mother nature decides to speed it up some.
Image


always liked that album.
wings wrote: Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:51 pmWasn't so bad.
there are 57 families who might disagree with you.
Subliterate Buffooery of the right...
Literate Ignorance of the left...
We Are So Screwed

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