Load these data points into your Random Access Memory
1 - Russia’s military is incompetent, and doesn’t have a chance against the West.
2 - Russia’s military has ALWAYS been incompetent, and they have always known that. Which is why their WW3 scenarios always include tactical nukes, they have no other way to “win”.
3 – Russians are completely convinced they only way they can secure their nation from invasion is to go back to the old Soviet lines (and then some). They feel an existential threat as long as they have their current borders.
4 – They will ALWAYS be a threat to eastern European nations because they want them as a buffer against the west, they are NOT going to let this go for the foreseeable future. (note- this doesn’t have to be rational to be so)
5 – If Russa and any NATO nation end up fighting, Russia is going to get stomped, which leaves them with what option?
Conclusions
1 – It is absolutely imperative Ukraine wins this war, because they will just shift to the next country if they win, and the cycle continues.
2 – NATO troops cannot fight this war.
3 – Putin thinks there’s a chance the Republicans can pull a win out for him, and cut funding…but…
4 - US support for Ukraine is important, but not critical. If the idiots in the Republican party manage to turn off the spigot, Europe will step in…because they have to…because they know they’re next. And they’ll hate us for it.
I also think its time for the US to go big and public with nuclear deterrence. Russia has to constantly be reminded that we are ready, willing, and able to commit MAD. We need to demonstrate that our nuclear readiness level is 10x theirs. Again, deterrence. The best war is the one you don’t have to fight.
Ukraine - what's at stake.
1“I think there’s a right-wing conspiracy to promote the idea of a left-wing conspiracy”